Sofia Quijada
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Mallorca sit fourth with 13 points, Almeria fifth with 12, and only one point separates the two clubs going into matchday seven. Son Moix has turned into a fortress this term: Mallorca have shipped just two goals in six league games, a defensive record matched only by league leaders Castellon. Almeria arrive on a three-match winning run of their own, scoring at least two goals in each of those games. We predict a cagey, low-event contest where the hosts’ shape edges it.
Watch Adrian Fuentes for Mallorca, four goals from five appearances and the focal point of every attack down the middle. On the other side, Javier Muñoz Jiménez has been directly involved in four goals (2 goals, 2 assists) in just three appearances for Almeria, a rate that could punish any lapse from the home backline.
Hot stat: Mallorca have conceded only two goals across their opening six league matches, giving them the joint-stingiest defense in La Liga 2 alongside Castellon, a number that towers over almost every side in the division.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadi Mallorca Son Moix |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:15 CEST |
Mallorca vs Almeria prediction
Mallorca’s home form and defensive solidity make them the value pick to win outright rather than by a wide margin, backed at odds around 2.05. Their last five results read 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 3-0 and 0-2, a pattern of tight scorelines that fits a side built on control rather than chaos. Almeria have been more porous on the road this season, conceding in four of their last five outings, which plays into Mallorca’s hands at Son Moix.
Mallorca committed 47 fouls and picked up 10 yellow cards across their last five matches, a fairly disciplined approach compared to Almeria’s 54 fouls and 8 cards, plus a red card shown in that same stretch. Passing numbers favor the hosts too, roughly 86% completion against Almeria’s 82%, suggesting Mallorca will dictate tempo and force Almeria into more physical, foul-prone defending. That combination points toward a match low on cards for the hosts but potentially spicier around Almeria’s back line.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Mallorca to win & Almeria over 1.5 team fouls conceded |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Mallorca’s last outing produced a narrow 1-0 win over Real Sociedad B, their fourth victory in five matches. That result continued a run in which Luis García’s side have won three, drawn one and lost just one of their last five, scoring six and conceding a mere two across that stretch. The 3-0 thrashing of Ceuta and the 0-0 stalemate with Eldense both show a team comfortable controlling matches without needing to take risks going forward.
Almeria head into this one off the back of a 2-0 win over Celta Vigo B, their third straight victory after opening the recent stretch with back-to-back losses to Tenerife and Sabadell. Xavier García Pimienta’s side have found rhythm attacking-wise, netting seven goals in their last five games, though the two early defeats in that sample show they can still be got at defensively, something Mallorca’s forward line will look to exploit.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Mallorca and Almeria have not met in a competitive fixture recently, so there is no historical head-to-head sample to draw from for this preview.
🚨Check out our dedicated Mallorca vs Almeria stats page for more info.
Almeria. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Mallorca the favourite
- Moneyline Mallorca 2.05 | Almeria 3.50
- Draw 3.30
Bookmakers give Mallorca a 45% implied chance of victory against 26% for Almeria and 29% for the draw, a gap that mirrors the standings and the defensive numbers on display. Odds hovering around 2.05 for the hosts look fair rather than generous, but the underlying stats, fewest goals conceded in the division, home advantage, and a red card already picked up by Almeria’s backline this month, support backing Mallorca with confidence.
Possible Starting Lineups
Mallorca possible starting eleven
- GK: Arnau Tenas
- DF: Miguel Calatayud García, Martin Valjent, Antonio José Raíllo Arenas, Aboubaka Soumahoro
- MF: Manuel Morlanes, Sergi Darder, Pablo Torre, Alex Sala, Adrian Liso
- FW: Adrian Fuentes
Luis García sticks with his usual 4-2-3-1, pairing Morlanes and Darder as the deeper pivot to shield a back four that has barely been troubled this season. Sala and Torre rotate through the half-spaces while Fuentes leads the line as the clear focal point, four goals already this term and the man most likely to break the deadlock.
Almeria possible starting eleven
- GK: Andrés Fernández
- DF: Federico Bonini, Marcos Luna, Álex Muñoz, Rodrigo Ely
- MF: Stefan Džodić, Quim junyent, Javier Muñoz Jiménez, Nicolás Melamed Ribaudo, Brian Cipenga
- FW: Miguel De La Fuente
Xavier García Pimienta also favors a 4-2-3-1, with Džodić and Quim junyent screening the back four while Muñoz Jiménez operates just behind De La Fuente, the striker with 10 shots and a goal across his last five games. Cipenga’s three assists in that span make him a genuine threat on the counter if Almeria sit deeper away from home.
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Mallorca. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Mallorca’s defensive numbers are too strong to ignore, two goals conceded in six league matches, and their home form gives them a clear edge over an Almeria side that still leaks goals on the road despite a decent recent run. We predict a narrow home win, somewhere in the 1-0 or 2-0 range, with Fuentes the most likely name on the scoresheet. Perhaps the safer route for punters is combining the Mallorca win with under 2.5 goals, a market that reflects both sides’ recent scoring patterns without overreaching on the margin.
