Levi Rothermund
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Jürgen Klopp’s Germany welcome Serbia to the Allianz Arena with both sides sitting at the wrong end of League A Group 2. Germany sit third with a single point, Serbia are rock bottom with none at all. There is a strange thread linking both camps here: Greece beat them both inside the last two windows, which tells you plenty about how open this group has become. Klopp’s side arrive with a defense that has leaked goals in bursts all year, and Serbia’s back line has been even shakier on the road.
Joshua Kimmich remains the man dictating Germany’s tempo from midfield, pulling the strings with far more passes attempted than anyone else in the squad over the last five games. On the Serbian side, Dušan Tadić still carries the creative burden, and his dead-ball delivery gives Serbia a puncher’s chance even when the run of play goes against them.
Hot stat: Germany have completed 1,100 passes across their last five matches compared to Serbia’s 681, a gap of 419 passes that shows the host nation controlling the ball comfortably even while results have gone sideways.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Allianz Arena, Munich |
| 🗓️ Date: | 01.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Germany vs Serbia prediction
We lean toward Germany to win, though not by the margin the raw odds imply. The hosts have scored just once across their last five matches on paper, which sits oddly next to their possession numbers, but the finishing has clearly dried up under Klopp lately. Serbia have shipped goals in four straight games and conceded thirteen across their last five, so we think the net stays busy at both ends. Our pick is Germany to win with both teams scoring, since Serbia’s attack through Jovic and Živković has shown enough bite to trouble a Germany defense that has looked far from settled this cycle.
Germany’s discipline stats show only two yellow cards from their last five matches against Serbia’s three, and their fouls count sits lower too (28 versus 18 is actually higher for Germany here, worth noting since Serbia commit fewer fouls but pick up more cards doing it). Pass accuracy heavily favors the hosts, over 88% compared to Serbia hovering closer to 82%, which usually translates into more sustained pressure and, honestly, more corners and set pieces for the home side.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Germany -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Germany go into this one off the back of an eleven-match unbeaten run that has since collapsed into a rough patch: one win, a draw, and three defeats in their last five outings. The most recent of those was a 0-1 defeat away to Greece, a game where Germany again struggled to turn possession into anything meaningful in front of goal. In our preview of Germany vs Greece we called a draw-no-bet lean on Germany paired with goals at both ends, and the eventual 0-1 loss with no goals for the hosts went against that call.
Serbia’s slide has been steeper still. Four straight losses precede this trip to Munich, the latest a 1-2 defeat at home to the Netherlands where Tadić’s assist kept them in the contest before the Dutch pulled clear late on. Paunovic’s side have won just one of their last six matches overall, a stat that lines up with their 17% winrate this year. In our preview of Serbia vs Netherlands we backed the Dutch to win with goals at both ends, and the 1-2 scoreline delivered exactly that outcome for us.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Germany and Serbia have not faced each other in a competitive fixture within our recent data window, so there is no meaningful head-to-head sample to break down for this one.
🚨Check out our dedicated Germany vs Serbia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Germany the favourite
- Moneyline Germany 1.25 | Serbia 10.50
- Draw 6.00
The market is not shy about this one. Germany priced around 1.25 reflects the bookmakers’ 75% implied win probability, and Serbia at double figures shows just how little faith is placed in an away win here. We think the price is fair given the form gap, though maybe a touch harsh on Serbia considering they have found the net in four of their last five games regardless of the result.
Possible Starting Lineups
Germany possible starting eleven
- GK: Marc-André ter Stegen
- DF: Jonathan Tah, Yann Bisseck, Josha Vagnoman, Nathaniel Brown
- MF: Joshua Kimmich, Anton Stach, Felix Nmecha
- FW: Serge Gnabry, Karim Adeyemi, Kevin Schade
Klopp looks set to keep faith with the same core that has featured across the recent matches, with Kimmich and Stach shielding the back four in a 4-2-3-1 shape. Nmecha pushes forward off the double pivot, while Gnabry and Adeyemi stretch the play wide with Schade leading the line. Watch Adeyemi in particular, he has racked up the most shots of any forward in this sample and looks the likeliest source of a breakthrough.
Serbia possible starting eleven
- GK: Vanja Milinković-Savić
- DF: Strahinja Pavlovic, Srdjan Babic, Strahinja Erakovic, Filip Kostić
- MF: Sergej Milinković-Savić, Dušan Tadić, Saša Lukić, Nemanja Gudelj
- FW: Luka Jovic, Andrija Živković
Paunovic sticks with a 4-4-2 setup that has been the constant across the last five fixtures. Sergej Milinković-Savić and Tadić carry the creative load through the middle, and Jovic’s movement up front gives Serbia their best shot at a set-piece or transition goal against a Germany side prone to lapses.
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Serbia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Germany should win this one, but we are not backing them to do it cleanly. Their attack has gone quiet at the wrong time, and Serbia have shown a habit of scoring even in losing efforts. Our call is Germany to win with both teams finding the net, and for anyone chasing extra value, the -1.5 Asian Handicap on Germany carries genuine appeal given how big the gap in quality looks on paper. Maybe Serbia dig in for a while, but the pattern of this season suggests their defense cracks eventually, and Munich is not the place to hope for a clean sheet.
Read also: Germany vs Serbia: Predicted Line-ups, Confirmed Absentees & Team News
