Rafael Nogueira
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Gremio welcome Palmeiras to Arena do Gremio in a fixture that says a lot about where both clubs stand this season. Renato Gaúcho’s side sit 17th, just four points above the relegation zone, while Abel Ferreira’s Palmeiras sit second and remain in the title fight with Flamengo. The reverse fixture back in April went Palmeiras’ way 2-1, and this rematch on home turf in Porto Alegre gives Gremio a chance to salvage something meaningful from a season that has gone sideways for months.
Cristian Pavón carries most of Gremio’s creative burden, contributing a goal and an assist in four appearances, and his movement between the lines could give the home side its best route to goals. For Palmeiras, Vitor Roque has been sharp in front of goal with two strikes and thirteen shots across his last five outings, giving Abel Ferreira a reliable focal point up top.
Hot stat: Palmeiras were involved in a wild 6-6 draw against LDU Quito in their last continental outing, the kind of scoreline that shows their attack can misfire defensively just as easily as it can fire going forward.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:00 CEST |
Gremio vs Palmeiras prediction
We predict Palmeiras to win, and given the gap in league position, this reads as the most sensible outcome to back. Palmeiras arrive unbeaten in nine matches across the last month with five wins and four draws, while Gremio have lost four of their last seven and sit deep in the bottom half. Perhaps the home crowd gives Gremio a spark early, but Palmeiras’ squad depth and Abel Ferreira’s structure should tell over ninety minutes.
Gremio’s approach under Renato Gaúcho leans on physical duels, sixty fouls and sixteen yellow cards across the last five matches, with a pass accuracy sitting around 84%. Palmeiras control possession far more comfortably, seventy fouls suffered against them and thirty-three corners won in the same stretch, a sign that they push opponents deep and generate set-piece chances consistently. That corner count alone suggests Palmeiras will dominate territory here, and their higher shot volume, eighty-four attempts to Gremio’s fifty-nine, backs the case for a routine away performance.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Palmeiras -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Gremio’s recent run reads two wins, four losses and a draw across their last seven games, a 29% winrate that explains their position near the drop zone. Their most recent match against Botafogo ended in a narrow defeat, continuing a pattern of tight losses rather than heavy beatings. In our preview of Botafogo RJ vs Gremio we called a narrow home win for Botafogo with goals at both ends, and the 3-2 result delivered it, Gremio’s defense leaking again while still finding the net themselves.
Palmeiras, by contrast, have won five and drawn four of their last nine, going unbeaten across that entire stretch. Their last fixture, a 6-6 draw with LDU Quito, was more chaos than control, but it followed a run of low-scoring, tightly managed results against Sao Paulo, Botafogo and Santos. In our preview of LDU Quito vs Palmeiras we leaned toward an LDU win built on altitude and Palmeiras’ recent scoring struggles, and the eventual 6-6 shootout went against that specific call, though the goals-at-both-ends angle we flagged proved accurate.
🚨Check out our dedicated Gremio vs Palmeiras stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Palmeiras the favourite
- Moneyline Gremio 4.20 | Palmeiras 1.81
- Draw 3.60
Bookmakers give Palmeiras a 51% implied win chance against just 23% for Gremio, a gap that matches the twenty-eight point difference between the two clubs in the table. The tightest line among the bookmakers we track sits at 1.36 for a Palmeiras win, and even the most generous prices on Gremio stretch no higher than 4.20, leaving little value on backing the home side outright.
Possible Starting Lineups
Gremio possible starting eleven
- GK: Gabriel Grando
- DF: Walter Kannemann, João Pedro, Wagner Leonardo, Gustavo Martins
- MF: Mathias Villasanti, Filip Krovinović
- FW: Tetê, José Enamorado, Cristian Pavón, Carlos Vinícius
Renato Gaúcho keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 shape that has featured in every recent match. Carlos Vinícius leads the line on recent output, and Pavón’s involvement in both goals and assists makes him the player Gremio need to find in space behind him.
Palmeiras possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Miguel
- DF: Khellven Douglas Silva Oliveira, Gustavo Gómez, Murilo Cerqueira Paim, Agustin Giay
- MF: Lucas Evangelista, Andreas Pereira
- FW: Felipe Anderson, Jhon Arias, Maurício Magalhães Prado, Vitor Roque
Abel Ferreira sticks with the same 4-2-3-1 that has driven Palmeiras’ unbeaten run. Vitor Roque’s finishing form makes him the man to watch up top, while Jhon Arias’ work rate on the flank should stretch a Gremio back line already prone to conceding.
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Palmeiras. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Palmeiras to win at Arena do Gremio, backed by an unbeaten run stretching nine matches and a table position that separates these two clubs by nearly thirty points. Gremio’s tendency to concede in bunches, three goals allowed against Botafogo alone, gives Palmeiras’ attacking trio a real chance to find the net more than once. Both teams to score feels like the sharper add-on given Gremio’s own scoring output at home this season, and the corner count from Palmeiras’ recent matches supports a high-corner total too. To be honest, this looks like one of the more straightforward reads on the weekend card.
