Groningen vs Ajax Prediction: 18 October 2026 Eredivisie

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Groningen welcome Ajax to the Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion on Sunday evening with just one point separating the two sides in the Eredivisie table. That gap feels bigger than it looks on paper though, since Ajax arrive having gone three matches without a win while the home side have lost just twice all season at this stage. The intriguing bit is that Dick Lukkien’s men have scored more goals from fewer shots than almost anyone in the division recently, a trend that could matter a great deal against an Ajax backline still finding its rhythm under Míchel Sánchez.

Tolu Arokodare has been Ajax’s spark in attack, netting twice in his last three outings and leading the squad in shot volume, while Julian Brandt continues to dictate tempo from midfield with the highest passing output on the team. For Groningen, Thom van Bergen deserves attention too. He has scored twice in his last two appearances and looks sharp enough to trouble a visiting defense that has conceded in each of its last four games.

Hot stat: Groningen have scored 8 goals from just 31 shots in their last five matches (a 25.8% conversion rate), while Ajax needed 63 shots to find the net only 4 times (6.3%) over the same stretch. Shot volume clearly favors Ajax, but finishing sharpness belongs to the hosts right now.

Groningen vs Ajax prediction

We lean toward a cagey affair that still produces goals at both ends. Ajax hold the clear class edge on paper and the bookmakers rightly make them favourites, but their recent draws and a loss to Hajduk Split suggest a team short on confidence and sharpness in front of goal. Groningen, by contrast, have won their last two matches scoring eight goals combined and look dangerous on the counter. Our pick is Ajax to win but both teams to score, perhaps with a scoreline close to 2-1 or 2-2 rather than a comfortable away rout.

Groningen commit fewer fouls and pick up fewer cards than Ajax across their last five matches, a sign of a disciplined low-block setup that could frustrate Ajax’s build-up play. Ajax dominate possession and completed passes by a wide margin, but that control hasn’t translated into killer efficiency lately. Expect Ajax to control the ball for long stretches while Groningen sit deep and strike through transitions, a pattern that tends to produce fewer corners for the away side than their shot count would suggest.

Team Analysis

Groningen’s last outing was a 5-1 demolition of Excelsior, their biggest win of the campaign and a result that followed a comfortable 3-0 victory over PEC Zwolle. Before that stretch they had drawn with GA Eagles and Twente and lost to Fortuna Sittard, so the recent form curve is pointing sharply upward right into this fixture. In our preview of Excelsior vs Groningen we leaned toward a tight scoreline or narrow home win with goals at both ends, and the eventual 5-1 away win blew well past that margin, so the call went against us on the scoreline front even though the goals and BTTS elements held up fine.

Ajax head into this one off a 1-2 defeat to Hajduk Split, their first loss in a while and a result that followed back-to-back draws against Nijmegen and Excelsior. Before that run they put five past Willem II and five past Fortuna Sittard, so there is real quality in this squad, it just hasn’t shown up over the last month. In our preview of Hajduk Split vs Ajax we called for an Ajax win built on squad quality and passing control, and the 1-2 final score went against that call, with Hajduk’s physical edge proving decisive instead.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

Ajax have won three of the last four meetings between these two sides, often by a comfortable margin, which explains why they remain the bookmakers’ pick again this time around. Groningen’s only win in that stretch came by a 3-1 scoreline in the 2025/26 regular season.

🚨Check out our dedicated Groningen vs Ajax stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax the favourite

• Moneyline Groningen 3.44 | Ajax 1.88
• Draw 4.33

The market gives Ajax roughly a 53% implied chance of winning, which lines up with the bookmakers’ own 52% prediction for the away side. We think that price slightly undersells Groningen’s recent scoring form and a draw at odds above 4.00 looks like fair value if you want to hedge against an Ajax side that has struggled for results in October. To be honest, backing Ajax outright at under 1.90 feels thin given how porous their defense has looked lately.

Possible Starting Lineups

Groningen possible starting eleven

Lukkien tends to stick with his 4-3-3 shape and the same core group that has started most recent matches. Van Bergen is the player to watch up top given his two goals in his last two appearances, while Rente has chipped in defensively and offensively from the back line.

Ajax possible starting eleven

Míchel Sánchez also favours a 4-3-3, built around Amrabat screening the back four while Brandt and Klaassen push forward. Arokodare remains the focal point in attack and his movement against a deep Groningen block will likely decide how many chances Ajax actually create.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict Ajax to edge this one but not without drama. Groningen’s finishing form and home comfort should get them on the scoresheet, while Ajax’s squad depth and shot volume eventually tell in the final third. Our staking lean points to Ajax to win combined with both teams scoring, alongside over 2.5 total goals given how both defenses have leaked recently. A repeat of the lopsided scorelines from earlier head-to-head meetings looks unlikely given Groningen’s current scoring touch, so expect a scrappier, tighter contest than the odds suggest.

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