New Zealand vs Ukraine Prediction: 10.06.2025 International Friendly 2025 Preview

As the summer fixtures roll on, international friendlies serve up a fresh opportunity for teams to experiment and fine-tune tactics in a less pressurised environment—yet, make no mistake, New Zealand against Ukraine at Brann Stadion carries more intrigue than your average June affair. Both managers, Darren Bazeley and Sergiy Rebrov, know that these matches may appear inconsequential on the surface, but each is desperate to see their squad assert dominance and build momentum looking ahead. Interestingly, Ukraine’s form lately has been rocky, and New Zealand’s uncommon uptick raises eyebrows—could an upset be on the cards even if the bookies make Ukraine massive favourites?

For New Zealand, look to striker Chris Wood, who has always carried the burden of goal-scoring and is coming off a confidence-boosting winner against Ivory Coast. On the Ukrainian side, all eyes are on midfield maestro Mykola Shaparenko, a pivot in Rebrov’s system, whose ball distribution could prove crucial against a physical Kiwi outfit. The true measure here will rest not only on marquee names but also on which side can better stitch their collective game together on neutral ground.

The “hot stat”? Despite Ukraine’s talented squad, the recent 4-2 defeat to Canada revealed shocking defensive vulnerabilities—conceding four while controlling large stretches of play. That sort of fragility simply cannot be ignored with Wood lurking about.

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New Zealand vs Ukraine prediction

The best value here lies in backing “Ukraine to win” but adding an insurance with “Draw No Bet on Ukraine” at solid odds. Why? Despite Ukraine’s recent defensive capitulation, their overall squad depth, technical superiority in midfield, and vast international experience should eventually overpower New Zealand’s defensive shape—on paper, at least! Still, with Ukraine averaging over 1.5 goals per match in their last competitive run and New Zealand being in superb winning rhythm throughout 2025, a nervy contest with goals on both sides is on the cards.

Stylistically, Ukraine employ a high-possession game, looking to dominate the ball and probe patiently through middle-third triangles, all orchestrated by Shaparenko and the wider channels. That’s not without risk, as their backline was exposed to pace by Canada and lapses against Belgium in their last few matches. Their willingness to commit numbers forward often results in an open match, with more fouls committed in midfield as they press to recover possession. New Zealand, meanwhile, keep things disciplined and direct—with low foul counts, relying on compact, physical defending and set-piece threats, particularly when Wood leads the line. Both teams’ tendency to concede corners and draw fouls also bumps up chances for set-piece drama.

Team Analysis

New Zealand: The All Whites come into this clash off their most impressive stretch of the year—three matches, three wins, and not a single goal conceded in 2025. Their latest triumph, a 1-0 win over Ivory Coast, served as a statement of discipline and patience, with Chris Wood proving once again why he’s their talisman. While low on possession stats, New Zealand’s organisation and counter-attacking intent shine through; they’re happy to cede the ball but strike decisively on the break or via set pieces. The big question is whether this formula holds versus the technical sharpness of Ukraine.

Ukraine: In stark contrast, Ukraine’s last match ended in a distressing 2-4 defeat to Canada—a match that produced plenty of attacking spark but further highlighted defensive shortcomings. Their 4-2-3-1 remains unchanged, though recent results are a mixed bag (just one win in their last three). Nevertheless, Rebrov’s men have the tools to bounce back: width from Mykhailo Mudryk, tempo-setting from Shaparenko, and the threat of Dovbyk up top. The worry remains in how high their defensive line plays; opponents have found joy when they bypass midfield pressure and go direct.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full New Zealand vs Ukraine stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Ukraine the favourite

• Moneyline New Zealand 4.80 | Ukraine 1.73
• Draw 3.78
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.95 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.06 | No 1.68

With Ukraine hovering around 1.73 on the moneyline, the bookmakers are firm in their belief that the European side takes it. New Zealand’s odds reflect their underdog role, and there’s value in that, especially given their recent defensive form. Draw looks unlikely but not entirely off the cards if New Zealand keep things tight. The goal market expects some action, with both teams to score slightly in plus money territory—no surprise, considering Ukraine’s penchant for scoring yet remaining frail at the back. For punters: Ukraine to win or cover the -1 stands out, but a 2-1 or 3-1 feels plausible given both sets’ attacking weapons and defensive wobbling.

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Possible Starting Lineups

New Zealand possible starting eleven

Darren Bazeley is likely to stick with a 4-2-3-1 that has earned New Zealand a perfect record in 2025. At the back, the seasoned trio of Cacace, Boxall and Reid keeps things steady, flanked by Payne. Central midfield pivots on Bell’s passing range and Garbett’s energy, with Lewis adding guile. Up front, Marko Stamenic and Singh will support Chris Wood—a must-watch for his aerial prowess and ability to hold play up. Formation remains direct and compact, with set pieces as their big threat.

Ukraine possible starting eleven

Sergiy Rebrov, in true Ukrainian fashion, will keep faith in his creative engine room and wide threat, lining up in a 4-2-3-1. Trubin between the sticks lends composure, while Zinchenko and Matvienko run out from the back. Stepanenko shields the defence as Shaparenko supplies craft. Importantly, Mudryk’s pace down the left, Tsyhankov’s trickery, and Dovbyk’s hold-up play up top will trouble any backline—watch out for slick interplay and a higher defensive line.

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My take on the Match

All things considered, while New Zealand are brimming with confidence and defensive solidity, Ukraine’s quality should see them edge it—though not without a serious scare! My main pick: Ukraine to win, but both teams to score, with goals coming late as legs tire and spaces open. One cannot write off New Zealand’s spirit; expect a resilient, combative showing, yet Ukraine’s front four may prove decisive in the final third. Tip for the day: a lively 2-1 or 3-1 in favour of Ukraine, but not before a real contest has played out. Keep your eyes on Chris Wood and Mykhailo Mudryk for possible game-changing moments!

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