Liam Duckstein
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Hajduk Split welcome Ajax to Poljud for a League Phase fixture that looks lopsided on paper but carries a bit more intrigue than the odds suggest. Hajduk arrive on the back of a gritty 2-1 win over Dinamo Zagreb, a result that gave their home support something to shout about after a shaky patch. Ajax, meanwhile, have been grinding out results without always convincing, drawing their last two league outings including a 1-1 stalemate with Nijmegen. The Dutch side’s shot volume has been enormous in recent weeks, yet the conversion rate hasn’t always matched it, and that gap is worth watching closely here.
Julian Brandt has quietly been Ajax’s most productive attacker in the last five matches with two goals and a string of created chances, and his movement between the lines could cause real problems for a Hajduk back line that has looked stretched at times. On the other side, Marko Livaja remains the player Hajduk fans watch closest. He’s only featured once in the sample provided, but his presence alone changes how defenders set up against the hosts, and a rested Livaja could be the difference in a game this tight on paper.
Hot stat: Ajax have racked up 84 total shots across their last five matches compared to just 23 for Hajduk Split, a near fourfold gap that says plenty about the contrast in attacking output heading into this one.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27, League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Poljud, Split |
| 🗓️ Date: | 15.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:45 CEST |
Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction
We predict Ajax to win this one, though not by the margin the bookmakers seem to expect. The away side sits well clear of Hajduk in overall club ranking and their squad depth shows in the stat sheet, 2066 passes completed against Hajduk’s 918 over the same five-match sample. That passing volume usually translates into control, and against a Croatian side missing some rotation at the back, Ajax should dictate large spells of this game.
Hajduk’s physical approach, built around 20 fouls across their last five fixtures and a willingness to break up play early, could frustrate Ajax’s build-up for periods, but it rarely stops a team completing over 1,800 passes at 89% accuracy from eventually finding gaps. Hajduk’s own pass accuracy sits closer to 80%, a gap that tends to widen as a match wears on and legs tire. Expect Ajax to score first and Hajduk to chase the game, which opens space for a second or third away goal late on.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Ajax to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Hajduk Split’s last outing produced a 2-1 win over Dinamo Zagreb, a result that snapped a short dip in form and gave Gonzalo García’s side some momentum heading into European action. Before that, their results had been patchy, a 0-3 defeat to Rijeka sandwiched between wins over lesser-ranked sides like Vardarac and Rudes. The pattern suggests Hajduk perform best against teams they can dominate physically, and Ajax simply doesn’t fit that profile. Their defending against higher-quality opposition has shown cracks, something that could be exploited repeatedly here.
Ajax head into this fixture off a 1-1 draw with Nijmegen, their second straight stalemate after also sharing the points with Excelsior. Before those draws, Míchel Sánchez’s side put together an emphatic run, including a 5-1 win over Willem II and a 5-1 beating of Fortuna Sittard. The draws aren’t alarming on their own, more a sign of a side cycling through squad depth during a congested calendar. A 1-3 loss to PSV a few weeks back is the one blemish worth noting, proof that Ajax can be got at when their press is bypassed quickly.
🚨Check out our dedicated Hajduk Split vs Ajax stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Ajax the favourite
- Moneyline Hajduk Split 5.20 | Ajax 1.52
- Draw 4.45
The odds line up almost perfectly with the ranking gap between the two clubs. Bookmakers give Ajax roughly a 62% implied chance of winning outright, and little in the underlying stats argues against that. Hajduk’s price above 5.00 reflects genuine respect for home advantage at Poljud, a ground that can be hostile, but not enough to flip our view. We’re backing the away win here, perhaps with a small side bet on Ajax covering a -1 handicap given their shot volume advantage.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hajduk Split possible starting eleven
- GK: Toni Silic
- DF: Ron Raqi, Dario Marešić, Simun Hrgovic, Mathieu Acapandie
- MF: Khalil Fayad, Alberto del Moral, Dalisson De Almeida Leite
- FW: Abdoulie Sanyang, Michele Šego, marin soticek
Gonzalo García tends to favor a 4-3-3 setup, and the players listed above have carried the heaviest minutes over the last five matches. Marko Livaja only shows up once in the sample but remains the biggest threat if he’s fit enough to start or even come off the bench. Khalil Fayad’s work rate in midfield, backed by Dalisson’s physicality, should be the platform that keeps Hajduk competitive for long stretches.
Ajax possible starting eleven
- GK: Marc-André ter Stegen
- DF: Thilo Kehrer, Youri Baas, Lucas Oliveira Rosa, Owen Wijndal
- MF: Julian Brandt, Oscar Gloukh, Sofyan Amrabat
- FW: Tolu Arokodare, Viktor Tsygankov, Oliver Valaker Edvardsen
Míchel Sánchez has stuck largely with a 4-3-3 shape across the last five games, and the names above reflect the most consistent starters in that run. Julian Brandt and Oscar Gloukh give Ajax real creativity between the lines, while Tolu Arokodare’s goal return makes him the focal point up top. Amrabat’s defensive screening in midfield should help manage Hajduk’s direct approach.
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Ajax. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our call leans firmly toward Ajax here, backed by the gap in squad quality and the passing numbers that suggest they’ll control possession for most of the ninety minutes. Hajduk’s home form and physical edge could keep this closer than the 1.52 moneyline price implies, especially in the opening half hour at a loud Poljud. We expect Ajax to break through in the second half and finish comfortable winners, with both teams likely to find the net given Hajduk’s record of scoring against stronger opposition in big European nights.
