Liam Duckstein
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Anfield hosts a genuinely tasty Round 4 tie as Liverpool welcome Chelsea under the lights on a Wednesday night in late October. Both clubs arrive with domestic weekend commitments on the horizon, so squad rotation feels inevitable, yet neither Andoni Iraola nor Xabi Alonso has shown much appetite for resting key men in cup football this season. The quirky detail here is that Chelsea, the away side, sit as outright favourites with most bookmakers despite Liverpool’s superior attacking output over the last five matches across all competitions.
Bradley Barcola has been Liverpool’s sharpest attacking weapon recently, with three goals and two assists in five appearances, and his pace against a Chelsea backline that has looked shaky in transition could be decisive. For Chelsea, Pedro Neto offers the biggest individual threat, having scored twice and created another in his last three outings, often drifting inside from the right to link with Cole Palmer.
Hot stat: Liverpool have fired off 95 total shots across their last five matches compared to Chelsea’s 35, almost triple the output, and that gulf in attacking volume says plenty about the gameplan Alonso’s side may need at Anfield.
| 🏆 Tournament: | EFL Cup 2026/27, Round 4 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Anfield, Liverpool |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 22:00 CEST |
Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction
We predict Liverpool to edge this one at home, somewhere around a 2-1 scoreline. Chelsea carry the bookmakers’ tag of favourite, but their last five fixtures show only 35 shots and 12 corners won, numbers that pale next to Liverpool’s attacking production at Anfield. Perhaps the smarter read is backing the hosts on home soil in a competition where Chelsea have shown defensive cracks against Brentford and Tottenham recently.
Style-wise, Liverpool complete passes at roughly 83 percent accuracy and have committed 61 fouls across their last five games, more than Chelsea’s 36, largely a byproduct of dominating possession and pressing higher up the pitch. Chelsea sit close behind on pass accuracy at around 82 percent but have picked up more yellow cards, six against Liverpool’s five, hinting at a side that fouls more cynically when stretched. Expect Liverpool’s volume of corners, 36 in five matches against Chelsea’s 12, to translate into set-piece pressure throughout the ninety minutes.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Liverpool -1 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Liverpool’s recent run reads four wins from five, with only Manchester City managing to stop them, a 0-3 defeat that stands out as the anomaly against an otherwise free-scoring stretch including a 6-3 win over LASK and a 4-3 thriller against Villarreal. Their last outing against Brighton produced a controlled 2-0 win, with Liverpool limiting their usually expansive approach and relying on defensive discipline to close the game out. In our preview of Liverpool vs Brighton we leaned toward a tight home win accompanied by goals at both ends, and the 2-0 result delivered the victory but not the BTTS angle we favoured, since Brighton were kept off the scoresheet entirely.
Chelsea’s form looks shakier on closer inspection. Their last match ended in a 0-2 loss to Tottenham, continuing a pattern of inconsistency that also saw a 0-3 defeat to Brentford earlier this month, sandwiched between a 5-1 demolition of Bournemouth and a 2-0 win over Everton. The Tottenham defeat is the more telling data point heading into Anfield, exposing a side that still leaks goals against sharper attacking units. In our preview of Chelsea vs Tottenham we called a Chelsea win by more than a single goal, and the 0-2 scoreline went firmly against that read.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Liverpool | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 5 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Liverpool vs Chelsea stats page for more info.
Chelsea. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Chelsea the favourite
- Moneyline Liverpool 2.70 | Chelsea 2.25
- Draw 3.75
Bookmakers lean toward Chelsea by a narrow margin, giving them roughly 40 percent implied probability against Liverpool’s 35 percent, with a draw priced around 25 percent. We think the market slightly undervalues Anfield’s influence here and Liverpool’s superior attacking numbers from the last five matches, which is why our own lean sits with the hosts despite the odds suggesting otherwise.
Possible Starting Lineups
Liverpool possible starting eleven
- GK: Alisson Becker
- DF: Jérémy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, Ronald Araujo, Milos Kerkez
- MF: Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch, Florian Wirtz, Treymaurice Nyoni
- FW: Bradley Barcola, Alexander Isak
Iraola looks set to stick with the 4-2-3-1 shape that has carried Liverpool through their recent run. Van Dijk and Araujo anchor the back line on minutes played, while Wirtz and Barcola carry most of the creative burden ahead of Isak, whose two goals in three games make him a real threat up top.
Chelsea possible starting eleven
- GK: Mike Penders
- DF: Levi Colwill, Josh Acheampong, Maxence Lacroix, Jorrel Hato
- MF: Moises Caicedo, Jordan Henderson, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers
- FW: Pedro Neto, João Pedro
Alonso also favours a 4-2-3-1 setup, with Caicedo screening a back four that has rotated heavily in recent weeks. Palmer and Neto give Chelsea their sharpest attacking outlets, and João Pedro’s finishing record, two goals in just two appearances, makes him a player worth watching off the shoulder of Liverpool’s defenders.
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Liverpool. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Liverpool to win this one, perhaps 2-1, leaning on their far superior shot and corner numbers from the last five matches against a Chelsea side that just lost 0-2 to Tottenham. To be honest, Chelsea’s away form this season gives us little reason to trust the bookmakers’ lean toward the visitors, and Anfield under the lights in a cup tie tends to favour the home crowd. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both feel like sound secondary bets, given Liverpool’s attacking volume and Chelsea’s habit of finding the net even in defeats.
Read also: Liverpool vs Chelsea Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 27 Oct 2026
Read also: Liverpool vs Chelsea Predicted Line-ups and Team News Ahead of 28 Oct 2026: Both Expected XIs
