Macara vs Mushuc Runa Prediction: July 15, 2026 Liga Pro Apertura

Macara host Mushuc Runa at Estadio Bellavista in a Liga Pro Apertura clash with genuine table implications. Macara sit 6th on 26 points, while Mushuc Runa occupy 13th with 21, so the home side carry an extra edge beyond just form. One detail worth flagging: the last four head-to-head meetings produced just one clean sheet between both teams combined, meaning goals have rarely been hard to come by in this fixture. Macara midfielder Matías Miranda has been sharp recently, scoring in the last five-match window, while Mushuc Runa forward Alex Ibarra leads the visitors in shot volume with eight attempts across the last two games and will test Macara’s defensive shape.

Hot stat: Mushuc Runa registered 30 total shots across their last five matches, compared to Macara’s 19, suggesting the visitors generate more offensive volume despite their lower league position.

Macara vs Mushuc Runa Prediction

Macara have won both of their matches in the last 30 days and carry a three-game winning run into this fixture. Their defensive record has tightened recently, with back-to-back clean sheets against Tecnico Universitario (2-0) and LDU Quito (1-0). Coaching under Guillermo Sanguinetti, they are compact in a 4-2-3-1 and difficult to break down at Estadio Bellavista. Mushuc Runa, under Paúl Vélez, just took down Universidad Católica 3-2 but conceded four goals to Independiente del Valle the match before. That inconsistency at the back makes backing Macara at home a reasonable call.

Macara commit an average of 21 fouls across their last five matches and earned just one yellow card, pointing to a disciplined defensive unit that disrupts without overstepping. Mushuc Runa average 20 fouls with two yellow cards, showing a slightly more aggressive approach. Macara’s pass accuracy across five matches sits at 494 completed passes, while Mushuc Runa move the ball more freely with 561. That passing edge for the visitors could create pockets of space, but Macara’s 22 interceptions versus Mushuc Runa’s 14 show the home side win the ball back far more consistently in the middle third.

• Match winner: Macara – Home form, defensive solidity, and a higher interception rate make them the pick at Estadio Bellavista.
• Both Teams to Score: Yes – Three of the last four H2H meetings saw both teams score, and Mushuc Runa’s attacking output is too high to shut out entirely.
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 – The H2H history and both teams’ recent scoring activity support a match with at least three goals.

Team Analysis

Macara have built real momentum heading into this fixture. Their last five competitive results show three wins, one draw, and one loss, with the most recent match a commanding 2-0 home victory over Tecnico Universitario. Before that, they edged LDU Quito 1-0, which was a significant scalp given LDU sit fourth in the table. The 0-0 draw with América de Cali in an earlier friendly-type fixture did not disrupt their rhythm. Across the five-match sample, they kept the ball moving through José Cazares in midfield, who racked up 64 passes and four interceptions, and relied on Denilson Bolaños at left back to contribute an assist and 57 passes. Macara’s overall year record of 12 wins from 29 matches (41% win rate) is modest on paper, but their last-30-days form of two wins from two at a 100% rate tells a more relevant story going into this home game.

Mushuc Runa arrive in mixed form. Their last five results contain two wins, one draw, and two losses. The most recent match, a 3-2 win over Universidad Católica, showed their offensive capability, with Nicolás Dávila contributing a goal and assist, and Ronie Carrillo also finding the net. Cristopher Angulo chipped in with a goal from defence. The match before that, however, was a 4-1 thrashing at the hands of Independiente del Valle, exposing their defensive fragility against top opposition. Goalkeeper Rodrigo Formento made nine saves across two games, which underlines how often Mushuc Runa are put under pressure. Their year win rate of 26% from 19 matches, combined with a goal difference of -4, reflects a team that can score but concedes at a concerning rate on the road.

🚨 Check out our dedicated Macara vs Mushuc Runa stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Macara the Favourite

• Moneyline Macara 2.00 | Mushuc Runa 3.55
• Draw 3.30
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The bookmakers’ average of 47% for a Macara win aligns with the market lines hovering around 2.00. That is fair value given their home record and recent form. Mushuc Runa at 3.55 reflects their inconsistency and inferior league position. The draw at 3.30 is the least attractive option given both teams’ tendency to produce decisive results in this fixture, with only one draw from the last four H2H meetings.

Possible Starting Lineups

Macara Possible Starting Eleven

Macara are expected to line up in their preferred 4-2-3-1 under Sanguinetti. Rodrigo Rodríguez starts in goal after appearing in both recent matches. The defensive block of Bolaños, Medranda, Jimenez, and Espinoza provides the base. Cazares is the engine in central midfield, covering ground and winning the ball back, while Miranda is the player to watch in the number eight role after scoring recently. His ability to arrive late into the box from midfield gives Macara an unpredictable attacking dimension.

Mushuc Runa Possible Starting Eleven

Mushuc Runa should deploy their 4-1-4-1 shape, though recent data suggests a more attacking three-forward structure in practice. Formento is the undisputed starter in goal and will be busy. Quiñones at centre back has three fouls across two games, showing physicality. Dávila is the key creative player, combining a goal and an assist recently with 66 passes and three shots. Ibarra leads the line with the highest shot count in the squad (eight across two games) and will be Macara’s primary defensive concern.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Macara are the pick to win this match. Their home advantage at Estadio Bellavista, back-to-back clean sheets, and a 100% win rate in the last 30 days all point in the same direction. Mushuc Runa’s attacking output is genuine, with 30 shots across five matches and multiple scorers in recent games, so a clean sheet for Macara is less likely than a narrow win. We predict a 2-1 Macara victory, with both teams scoring and the home side’s defensive organization proving just enough to hold off a Mushuc Runa attack that has shown it can create but also gives up goals at the other end. The Macara win and BTTS Yes combination offers the best value in this fixture.

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