Llaneros vs Deportivo Pasto Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Primera A 2026 Apertura Match - 11.02.2026

As the Primera A 2026 Apertura unfolds, the Estadio Manuel Calle Lombana in Villavicencio will host one of its pivotal clashes—Llaneros versus Deportivo Pasto—on February 11, 2026, with kickoff set for 01:20 CEST. Both clubs approach this fixture with high stakes, with Llaneros eager to solidify their stable start and Deportivo Pasto aiming to prove that their elevated form is no mere coincidence. This encounter is not merely a tussle for three points, but an early litmus test of tactical resilience and ambitions in Colombian top-flight football.

For Llaneros, all eyes turn to versatile forward Carlos Cortés, whose creative movement and recent scoring form (2 goals in his last 5 matches) have proven vital. On Deportivo Pasto’s side, the in-form Andrey Estupiñán stands as the most dynamic threat, having found the net four times in the same stretch. These two, paired with the strategic brains on the touchline—José Luis García and Jonathan Risueño—promise to inject quality, energy, and unpredictability into the night.

While recent results show both teams capable of solidity, one “hot stat” leaps out: Deportivo Pasto have amassed 18 yellow cards over their last five matches, underlining an aggressive, high-risk approach that could influence match momentum and discipline.

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Llaneros vs Deportivo Pasto predictions

Me best bet: Llaneros Draw No Bet (DNB). This selection leverages Llaneros’ home consistency—they have not lost at Estadio Manuel Calle Lombana in the Apertura—and Deportivo Pasto’s tendency towards high card accumulation, which could leave them numerically disadvantaged at crucial phases. With Llaneros’ defensive steel (3 goals conceded in 5) and a pragmatic tactical set-up, the hosts appear equipped to at least avoid defeat, if not clinch all three points.

In terms of style, Llaneros have preferred a possession-oriented approach, reflected by their 77.8% pass accuracy over the last five matches. However, their attack can lack penetration at times, with only 6 goals scored in this run. Disciplinary records show a relatively restrained team (11 yellow cards), in stark contrast to Pasto’s 18 bookings and more physical edge. Pasto’s recent form is predicated on pressing in midfield, rapid transitions, and an opportunistic attitude in second-phase play—though this aggression often results in high foul and card counts. Both teams have lined up in a 4-2-3-1, promising a tactical mirror-match with midfield congestion and an emphasis on wing play.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Llaneros vs Deportivo Pasto Most recent H2Hs

Looking back, Deportivo Pasto have had the edge in the recent H2H series, claiming two wins from the last three meetings, most notably a 3-0 victory in Copa Colombia group play. Nevertheless, Llaneros’ 2-1 victory in the most recent Primera A Clausura clash demonstrated that they can break Pasto’s pressing lines when their midfield clicks. The tactical battle has historically swung on small margins: set-pieces, moments of individual brilliance, and, crucially, discipline—Pasto’s physical style has often left them exposed to cards and suspensions.

🚨Read our full Llaneros vs Deportivo Pasto stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Deportivo Pasto have averaged an extraordinary 3.6 yellow cards per game over their last five fixtures.
• Llaneros are unbeaten at home through the current Apertura.
• Pasto’s Andrey Estupiñán is directly involved in 80% of their last five goals.
• Pasto have registered 60 fouls in their last five matches, among the highest in the league.
• Llaneros’ ball control: Over 77% pass accuracy, significantly above league average.

Llaneros vs Deportivo Pasto score prediction: 1-0

The data, form, and tactical match-ups point towards a narrow Llaneros victory, likely by a single-goal margin. Carlos Cortés’ off-the-ball runs could open space in Pasto’s high-pressing lines, while the Llaneros backline, marshaled by Francisco Meza and Jimmy Medranda, should contain Estupiñán’s threat with disciplined marking. Expect the match to hinge on set-pieces, with Llaneros punishing Pasto’s tendency to concede free kicks in dangerous areas.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Llaneros the favourite

The odds heavily favor Llaneros, reflecting both their superior home record and Deportivo Pasto’s disciplinary vulnerability. The under 2.5 goals line at 1.47 suggests a defensive, tightly contested affair—corroborating form trends and H2H results. Considering Pasto’s aggressive style and low conversion rate away from home, bookmakers indicate higher confidence in Llaneros to manage and dictate proceedings.

Llaneros vs Deportivo Pasto Over/Under Analysis

• Each of Llaneros’ last five matches finished with under 2.5 total goals.
• Deportivo Pasto have failed to score in two of their last three trips to Villavicencio.
• Only one of the last three H2Hs went over the 2.5 goal mark.
• Both teams have amounted fewer than 10 shots on target per match in their last three encounters.

Llaneros Preview

Llaneros come into this clash after an encouraging 1-0 home triumph over Deportes Tolima—a disciplined, collective performance where the midfield trio shielded the back four admirably and Carlos Cortés made the decisive impact. Their run of three consecutive draws prior signals a team perhaps lacking a clinical edge, but defensively they have proven stubborn. The steady hands of Miguel Ortega in goal and a reliable backline marshaled by Francisco Meza give the squad their foundation. With the home crowd behind them, Llaneros look poised to build on their unbeaten home start and edge further up the table.

Llaneros possible starting eleven

Deportivo Pasto Preview

Deportivo Pasto’s 0-0 draw against Bucaramanga was a showcase of defensive fortitude, with Fainer Torijano and Edwin Velasco particularly efficient in nullifying threats. Estupiñán’s forward play remains their primary weapon, but the midfield, led by Yeiler Goez and Johan Caicedo, have often been forced deeper to cover for overlapping fullbacks. Pasto’s rapid transitions and physical game can destabilize opponents, yet their discipline remains a double-edged sword; another week with high card accumulation could prove costly against a side as organized as Llaneros.

Deportivo Pasto possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

Main pick: Llaneros to win (AI prediction engine: 49% win probability).

Drawing from detailed performance analysis, Llaneros’ stability, home advantage, and Pasto’s potential disciplinary pitfalls point the scale in favor of the hosts. While both teams show quality in midfield, Llaneros’ measured buildup and composed defense appear better suited to grind out a low-scoring victory. Readers seeking value may consider the DNB and Under 2.5 markets for extra security.

How to watch Llaneros vs Deportivo Pasto

• When? 11 February 2026
• Kick-off time: 01:20 CEST
• Where? Estadio Manuel Calle Lombana, Villavicencio
• How to watch: Official Primera A broadcasters and streaming partners
• Favorite: Llaneros

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