Al Ahli SC vs Al-Hazem Prediction: 11.09.2026 Saudi Pro League 2026/27 Preview

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Al Ahli SC host Al-Hazem at the Prince Abdullah Al-Faisal Sports City Stadium in a fixture that looks lopsided on paper but carries a genuine wrinkle. The hosts have dropped three of their last five outings, including back to back defeats against Al-Hilal and Al Kholood, while Al-Hazem arrive unbeaten in three of their own last five games. Al Ahli remain the far superior squad on paper, but their recent home form has not matched their reputation, and that gap between reputation and reality is exactly what makes this match worth a closer look.

Ivan Toney has been the difference maker for Al Ahli, scoring five goals in his last five appearances and looking like the focal point of every attacking move Marino Pusic designs. On the other side, Afimico Pululu carries Al-Hazem’s hopes up front, contributing a goal and an assist while getting off nine shots across his last five matches, a workload that shows he is central to Jalel Kadri’s game plan even when results go against him.

The hot stat of this preview belongs to Toney: five goals in five games for a player who has single-handedly kept Al Ahli’s attack functioning through an otherwise inconsistent stretch. That kind of scoring rate against a Al-Hazem defense that has conceded in four of its last five matches should worry Jalel Kadri’s back line heading into Jeddah.

Al Ahli SC vs Al-Hazem prediction

We predict Al Ahli SC to win, but not by the wide margin the bookmakers’ 74% implied probability suggests. Al-Hazem have drawn twice and lost narrowly in their last five, showing a team capable of staying compact rather than collapsing. Our pick leans toward Al Ahli to win with both teams scoring, a market that captures the hosts’ attacking edge without ignoring Al-Hazem’s habit of finding the net even in defeat.

Al Ahli’s numbers back an attacking approach: 70 shots and 26 corners in their last five games against Al-Hazem’s 42 shots and 21 corners. The visitors compensate with physicality, racking up 13 yellow cards compared to Al Ahli’s 7 and committing more fouls per match. That disciplinary gap could easily produce a card-heavy affair, and it also suggests Al-Hazem might concede a set-piece or two given their deeper defensive positioning and 81% pass accuracy against Al Ahli’s sharper 85%.

Team Analysis

Al Ahli SC head into this game off the back of a 2-3 loss to Al Qadsiah, a result that stretched their rough patch to three defeats in five matches. Before that setback they thumped Al-Riyadh 5-0, so the squad clearly has the firepower, it just has not found consistency defensively. Sitting ninth in the table with 9 points from 6 games despite a plus-4 goal difference tells its own story: Al Ahli score freely but leak goals at inconvenient moments, something Al-Hazem’s counter-attacking threats could exploit if given space.

Al-Hazem, meanwhile, arrive on the back of a tidy 1-0 win over Al Taawoun, their first victory in three matches after back to back draws against Al-Faisaly and Al Shabab. That run of one win, two draws and two losses in their last five matches puts them tenth in the standings on 8 points, only one behind Al Ahli. The 3-2 loss to Al Ittihad earlier in that stretch showed Al-Hazem can trade goals with stronger sides, and Jalel Kadri will likely ask his side to stay disciplined defensively while trusting Pululu to punish any Al Ahli lapses.

🚨Check out our dedicated Al Ahli SC vs Al-Hazem stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Al Ahli SC the favourite

• Moneyline Al Ahli SC 1.19 | Al-Hazem 9.00
• Draw 5.25

Bookmakers price Al Ahli as heavy favourites, and the numbers line up with their squad quality even after a shaky run of form. The gap between 1.19 and 9.00 looks steep given Al-Hazem’s recent draws, but markets tend to weigh overall squad strength over short-term form dips, and Al Ahli’s roster simply outclasses their opponents on paper. To be honest, we think there is more value on the goals markets than backing the short favourite outright.

Possible Starting Lineups

Marino Pusic tends to stick with his 4-2-3-1 shape, and the data backs that up: Mendy has started every game between the posts, while Ibañez and Demiral anchor a back line that still leaks goals under pressure. Spertsyan and Trincão have combined for three goal contributions in five games, and Toney’s five goals make him the man defenders must track at all times.

Jalel Kadri also favours a 4-2-3-1, and Zaied’s 17 saves across five games show why he keeps his starting spot despite the defensive struggles around him. Mugisha and Bah give the midfield some steel with a combined 18 interceptions, and Pululu remains the outlet Al-Hazem lean on whenever they need a goal against the run of play.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Al Ahli SC should win this one, and our punters team backs that view without hesitation, but the manner of victory matters more than the result itself. A defense that has shipped goals in three of its last five games faces a Al-Hazem attack led by a forward who keeps finding ways to contribute even in losing efforts. We predict a 2-1 win for the hosts, with goals at both ends and a corner count that favours Al Ahli’s more possession-heavy setup. Perhaps the bigger surprise on the night would be Al-Hazem keeping a clean sheet, something they have managed only once in their last five outings.

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