100%Bonus
Bonus
100%
Freebet up to 50$
Sign Up & Activate Bonus
No, thanks

LCK Summer 2022 Week 7 Day 5: T1 vs. Gen.G prediction

24.07.2022, 17:17

Unsurprisingly, this matchup has become the main talking point of LCK 2022. As the long-standing Telecom Wars are gradually fading out, the clash of two highest-tier titans (T1 and GEN.G) is on track to become the most-watched matchup of all LCK.

Summer 2022South Korea, Seoul, LoL Park
$297,000Prize Pool
10Teams
PremierTier
Gen.G
Winner
T1
2nd Place
Liiv Sandbox
3rd Place

And for good reason, especially when it comes to the Summer 2022 Split: the two teams are neck and neck with the record of 11 Wins and 1 Loss. T1 no longer arrive to this match as Unkillable Demon Kings – and GEN.G smell the blood in the water and are ready to strike the reigning champs if they show even a momentary weakness.

T1: at the top, but at what cost?

T1South Korea
3421105
Tips
1Win streak
67%30 d. winrate
70%Winrate

On the surface, T1 remain as dominant as ever. As the team leads the LCK polls in a convincing manner, one would assume they’re still on top of their form. However, a closer inspection reveals a team on the crossroads of destiny.

The star team’s upset loss to Kwandong Freecs can be rationalized. A surprise pocket pick. An unorthodox strategy Gumayusi and Keria didn’t see coming. A stroke of genius from KDF’s Cain. All are valid excuses, but there’s no excuse for T1’s form in other games against relatively “lesser” teams – even if they did win them in the end, as paradoxically as it may sound.

Cain

Jang “Cain” Nu-ri is the Head Coach of Kwandong Freecs. Cain made himself a name with his performance back in NaJin Sword, and transitioned to coaching in 2014 Season.

T1’s inability to grab Game One even against teams of Fredit BRION’s caliber is alarming. The team seems to have gotten some sort of star fever, which makes them physically unable to respect their opponents – which (almost) costs them dearly every time.

Photo by: Inven.

The #1 team deciding a game via the Elder Drake flip against the #10 team sounds ridiculous – but it seems to be T1’s style at the moment. In fact, the team has lost more Elders than it secured: 3 lost, 2 grabbed over the course of the Summer Split. If this was a nameplates off moment, you wouldn’t recognize them as the current leaders of the pack.

To be fair, T1 has historically been the team to win with their wallets after dominating the lane phase. In Spring 2022, their stats were ridiculous: whopping +2505 Gold differential at 15 minutes on average, with nearly +300 Gold diff per minute. The team’s playstyle back then was simple: outlane everyone, secure Rift Herald, ram it down a turret (and secure the First Turret bonus gold in 85% of games), get fat stacks, right click the enemy.

Gold Differential@15 Gold Differential Per Minute Winrate When Ahead (Per Map)
+2505 +287 85.7%

Stats provided by gol.gg. Check this service out for detailed statistics about a professional regions, events, and teams.

Let’s be honest – even the best team in the world would forget what it means to actually try hard in teamfights in this scenario. Why practice teamfighting when you can simply outdamage your opponents with all the bonus gold you get? But take this bonus gold away and see this playstyle crumble under its own weight.

Faker vs Chovy. Worlds 2021

Ever since Faker dashed Chovy’s hopes at Worlds 2021, the famed “next Faker” plotted his revenge. Photo by: Riot Games.

T1’s stats in Summer 2022: +1054 Gold differential @15, +198 GPM advantage. The stats are still great, don’t get me wrong. But they’re not great enough – and the margin of error is much slimmer than before. As more teams adapted to T1’s toplane-heavy approach, the team can no longer secure Herald with impunity as they did before (75% Heralds secured in Spring > 52% Heralds secured in Summer).

Gold Differential@15 Gold Differential Per Minute Winrate When Ahead (Per Map)
+1054 +198 71%

Because of these factors, T1 went from “full-control” team to “hope this works.” For a team of this caliber, winning a series with a score of 2:1 feels more like a loss than a victory. The champion’s curse is real in this one.

