Liam Duckstein
Greece and Italy meet in Bergen on June 7 in what looks like a low-stakes friendly on the surface, but carries some weight as a preparation fixture heading into the summer window. Italy arrive under Silvio Baldini off the back of a narrow 1-0 win over Luxembourg, while Ivan Jovanovic’s Greece drew 2-2 with Sweden in their most recent outing. That Sweden result is worth noting: Greece went toe-to-toe with a side ranked considerably higher and managed to split the points, which shows they are not without attacking threat.
One player to watch closely for Greece is Christos Tzolis, who contributed an assist in the last match and generated two shots from midfield, making him a consistent creative outlet. For Italy, Pio Esposito stood out against Luxembourg with a goal and four total shots, and he is likely to be the focal point of Baldini’s attack once again.
Hot stat: Italy’s form string reads wlldlwwwwwwlwlw, which points to a side that has strung together a solid run of wins over the medium term, even if their recent sample in this tournament is limited to just one match.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Friendly 2026, June Phase |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Greece vs Italy Prediction
The bookmakers price Greece as slight favorites at around 2.00, which we find a touch generous given Italy’s superior form across the year. Italy have won two of their three matches in 2026, while Greece are yet to register a single win in three outings this year. That form gap is significant even in a friendly context.
We predict Italy to win this match. Baldini’s side has been more clinical in front of goal, and their defensive discipline, shown by eight interceptions in the last match compared to Greece’s seven, gives them a slight edge in transition. Greece will make it competitive, but Italy’s attacking output of 15 total shots in the last game compared to Greece’s 13 suggests they generate more volume going forward.
Both sides play a 3-4 base shape, which often produces a compact midfield battle with limited space. Greece’s 11 fouls and Italy’s 10 in their respective last matches suggest neither side is shy about physicality, and that could lead to a stop-start game where set pieces become decisive. Greece have averaged just four corner kicks per match recently, compared to Italy’s seven, which is a meaningful difference if you are considering corners markets.
To be honest, we do not expect a high-scoring affair. Greece have drawn or lost in all three of their 2026 matches, and Italy’s win over Luxembourg was a 1-0 grind. A tight, low-scoring Italian win makes the most sense here.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Italy to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Greece have played three matches in 2026 without a single win. Their form string over the longer run reads lwlwwwwlllwdldd, which tells a story of inconsistency. The draw with Sweden was actually their best result of the recent period, as they came from behind to level at 2-2, with Konstantinos Tsimikas and Georgios Masouras both finding the net. Before that, Greece were held 0-0 by Hungary and lost 1-0 to Paraguay. The squad under Jovanovic shows defensive solidity at times, but the attack is too reliant on individual moments rather than consistent patterns.
Italy’s recent record looks healthier. Their form string over the broader sample reads wlldlwwwwwwlwlw, pointing to a team that wins more often than not when they are firing. The win over Luxembourg was functional rather than flashy, with Pio Esposito’s goal the difference. Before that, Italy suffered a heavy 2-5 defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is the one blemish worth flagging. They beat Northern Ireland 2-0 and lost 1-4 to Norway in earlier 2026 fixtures, so their performances have been uneven. Gianluigi Donnarumma’s presence in goal remains a stabilizing factor, even in friendlies.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Greece | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1 |
| Total shots | 13 | 15 |
| Free kicks | 11 | 10 |
| Corner kicks | 4 | 7 |
| Total fouls | 11 | 10 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 87% | 85% |
| Interceptions | 7 | 8 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Greece vs Italy stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Greece the Favourite
- Moneyline Greece 2.00 | Italy 3.10
- Draw 3.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.90 | Under 2.5 1.45
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.50 | No 1.55
The market prices Greece as slim favorites, and while playing in Bergen gives them something of a neutral-ground advantage, we think Italy at 3.10 represents genuine value. Greece have not won a single match in 2026 across three attempts, and Italy’s year-long win rate of 67% is the stronger number. The under 2.5 odds at around 1.45 look fair given both teams’ recent low-scoring outputs, and No on BTTS at 1.55 aligns with Italy’s ability to keep clean sheets when they are organized.
Possible Starting Lineups
Greece Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Konstantinos Tzolakis
- DF: Konstantinos Mavropanos, Konstantinos Koulierakis, Panagiotis Retsos
- MF: Llazaros Rota, Christos Zafeiris, Dimitrios Kourbelis, Christos Tzolis
- MF: Giorgos Kyriakopoulos
- FW: Vangelis Pavlidis, Georgios Masouras
Jovanovic appears to favor a 3-4-1-2 shape, with Mavropanos anchoring a three-man backline. Tzolakis took the gloves for 80 minutes in the Sweden match and is likely to start ahead of Vlachodimos. Christos Tzolis is the most creative player in this squad, operating in the second line of midfield. His ability to find pockets of space and drive forward with the ball makes him the key man to watch. Pavlidis leads the line but has been quiet in front of goal recently, and Greece will need him to be more clinical if they are to cause problems for Italy’s defense.
Italy Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- DF: Marco Palestra, Niccolò Pisilli, Tommaso Berti
- MF: Niccolò Pisilli, Tommaso Berti
- FW: Pio Esposito
Italy’s available data from the last match is limited, but Baldini has shown a preference for a 3-4-2-1 shape. Donnarumma is the automatic starter in goal and brings international-level quality that stands above anyone else in this fixture. Pio Esposito is the player to watch up front: four shots and a goal against Luxembourg show he is sharp and willing to get into dangerous positions. Niccolò Pisilli’s assist in the last game also highlights his importance as a link between midfield and attack. Italy’s depth in the final third gives them an edge over a Greece side that has struggled to find consistency in front of goal throughout 2026.
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Greece. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
This match sets up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Greece have not won in three 2026 outings, and their form across the longer run shows too many draws and losses to inspire confidence against a side like Italy. Italy’s 67% win rate this year is the stronger number, and their shot volume, corner count, and interception stats all point to a team that controls matches more consistently.
We predict Italy to win 1-0. Perhaps the most telling figure is Greece’s failure to win any of their three 2026 matches, while Italy have taken maximum points in two of three. Donnarumma’s experience in goal and Esposito’s sharpness in attack give Baldini’s side enough to take the three points in Bergen. The Italy win to nil market at around 3.00 across most books is the pick we are backing.
