Liam Duckstein
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Italy host Turkiye in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 5 October 2026, and the predicted lineups below are built from how settled both squads have looked across their last three outings. Roberto Mancini’s side and Vincenzo Montella’s group have each been picking from a similar pool of starters recently, which makes this one of the more stable team-news pictures on the slate. Below you’ll find the expected XI for each side, the players on the sidelines, and the bench options who could yet force their way in.
Italy Predicted Lineup
Italy are projected in a 4-2-3-1, the shape Roberto Mancini prefers when selecting his strongest available group. The side is largely settled, with 9 of the projected XI starting their last match, suggesting Mancini has a clear first-choice spine right now. Gianluigi Donnarumma has started all three matches used for this projection, while Sandro Tonali has done the same in midfield, making both near-automatic picks on current form. Elsewhere there is more rotation, with several defenders and midfielders starting only twice in the sample.
Italy predicted XI: Gianluigi Donnarumma; Michael Kayode, Giorgio Scalvini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori; Sandro Tonali, Davide Frattesi, Nicolo Fagioli, Alessandro Romano, Nicolò Barella; Pio Esposito
| Line | # | Player | Starts in last 3 | Last 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 1 | Gianluigi Donnarumma | 3/3 | 3/3 |
| D | 2 | Michael Kayode | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| D | 19 | Giorgio Scalvini | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| D | 21 | Alessandro Bastoni | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| D | 5 | Riccardo Calafiori | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| M | 8 | Sandro Tonali | 3/3 | 3/3 |
| M | 16 | Davide Frattesi | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| M | 6 | Nicolo Fagioli | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| M | 4 | Alessandro Romano | 1/3 | 1/3 |
| M | 18 | Nicolò Barella | 1/3 | 1/3 |
| F | 7 | Pio Esposito | 3/3 | 3/3 |
Predicted Turkiye Line-up
Turkiye also line up in a 4-2-3-1 under Vincenzo Montella, mirroring the shape their own coach tends to favour. This is a settled side – 10 of the projected XI started their last match – which points to a well-established group of starters heading into the game. Zeki Çelik has started all three matches in the sample at right-back, and Merih Demiral has done likewise alongside him in central defence, making the back line the most reliable part of this projection. Further forward there is some fluctuation, with a couple of midfield slots based on only a single recent start.
Turkiye predicted XI: Uğurcan Çakır; Zeki Çelik, Merih Demiral, Abdulkerim Bardakçı, Ferdi Kadıoğlu; Oğuz Aydın, Ismail Yüksek, Salih Özcan, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Bartuğ Elmaz; Arda Güler
| Line | # | Player | Starts in last 3 | Last 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 1 | Uğurcan Çakır | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| D | 2 | Zeki Çelik | 3/3 | 3/3 |
| D | 3 | Merih Demiral | 3/3 | 3/3 |
| D | 14 | Abdulkerim Bardakçı | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| D | 20 | Ferdi Kadıoğlu | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| M | 18 | Oğuz Aydın | 3/3 | 3/3 |
| M | 16 | Ismail Yüksek | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| M | 5 | Salih Özcan | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| M | 7 | Kerem Aktürkoğlu | 1/3 | 1/3 |
| M | 6 | Bartuğ Elmaz | 1/3 | 1/3 |
| F | 10 | Arda Güler | 3/3 | 3/3 |
Team News: Who Is Out
Giacomo Raspadori is out injured, which thins Italy’s forward options for this selection. Among the alternatives, Sebastiano Esposito has started twice across the matches used here, which puts him in the best position to provide cover if Mancini needs a change up front.
| Player | Pos | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giacomo Raspadori | F | injured | Hamstring Injury |
Can Yilmaz Uzun is out injured, leaving a gap in Turkiye’s midfield options for this fixture. Baris Alper Yilmaz has the most appearances of anyone on the bench in this sample, with three starts, making him the player best placed to come into contention if Montella alters his XI.
| Player | Pos | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Can Yilmaz Uzun | M | injured | Unknown Injury |
How We Predict These XIs
Each expected XI here is built from the last three line-ups fielded by that side, with more recent matches weighted more heavily than older ones so current form shapes the projection rather than outdated selections. Any player confirmed injured or suspended has been removed from contention entirely. This remains a projection, not an announced team sheet, and it can and will change once the official line-ups are confirmed closer to kick-off.
Read Also: Italy vs Turkey Prediction: 05.10.2026 UEFA Nations League
FAQ
What formation are Italy and Turkiye expected to play?
Both sides are projected in a 4-2-3-1, reflecting the shape each coach has preferred across the matches used for this analysis.
Who is predicted to start in goal for Italy vs Turkiye?
Gianluigi Donnarumma is projected to start in goal for Italy, while Uğurcan Çakır is the expected choice for Turkiye based on recent selections.
Who is unavailable for Italy vs Turkiye?
Giacomo Raspadori is out injured for Italy, and Can Yilmaz Uzun is unavailable through injury for Turkiye.
When do Italy and Turkiye kick off?
The UEFA Nations League match between Italy and Turkiye kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026.