GEN.G: the runner ups, or the leaders?

Update: With their decisive victory over DRX in 7th Week of LCK Summer 2022, GEN.G now secure the first place in Split Standings, overtaking T1 due to their map score differential.

Gen.GSouth Korea
275922
Tips
24Win streak
100%30 d. winrate
79%Winrate

On the other side of the ring, we see GEN.G – and this superteam looks more like T1 in Spring than T1 themselves. Just looking at the basics – the winrates – GEN.G are head and shoulders above T1, sporting nearly 90% winrate across all maps (compared to T1’s 77%). What this means is – the matches GEN.G win, they win in a clean and controlled manner.

While T1 drops map one left and right – against bottom of the barrel teams like KDF, HLE, and BRO – GEN.G’s only map losses are to T1 (2 maps) and DK (1 map lost, but GEN.G ultimately clinched the match). It’s clear that GEN.G respects their peers more; when it comes to LCK, respect is everything. And we can all see the results.

The power shift goes deeper than just winrates. If we take a look at GEN.G’s average gold numbers in Summer 2022, they look remarkably similar to T1’s performance back in Spring:

Gold Differential@15 Gold Differential Per Minute Winrate When Ahead (Per Map)
+3015 +364 (!) 91% (!!!)

These stats eclipse that of T1’s peak Spring form, and absolutely trumps over T1’s current Summer form – in fact, GEN.G have a double GPM diff than that of T1’s on average. These stats are incredible – and GEN.G’s ability to perform these feats on the highest LoL stage is absolutely insane.

Gen.G Spring LCK 2022.

Photo by: Inven.

Of course, we can’t just talk about GEN.G’s gold gains without mentioning the gold king himself – Chovy. The Korean star’s ability to seemingly summon minions to farm from thin air has become a huge meme in Twitch chat – and rightly so. If there’s an option to bet on a player being ahead in CS score at 15, you should always put this on Chovy. He’s, on average, nearly 20 minion kills ahead of his opponent @15.

When it comes to objective control, GEN.G are once again unparalleled. The team secures the first baron 85% of the time, the first Herald – and with it, the first turret – 80% of the time. The only time GEN.G’s games had an Elder Drake die, it went GEN.G’s way. That’s a testament to their efficiency.

Rematch with a vengeance

Some of you might say: “Hey, guys at TIPS.GG, aren’t you forgetting who’s the winner of the previous T1 vs GEN.G match?”. No, actually, we’re not. Since the writer here is a T1 fan, that sequence of events is not something I can easily forget.

08:02Finished08.07.2022
1Gen.GSouth Korea
2T1South Korea

Let’s be honest here: after losing Game One without any fighting chance, T1 hanged by a thread in Game Two after Faker straight up inted in enemy’s Red Side jungle. Imagine being one smite away from losing a series. Now imagine that smite belonging to your midlane Lissandra (who just respawned and had to TP back) thanks to Unsealed Spellbook.

Unsealed Spellbook

Unsealed Spellbook is a Keystone rune that allows its user to change Summoner Spells – provided they’re out of combat. The rune is heavily limited by its initial 5-minute cooldown, as well as the inability to swap Summoner Spells while channeling Teleport, and heavily limiting the amount of times you can use a certain swapped spell. All these factors combined make Faker’s steal even more miraculous.

That’s not even a coin flip. That’s more like throwing a d20 where numbers 1-19 are an instant loss. T1 got lucky once – but talent and hard work beat out luck in the long run.

T1’s latest series of matches are worrying. Faker making uncharacteristic mistakes, Gumayusi seemingly still suffering from emotional damage – that he has to mend by apparently spamming Draven nearly every game. On the other side, GEN.G seem cold, calculated, and ready to put an end to this rivalry once and for all. We at TIPS.GG cast our vote in favor of GEN.G.

We use cookie files to provide users personalized content, additional functions, and to perform the website traffic analysis. When using tips.gg, you agree with our cookie policy. Got It!