Norway vs Senegal Prediction: 23.06.2026 World Cup

Norway and Senegal meet at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on June 23 in what is already a decisive Group I fixture at the 2026 World Cup. Norway opened their campaign with a dominant 4-1 win over Iraq, sitting top of the group with three points. Senegal, on the other hand, fell 1-3 to France in their opener and now face a must-not-lose situation. The Lions of Teranga have struggled in recent weeks, going winless in their last three matches, which makes this a golden opportunity for Ståle Solbakken’s side to effectively seal qualification with a game to spare.

Erling Haaland is the obvious name to watch for Norway. He scored twice in the opening win over Iraq and leads the line with the kind of physicality that will test any defence. For Senegal, Sadio Mané carries the attacking responsibility, having netted two goals in his last three appearances. His directness and experience at the highest level make him the one player capable of turning the game on its head for Pape Thiaw’s side.

Hot stat: Norway scored four goals against Iraq in their opening group game, and their last five matches have produced an average of over two goals per game for them alone. That attacking output, combined with Senegal’s defensive vulnerability against France, points firmly toward goals in this match.

Norway vs Senegal Prediction

Norway are the stronger side on current form and have the structural advantage of already having three points in the bag. Their 4-4-2 setup gives them width and a reliable defensive shape, while Haaland and Alexander Sørloth provide a physical front line that punishes teams who give space. Senegal lost to France 3-1 and drew 0-0 with Saudi Arabia before that, showing inconsistency in attack and fragility in transition.

Senegal commit more fouls on average across their last five matches, 32 compared to Norway’s 25, and have picked up a red card in that stretch. That discipline issue could be costly against a Norway side that wins free kicks and uses them effectively in dangerous areas. Norway’s pass accuracy of 853 out of 959 passes also reflects a team that controls the ball well and limits transitions for the opposition.

Senegal’s 17 interceptions in five matches suggests they do press and work hard defensively, but their pass accuracy of 897 from 1032 passes shows they move the ball better than Norway. The Lions are capable of holding possession but have not been clinical enough up front, with Nicolas Jackson failing to register a goal in three appearances.

We predict Norway to win this match. Their form, their attacking firepower, and Senegal’s current confidence issues all point toward a Norwegian victory. The value sits on Norway to win and over 2.5 goals, given both teams carry attacking threat and the pressure on Senegal to score.

Team Analysis

Norway have been in excellent shape heading into this World Cup. Their last five matches show a team that knows how to win, going 4-1 against Iraq, drawing 1-1 with Morocco in a competitive friendly, and beating Sweden 3-1. The draw against Switzerland and a narrow 1-2 loss to the Netherlands are the only blemishes, and both came against top-tier European opposition. Solbakken’s side look organised and dangerous in transition, with Haaland and Sørloth giving them a reliable focal point in attack. Martin Odegaard pulls the strings in midfield and has contributed one goal and one assist in his last two matches.

Senegal’s recent form is a concern. They drew 0-0 with Saudi Arabia, lost 2-3 to the USA in a friendly, and then fell 1-3 to France in their World Cup opener. Before those three matches, their form was stronger, with wins over Peru and a 3-1 victory against Gambia, but those results came against weaker opposition. Mané remains their most consistent threat, but the team around him has been inconsistent. Nicolas Jackson has been particularly wasteful, recording three offsides and no goals across three recent appearances. Pape Thiaw will need to find solutions quickly if Senegal are to stay alive in this tournament.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Norway vs Senegal stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Norway the Favourite

• Moneyline Norway 2.10 | Senegal 3.28
• Draw 3.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 1.95
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.90 | No 1.85

The bookmakers have Norway as clear favourites at around 2.10, which reflects their current form and Senegal’s poor start to the tournament. Senegal at 3.28 carries some value if you believe Mané can inspire a reaction, but their recent performances do not support that case strongly enough. The draw at 3.40 is interesting given Senegal’s defensive solidity in some matches, but Norway’s attacking depth makes a goalless stalemate unlikely. Over 2.5 goals looks the most sensible line to back, given Norway’s last game produced five goals and Senegal conceded three against France.

Possible Starting Lineups

Norway Possible Starting Eleven

Solbakken is expected to stick with his 4-4-2 formation that worked well against Iraq. Ørjan Nyland starts in goal after making four saves in his recent outings. The back four picks itself, with Ajer and Heggem providing the central cover and Ryerson and Moller Wolfe offering width from full-back. Sander Berge and Fredrik Aursnes anchor the midfield, giving Odegaard the freedom to operate between the lines. Odegaard is the key creative outlet, and his combination play with Haaland has been sharp. Haaland leads the attack alongside Sørloth, and both carry genuine goal threat.

Senegal Possible Starting Eleven

Pape Thiaw is likely to persist with a 4-3-3 shape, relying on Edouard Mendy in goal, who has made nine saves across his recent appearances and remains one of the best keepers in world football. Koulibaly and Niakhaté form a solid central defensive partnership, though both were exposed against France. Idrissa Gueye and Lamine Camara provide industry in the middle, with Diatta adding creativity. Up front, Mané is the focal point and the one player with the quality to change the match at any moment. Jackson needs a performance here to justify his place, having been ineffective in recent matches.

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The Verdict

Norway enter this match as the form side and the team with the most to play for in a positive sense. Their attacking numbers across the last five games are strong, 21 total shots and 16 corners, and their disciplined midfield limits the space opponents need to build momentum. Senegal have more interceptions in their recent five matches, which reflects their pressing style, but they have also committed 32 fouls and conceded in three of their last three games.

We predict a Norway win with both teams scoring. Mané is too good to be completely shut out, and Norway will not sit back. The most likely outcome is a 2-1 or 3-1 victory for Norway, with Haaland registering at least one goal. The over 2.5 line and Norway to win is our primary recommendation, with Haaland to score anytime as the value pick on the side.

Read also: Norway vs Senegal Betting Odds
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Read also: Norway 2026 World Cup Preview: Squad, Odds, Prediction & Best Bets
Read also: Senegal 2026 World Cup Preview: Squad, Odds, Prediction & Best Bets
Read also: 2026 World Cup Group I Preview: France, Norway, Senegal & Iraq – Odds, Predictions & Best Bets

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