Levi Rothermund
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Germany walk into matchday two as heavy favourites on paper, yet it is Greece who sit top of League A Group 2 after their opening win. Klopp’s side drew with the Netherlands while Greece edged past Serbia away from home, a result that flips the usual script for this pairing.
The two sides last met in a June 2024 friendly that Germany won 2-1 when bookmakers gave them a 77% chance. This time the market has trimmed that confidence to 68%, and honestly, given how leaky the German defense has looked across their last five outings, that drop in certainty feels justified.
Joshua Kimmich remains the metronome for Germany, dictating tempo from deep and rarely wasting possession. On the other side, Christos Tzolis has been Greece’s most direct outlet, someone who can turn a half chance into a shot with one touch. Both players carry disproportionate influence over how open this game becomes.
Hot stat: Germany hammered Curacao 7-1 in one of their last five matches, then somehow shipped five goals in a 4-5 defeat to Paraguay in the same stretch. That swing from ruthless to reckless sums up why nobody should treat this German side as a defensive banker right now.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 2 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Germany vs Greece prediction
We think the smarter play here is Germany Draw No Bet rather than the outright moneyline. Germany’s attack has scored freely against weaker sides, but their back four has cracked under real pressure in three of the last five games. A draw no bet ticket protects against the stalemate scenario, which is not unlikely given Greece just showed at Serbia that they can grind out results away from home.
Style-wise, the contrast is clear. In their most recent outing Greece completed 588 passes at a much higher volume than Germany’s 370, took 26 shots to Germany’s 10 and won six corners against a single one for the Germans. Yet Germany committed 16 fouls compared to Greece’s 7, which suggests a more physical, stop-start approach that could invite cards if Karetsas or Tzolis get running at that back line. That foul gap is worth watching for anyone eyeing card markets too.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Half-Time/Full-Time: Draw/Germany |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Germany’s last match ended 1-1 against the Netherlands, a game where they never truly settled defensively despite good spells in possession. Before that, they lost 4-5 to Paraguay in a genuinely chaotic friendly, then fell 1-2 to Ecuador. The two wins in this five-game sample, 2-1 over Côte d’Ivoire and a one-sided 7-1 romp against Curacao, both came against sides ranked far below them. In our preview of Netherlands vs Germany we leaned toward a goal-heavy affair with Over 2.5 as our headline shout, and the tight 1-1 scoreline means that call fell short even though both sides did find the net.
Greece head into Bergen on the back of a 2-1 win over Serbia that put them top of the group. That result followed a rougher run: a 0-1 loss to Italy, a 2-2 draw with Sweden, a goalless draw against Hungary and a 0-1 defeat to Paraguay. The Serbia win looks like a turning point more than a fluke, built on discipline rather than firepower. In our preview of Serbia vs Greece we favored a tight, low-scoring game with Serbia’s home edge or a stalemate, backing under 2.5 goals alongside a Serbia draw no bet. Greece’s 2-1 away win, with three goals shared between the sides, went directly against that shout.
🚨Check out our dedicated Germany vs Greece stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Germany the favourite
- Moneyline Germany 1.39 | Greece 7.00
- Draw 5.00
The market has Germany at roughly 68% to win this one, which lines up with the bookmaker average given for the fixture. We think that price is fair rather than generous. Germany’s raw quality edge is real, but their defensive form this year does not scream “safe favourite,” and Greece’s away win at Serbia shows they travel better than the odds might suggest.
Possible Starting Lineups
Germany possible starting eleven
- GK: Marc-André ter Stegen
- DF: Jonathan Tah, Nico Schlotterbeck, Nathaniel Brown, Philipp Treu
- MF: Joshua Kimmich, Nadiem Amiri
- FW: Karim Adeyemi, Felix Nmecha, Kevin Schade, Kai Havertz
Klopp sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that has been used in each of the last five games. Ter Stegen keeps his place after a clean sheet-adjacent shift against the Dutch, while Kimmich and Amiri sit as the double pivot shielding a back four that has looked shaky under sustained pressure. Adeyemi’s pace out wide and Havertz through the middle give this side its cutting edge, and both need to be sharp early if Germany want to avoid another slow start.
Greece possible starting eleven
- GK: Konstantinos Tzolakis
- DF: Konstantinos Mavropanos, Panagiotis Retsos, Konstantinos Tsimikas, Georgios Vagiannidis
- MF: Christos Zafeiris, Dimitrios Kourbelis
- FW: Christos Tzolis, Konstantinos Karetsas, Anastasios Douvikas, Vangelis Pavlidis
Jovanovic also runs a 4-2-3-1, and the same back four that beat Serbia gets the nod again. Tzolakis has started every recent game in goal, and the Zafeiris-Kourbelis pairing gives Greece control in midfield without conceding too much ground. Tzolis and Pavlidis carry the attacking burden, and if Karetsas finds pockets between the lines, Germany’s fouling tendency could turn into a real problem for them.
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Greece. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Germany should have enough quality to avoid defeat here, but we are not convinced they win this comfortably. Their defense has conceded in four of their last five matches, and Greece arrive with genuine confidence after toppling Serbia on the road. Our lean is Germany Draw No Bet paired with BTTS Yes, since both attacks have shown enough in this sample to find the net, while the draw remains a live outcome given how the group table currently reads. Maybe Germany edge it late, maybe Greece hold on for another point, but a clean German win to nil looks unlikely on the evidence in front of us.
Read Also: Germany vs Greece: Predicted Lineups & Team News – Sunday 27 September 2026
