Liam Duckstein
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Italy welcome Turkey to the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara with a point to prove after a frustrating draw against France. Roberto Mancini’s men sit third in Group 1, still within touching distance of the top, while Vincenzo Montella’s side arrive bottom of the table without a single point to show from three matches.
The interesting wrinkle here is that these two sides met barely two weeks ago, with Italy winning 4-1 away from home. Turkey will want revenge, but their recent form suggests this rematch could be even tougher on home soil for Montella’s men.
Alessandro Bastoni has been a surprise attacking weapon for Italy from the back, scoring three goals across his last three appearances, and his runs into the box could cause Turkey problems again. On the other side, Arda Güler remains Turkey’s main creative outlet, having fired 19 shots in his last four matches, though his end product has not matched his volume of attempts lately.
Hot stat: Italy have scored nine goals in their last five matches compared to just two for Turkey, who have also shipped eight goals across their opening three Nations League games this campaign. That gap in attacking output tells its own story heading into Bologna.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Italy vs Turkey prediction
We predict Italy to win this one comfortably, and the manner of the previous meeting backs that up. A 4-1 scoreline two weeks ago was not a fluke, it reflected a genuine gulf in quality between these squads right now. Turkey have lost three straight matches without scoring a single goal in any of them, which is about as worrying a trend as a team can carry into a hostile away fixture.
Italy’s ball retention numbers back the case too. Their squad has racked up a pass accuracy figure well clear of Turkey’s across the last five games, and they commit fewer fouls while picking up fewer cards, a sign of a side controlling matches rather than chasing the ball. Turkey, by contrast, have picked up 11 yellow cards and a red card in the same stretch, a pattern of ill-discipline that tends to surface when a team is under pressure and second best for long spells. Expect Italy to dominate territory and force set-piece opportunities, with Turkey’s high foul count likely to hand them a steady stream of free kicks in dangerous areas.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Italy to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Italy’s last outing ended 1-1 against France, a result that halted a run of strong form but was hardly a disaster given the opponent’s quality. Before that draw, Mancini’s side thrashed this very Turkey team 4-1, beat Greece and Luxembourg by a goal apiece, and only lost narrowly to Belgium. The France stalemate looks more like a blip against a top-tier side than a sign of decline. In our preview of France vs Italy we backed France for a narrow win with Italy still finding the net, and the 1-1 result went against our scoreline call even though Italy did avoid defeat as expected from their attacking trend.
Turkey’s recent run reads far worse. They fell 0-3 to Belgium in their most recent fixture, having already lost 1-4 to Italy and 0-1 to France in the same international window. Three Nations League games, three defeats, and not a single goal scored against group opponents. Their last goal of any kind came away to the USA back in September, a 3-2 defeat that still showed some attacking spark that has since disappeared. In our preview of Belgium vs Turkey we called Belgium to win, and the 3-0 result delivered that primary call even though the BTTS angle we floated alongside it did not come through.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Italy | Turkey |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Italy vs Turkey stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Italy the favourite
- Moneyline Italy 1.45 | Turkey 6.15
- Draw 4.98
Bookmakers have Italy as heavy favourites here, and the 65% implied probability feels justified given how one-sided the head-to-head meeting went and how Turkey’s form has fallen off a cliff since. The draw price above 4.90 looks fair value given Italy’s recent habit of dropping points against stronger sides, though against a struggling Turkey outfit we lean toward a home win being the correct call over a stalemate.
Possible Starting Lineups
Italy possible starting eleven
- GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- DF: Michael Kayode, Alessandro Bastoni, Giorgio Scalvini, Riccardo Calafiori
- MF: Sandro Tonali, Nicolo Fagioli, Davide Frattesi
- FW: Nicolo Cambiaghi, Moise Kean, Pio Esposito
Mancini looks set to stick with the 4-3-3 that has worked across his last five matches. Donnarumma keeps his place in goal after racking up 17 saves over four appearances, while Bastoni’s attacking output from central defense gives this back line a rare extra goal threat. Up front, Pio Esposito has been directly involved in four goals across his last four games and should lead the line alongside Kean and Cambiaghi.
Turkey possible starting eleven
- GK: Altay Bayındır
- DF: Zeki Çelik, Merih Demiral, Ozan Kabak, Ferdi Kadıoğlu
- MF: Ismail Yüksek, Salih Özcan, Arda Güler
- FW: Oğuz Aydın, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Montella also favours a 4-3-3, and Bayındır’s higher minutes total over the last five matches make him the likely starter over Çakır. Güler remains the creative hub despite his lack of recent goals, firing more shots than anyone else in the squad, while Baris Alper Yilmaz carries the main goal threat up top having scored twice in his last four appearances.
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Turkey. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team sees little reason to deviate from the recent script between these two sides. Italy have scored nine goals in five matches, Turkey have conceded eight in three Nations League games this campaign alone, and the home crowd in Bologna will only add to the pressure on a visiting side that has forgotten how to find the net. We predict Italy to win by at least two goals, with the hosts’ set-piece threat and superior passing numbers doing the damage. Turkey’s indiscipline, shown through their heavy card count, could also invite more corners and free kicks for Italy to exploit. To be hones, a repeat of the 4-1 scoreline from their last meeting would not shock anyone following this group.
Read Also: Predicted Lineups: Italy vs Turkiye – Expected XIs and Team News
