Liam Duckstein
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Excelsior welcome Groningen to Rotterdam with both sides sat level on 11 points, separated only by goal difference in the Eredivisie table. Neither club has strung together a long run of form lately, and the bookmakers clearly agree, pricing this one almost dead even between the three outcomes. What stands out is how differently these two teams get their points: Excelsior have leaned on a resilient defense and timely draws, while Groningen have swung between heavy wins and heavy losses, including a 5-1 beating at the hands of PSV just weeks ago.
Aymen Sliti has been Excelsior’s spark in midfield, scoring twice in the last five matches and driving most of their chances from deep. For Groningen, Thom Van Bergen leads the line with a goal and strong shot numbers, and he will be the one Excelsior’s back four have to manage all evening.
Hot stat: Groningen shipped five goals in a single match against PSV this season, their heaviest defeat in the last five games, a worrying sign against a side that still averages over two shots conceded per fixture recently.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Eredivisie 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:45 CEST |
Excelsior vs Groningen prediction
We predict goals at both ends here. Excelsior have drawn 2-2 twice in their last five outings and conceded in four of their five games, while Groningen have found the net in four of their last five too, despite the PSV mauling. The value, to be honest, sits with both teams scoring rather than picking a straight winner given how close the market prices this fixture.
Excelsior tend to play a patient build-up out of their 4-2-3-1, racking up decent pass accuracy at home but committing a fair number of fouls (21 in their last five matches) which keeps referees busy. Groningen, running a 4-3-3, have actually completed more passes and taken more shots on average over the same stretch, but their discipline has been shaky away from home with a tendency to concede late set-piece chances. Expect a scrappy midfield battle with cards shown on both sides and chances created from transitions rather than sustained pressure.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Correct score 2-2 |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Excelsior arrive off a 2-2 draw with Ajax, a result that shows character given the quality of the opponent, but it continues a pattern of dropping points from winning positions. Before that they lost 1-2 to Utrecht and drew 2-2 with Nijmegen, meaning three of their last four league games have ended level or in defeat despite a strong opening quarter of the season. The 3-0 win over Willem II remains their best performance of the run, but consistency has clearly slipped over the past month.
Groningen head into this one on the back of a confidence-boosting 3-0 win over bottom side PEC Zwolle, snapping a stretch of two draws and two losses. The 1-1 with GA Eagles and 2-2 with Twente showed they can match stronger sides, but the 2-3 loss to Fortuna Sittard and especially the 1-5 collapse against PSV exposed real gaps defensively when facing teams that press high. The win over PEC Zwolle will have lifted spirits, though it came against the league’s weakest attack, so it says little about how they cope with a more organized Excelsior side.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Excelsior | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last two meetings) | 3 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Excelsior vs Groningen stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Excelsior the favourite
- Moneyline Excelsior 2.50 | Groningen 2.50
- Draw 3.60
The market barely separates these two sides, and the numbers back that up. Excelsior get a slight nudge from home advantage and the bookmaker average putting them at 37% against Groningen’s identical 37%, with the draw trailing at 26%. Pinnacle’s sharper line actually offers slightly bigger odds on the home win at 2.60, which suggests a touch of value there for anyone leaning Excelsior, though our team still prefers the goals markets over picking a winner outright in a match this balanced.
Groningen. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Excelsior possible starting eleven
- GK: Stijn van Gassel
- DF: Casper Widell, Rick Meissen, Simon Janssen, Kasey Bos
- MF: Irakli Yegoian, Jan Plug, Lennard Hartjes, Aymen Sliti, Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
- FW: David Garden
Den Uil should stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has served Excelsior well this season. Sliti operates just behind Garden and carries most of the creative burden, while Van Gassel’s distribution from the back has been tidy all season. Watch how Yegoian and Plug shield the back four, since Groningen’s front three like to run in behind.
Groningen possible starting eleven
- GK: Etienne Vaessen
- DF: Thijmen Blokzijl, Mark Csinger, Marco Rente, Wouter Prins
- MF: Tika de Jonge, Pelle Clement, Tygo Land
- FW: Thom Van Bergen, Jorg Schreuders, Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
Lukkien’s 4-3-3 relies heavily on width from Schreuders and Willumsson either side of Van Bergen, with De Jonge and Clement dictating tempo through the middle. Blokzijl has been the most reliable passer in the back line, but the Fortuna and PSV results prove this defense can be stretched by quick combinations.
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Excelsior. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Perhaps the safest read on this fixture is that neither side can be trusted to keep a clean sheet right now. Excelsior have let in goals in four of five recent outings, and Groningen’s defense has been porous away from home against anything resembling a proper attack. We predict goals from both teams, a tight scoreline, and a result that could easily go either way or end level. Our lean is toward a draw or a narrow home win, with over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes forming the backbone of our staking plan for this round.
