Liam Duckstein
The EFL Championship Final arrives with a classic English football showdown: Hull City face Middlesbrough at Wembley Stadium on May 23, 2026. A place in the Premier League is at stake, adding high pressure and high stakes for both sides. Bookmakers favor Middlesbrough, but Hull’s recent form and defensive improvements provide a genuine counterpoint to the odds. The midfield battle will shape the match, with Hull’s Matt Crooks and Middlesbrough’s Tommy Conway as pivotal figures for their teams. Crooks’ creativity has driven Hull’s attack while Conway’s finishing has seen him net three goals in his last four appearances.
Hot stat: Middlesbrough have fired an impressive 71 total shots over their last five matches, highlighting their aggressive attacking approach and ability to keep opposition goalkeepers busy.
| 🏆 Tournament: | EFL Championship Final 2025/26 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Wembley Stadium, London |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:30 CEST |
Hull vs Middlesbrough prediction
We predict Middlesbrough will take the win in regular time. The combination of a stronger attack (8 goals and 71 shots in their last five games) and a more stable recent defensive record makes them the clear favorite. Hull’s defense has looked shaky, conceding goals in four of their last five matches. The bookmaker’s odds reflect Middlesbrough’s edge, and our analysis supports this conclusion.
Both sides play a physical brand of football, evident in the high foul counts (Hull: 35, Middlesbrough: 39 in last five). Yet, Middlesbrough’s players have shown greater discipline with only 5 yellow cards compared to Hull’s 7. Ball progression and retention favor Middlesbrough, who have completed 1686 passes with 84% accuracy, compared to Hull’s 754 passes at 66%. This control in possession should restrict Hull’s attacking opportunities and limit their threat on the break.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Middlesbrough to win & Over 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Hull’s latest run has been mixed. They beat Millwall 2-0 in their last outing, finally keeping a clean sheet after several leaky displays. Prior to that, they drew 0-0 with the same opponent and secured a narrow 2-1 win over Norwich. The loss to Charlton (1-2) exposed defensive lapses, and their draw against Leicester (2-2) showed both resilience and vulnerability. Hull’s midfield has lacked consistency, relying heavily on Crooks and McBurnie for breakthroughs.
Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last five, showcasing improved resilience. They drew twice with Southampton (1-1, 0-0), then put five past Watford in a statement performance. The 2-2 draw with Wrexham and a narrow 1-0 victory over Sheffield Wednesday display a team that can grind out results and capitalize on attacking momentum. Middlesbrough’s forwards, especially Conway and Whittaker, have been clinical and opportunistic.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Hull | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 5 | 8 |
| Total shots | 42 | 71 |
| Free kicks | 1 | 1 |
| Corner kicks | 20 | 25 |
| Total fouls | 35 | 39 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 66 | 84 |
| Interceptions | 31 | 29 |
| Offsides | 5 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Hull vs Middlesbrough stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Middlesbrough the favourite
- Moneyline Hull 4.18 | Middlesbrough 1.90
- Draw 3.48
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.70
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.73 | No 2.05
The market sees Middlesbrough as the clear favorite, and we see no reason to disagree. Their attack has outgunned Hull in recent weeks and their defense has stood firmer under pressure. The pricing on a Hull win reflects their underdog status, while the tight odds on both teams to score highlight the potential for attacking moments at both ends. Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 is a fair reflection of the match’s expected tempo and attacking intent.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hull possible starting eleven
- GK: Ivor Pandur
- DF: Lewie Coyle, Ryan Giles, John Egan, Charlie Hughes
- MF: Regan Slater, Matt Crooks, John Lundstram
- FW: Liam Millar, Mohamed Belloumi, Oliver McBurnie
Pandur is nailed on in goal, with Coyle and Giles providing width from the back. Egan’s aerial presence is vital against Middlesbrough’s set-piece threat. Crooks brings a creative spark in midfield and McBurnie’s recent scoring run makes him the most dangerous forward. Belloumi’s movement can disrupt defenders, and Slater’s energy will be key in transitions. Hull should continue with the 4-2-3-1 formation that brought them success in recent games.
Middlesbrough possible starting eleven
- GK: Solomon Brynn
- DF: Luke Ayling, Dael Fry, A. Malanda, Matt Targett
- MF: Aidan Morris, Callum Brittain, Riley McGree
- FW: Tommy Conway, Morgan Whittaker, David Strelec
Brynn’s shot-stopping will be tested by Hull’s forwards. Ayling and Targett provide experience on the flanks, while Fry and Malanda form a disciplined central pairing. Morris and Brittain offer control and box-to-box running in midfield. McGree’s recent goal shows his value in advanced areas. Conway’s finishing and Whittaker’s creative spark, alongside Strelec’s movement, give Middlesbrough a well-balanced and mobile front line. The team’s recent preference for 4-2-3-1 should persist, maximizing midfield control and attacking options.
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Middlesbrough. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Middlesbrough will win this final, based on their offensive strength and greater consistency in the last month. Their ability to create chances and manage game tempo sets them apart. Hull’s best hope lies in quick transitions, but their defensive vulnerabilities make a clean sheet unlikely. Expect a fast start, both teams on the scoresheet, and Middlesbrough’s quality to decide the contest.
