Liam Duckstein
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Belgium welcome Turkey to Liege with a Group 1 table that already looks lopsided. France sit on top with six points, Belgium and Italy share second on three apiece, and Turkey prop up the group with none at all after two rounds. Mark van Bommel’s side stumbled against France last time out, yet the underlying numbers still favor the hosts here against a Turkish side that has looked short on confidence and goals.
The interesting wrinkle sits in Turkey’s defensive record over the last month. Vincenzo Montella’s team has shipped five goals across its two September fixtures while scoring just once, a alarming drop-off for a squad that carries real individual quality in midfield.
Kevin De Bruyne remains Belgium’s chief creator, still finding time and space to pick out runners even with reduced minutes this camp. On the other side, Arda Güler has been Turkey’s one bright spark, leading his side in shots and passes attempted, though his teammates rarely convert his service into anything meaningful.
Hot stat: Turkey have conceded five goals in their last two Nations League matches while managing only one goal themselves, the leakiest defensive return of any side in Group 1 this campaign.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 1 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Liege |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Belgium vs Turkey prediction
We predict a home win for Belgium, and the value sits with backing them to win comfortably rather than sweat through a nervy scoreline. Turkey have lost four of their last five matches and arrive having been picked apart by Italy just days ago. Belgium, even after the France defeat, scored freely against Italy, Spain, USA and Senegal earlier this year, and that attacking pedigree should tell against a Turkish backline missing rhythm.
Style-wise, this should be a fairly open contest. Belgium have committed 23 fouls and picked up 7 yellow cards across their last five matches, while Turkey have been noticeably more combative with 26 fouls, 34 free kicks conceded and a red card in that same span. Turkey actually hold a slight edge in raw pass accuracy, near 76%, against Belgium’s 71%, but that possession comfort has not translated into a shot volume advantage. Belgium have generated 31 shots to Turkey’s 27 over the same five games, and with Turkey’s discipline problems likely to hand Belgium set-piece chances near the box, we lean toward a physical evening that still ends with the hosts finding the net more than once.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Belgium -1 (Asian Handicap) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Belgium’s form has been inconsistent but productive going forward. Their last five results read a 0-1 loss to France, a 2-0 win over Italy, a 1-2 defeat to Spain, a 4-1 rout of USA and a 3-2 win against Senegal. The France loss stung mostly because Belgium failed to register a single goal, a rare blank for a side averaging well over two goals per match this year. In our preview of Belgium vs France we called a tight France win with goals shared at both ends, and the 0-1 result confirmed the France victory even though Belgium’s attack never got going that night.
Turkey’s recent run has been rough by any measure. Their last five outings show a 1-4 collapse against Italy, a 0-1 loss to France, a 3-2 win over USA, a 0-1 defeat to Paraguay and a 0-2 loss to Australia, just one win in five. The Italy match exposed a defense that could not track runners or close down shooting lanes, conceding four times despite decent possession numbers. In our preview of Turkey vs Italy we called an Italy win, and while we expected a tighter single-goal margin, the 1-4 scoreline still confirmed Italy as winners, just by a wider gap than we anticipated.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Belgium and Turkey have no recent competitive meetings on record between these two squads, so no head-to-head table can be built from current data.
🚨Check out our dedicated Belgium vs Turkey stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Belgium the favourite
- Moneyline Belgium 1.48 | Turkey 5.85
- Draw 4.84
The market leaves little doubt here. Belgium’s odds sit deep into favourite territory, reflecting both home advantage and Turkey’s shaky away form. Bookmakers put Belgium’s win probability near 63%, and given Turkey’s defensive numbers over the last month, that price looks fair rather than generous. We see little reason to fight the market on the outright result, though the goal markets around it offer better returns for punters willing to look past the obvious pick.
Turkey. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Belgium possible starting eleven
- GK: Senne Lammens
- DF: Timothy Castagne, Brandon Mechele, Nathan Ngoy, Maxim De Cuyper
- MF: Youri Tielemans, Nicolas Raskin, Kevin De Bruyne, Charles De Ketelaere, Dodi Lukebakio
- FW: Romelu Lukaku
Van Bommel should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in Belgium’s last five matches. Tielemans and Raskin screen the back four, freeing De Bruyne to drift and dictate tempo behind Lukaku. Lukebakio’s directness on the left offers an outlet against a Turkish defense prone to conceding fouls under pressure.
Turkey possible starting eleven
- GK: Altay Bayındır
- DF: Zeki Çelik, Merih Demiral, Abdulkerim Bardakçı, Ferdi Kadıoğlu
- MF: Arda Güler, Salih Özcan, Ismail Yüksek
- FW: Baris Alper Yilmaz, Oğuz Aydın, Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Montella has leaned on a 4-3-3 shape in recent camps, with Güler given license to roam between the lines. Özcan and Yüksek provide cover in front of a back four that has struggled for organization lately, and much rests on whether Baris Alper Yilmaz can convert the half-chances Güler tends to create.
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Belgium. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Belgium should get back to winning ways here, and perhaps by a comfortable margin. Turkey’s defensive numbers over the last two matches, five conceded against just one scored, point to a side low on confidence at the back. Belgium’s attack, even after the flat France showing, has enough firepower in Lukaku, De Bruyne and Lukebakio to break down a Turkish rearguard that has been undisciplined and error-prone lately. Our punters team backs Belgium to win, with goals at both ends given Turkey’s habit of finding the net against otherwise stronger opposition, and corners flowing given both sides’ willingness to attack the byline.
Read also: Predicted Lineups: Belgium vs Turkiye – Expected XIs and Team News
Read also: Belgium vs Turkiye Head-to-Head: Record, Stats and Form as of 30 Sep 2026
