Sofia Quijada
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Girona welcome Mallorca to Estadi Montilivi with both sides separated by a single point and a single place in the La Liga 2 table. Girona sit fifth on 13 points, Mallorca sixth on the same tally, and both arrive with contrasting recent patterns worth noting before kickoff. Girona have scored freely in their last five games while leaking goals at almost a one-per-match rate, whereas Mallorca have barely conceded in the same stretch but have also struggled to find the net themselves. That contrast, a leaky-but-productive Girona against a stingy-but-blunt Mallorca, sets up an intriguing tactical puzzle.
Carles Pérez has been Girona’s standout attacker across the last five matches, contributing two goals and an assist while racking up nine shots, and he looks the most likely home player to find the scoresheet. For Mallorca, Adrian Fuentes carries the attacking burden almost single-handedly with three goals from his last five appearances and a team-high nine shots, making him the man Girona’s back line needs to track closely.
Hot stat: Girona have netted seven goals across their last five matches, more than double Mallorca’s return of three in the same span, yet Mallorca have conceded only once outside of their defeat to Almeria. The gap between Girona’s firepower and Mallorca’s parsimony is the number that shapes this entire preview.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadi Montilivi, Girona |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Girona vs Mallorca prediction
We predict a tight, low-scoring home win for Girona. The hosts have won four of their last five outings and four of their last five at home overall per the season table, and the bookmakers’ 42% implied probability for Girona undersells how comfortable they have looked in Montilivi this term. Mallorca’s defense, though, is not an afterthought: a single goal conceded in four of their last five games (outside the Almeria defeat) means we lean toward a narrow margin rather than a rout.
Girona’s style leans attacking under the 4-2-3-1, generating 51 shots across the last five matches against a modest 42 fouls committed, a sign they prioritize ball progression over physical disruption. Mallorca’s 4-4-2 is noticeably more combative, with 56 fouls and 14 yellow cards in the same window compared to Girona’s 10, plus 20 corners won against Girona’s 11. That physical, set-piece-heavy approach from the away side suggests a scrappier game than Girona’s attacking numbers alone would imply, and we expect several stoppages and a congested midfield battle for large stretches.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Carles Pérez to score anytime |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Girona’s last match ended 2-0 against Albacete, continuing a run that has brought four wins from their last five outings, with only a 1-2 slip against Castellon breaking the sequence. The 5-2 demolition of Las Palmas two games prior shows the ceiling of this attack when it clicks. In our preview of Girona vs Albacete we called a comfortable home win by two goals or more with goals at both ends unlikely from Albacete, and the 2-0 result delivered the win and the clean sheet angle, even though the overall goal tally stayed lower than our over 2.5 lean suggested.
Mallorca’s last match was a 0-1 home defeat to Almeria, snapping a run that had otherwise looked solid defensively, with clean sheets against Real Sociedad B, Sabadell and Ceuta in the preceding three games. In our preview of Mallorca vs Almeria we backed a narrow home win built on Mallorca’s tight defense, and the 0-1 scoreline went against that call, with Almeria scoring the game’s only goal on the road. Mallorca will want to respond quickly, perhaps leaning on Fuentes again to generate the chances their defense alone cannot win them.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
The two sides have met four times across the last two La Liga 2 campaigns, splitting those meetings two wins apiece with no draws. Girona won 2-1 and 1-0 in their two home-ground victories, while Mallorca claimed a 1-0 and a 2-1 success of their own, underlining how even this fixture has been historically.
| Statistic | Girona | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 4 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Girona vs Mallorca stats page for more info.
Mallorca. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Girona the favourite
- Moneyline Girona 2.15 | Mallorca 3.20
- Draw 3.30
Girona’s odds around 2.15-2.30 reflect their home advantage and sharper attacking form, but the market still gives Mallorca a real chance near 30%, a fair reflection of their defensive numbers. We see value in backing Girona on the moneyline rather than chasing a goals market, given how little separates these two teams statistically outside of raw attacking output.
Possible Starting Lineups
Girona possible starting eleven
- GK: Paulo Gazzaniga
- DF: Alejandro Francés, Álex Moreno, Mauro Furtado, Abdul Mumin
- MF: David López Silva, Izan González
- FW: Carles Pérez, Donny van de Beek, Yaser Asprilla, Abel Ruíz
The 4-2-3-1 shape suits Girona’s current squad depth, with López Silva and González screening a back four that has looked occasionally exposed this season. Carles Pérez is the player to watch given his goal involvement, while Abel Ruíz leads the line ahead of Christian Stuani, who has featured but barely touched the ball in recent minutes.
Mallorca possible starting eleven
- GK: Arnau Tenas
- DF: Antonio José Raíllo Arenas, Martin Valjent, Aboubaka Soumahoro, Miguel Calatayud García
- MF: Manuel Morlanes, Sergi Darder, Pablo Torre, Alex Sala
- FW: Adrian Fuentes, Adrian Liso
Mallorca’s 4-4-2 relies on a settled back four and a busy midfield quartet, with Alex Sala’s 13 shots over five games standing out as an underrated attacking outlet from deep. Adrian Fuentes remains the focal point up front, and his movement against Girona’s less experienced centre-backs could decide how open this game becomes.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Girona. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our punters team settles on a narrow Girona win, perhaps 1-0 or 2-1, built on the hosts’ superior recent scoring record and home comfort against a Mallorca side still searching for consistent attacking output. The under 2.5 goals line looks the smarter total-goals play given Mallorca’s defensive discipline outside the Almeria slip, and we expect Carles Pérez to be involved again given his recent run of form. To be honest, Mallorca’s physical approach and set-piece volume could keep this closer than the headline form numbers suggest, so we would not be shocked by a single-goal margin either way.
