Liam Duckstein
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Serbia host the Netherlands in Group 2 of League A with both sides carrying opening-round scars. Veljko Paunovic’s men lost their opener to Greece, while Xavi’s Dutch side were held to a draw by Germany despite carrying most of the attacking threat. The interesting wrinkle here is how leaky both defenses have looked in 2026, which sets up a fixture that could easily turn into a shootout rather than the cagey affair the fixture list might suggest.
Cody Gakpo has scored in his last outing and remains the Dutch player most likely to punish Serbia’s high defensive line. On the other side, Dušan Tadić still pulls the strings for Serbia from midfield and his set-piece delivery could be one of the hosts’ few routes to goal.
Hot stat: in their last five matches combined, the Netherlands out-shot Serbia 22 to 9 and won 12 corners against just 2, a gap that says plenty about which side dictates territory and tempo when these squads take the pitch.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 2 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
Serbia vs Netherlands prediction
We predict the Netherlands to win, and honestly the case is not close. Serbia have lost three of their last four matches, conceding heavily against Mexico and Cape Verde, while the Dutch have scored in nine of their last ten outings under Xavi. Backing Netherlands to win combined with Over 2.5 goals looks like the sharpest value here, given how often both squads have shipped goals recently rather than shutting up shop.
Serbia’s discipline has been a concern too. Their fouls count sits at 11 per match alongside a modest 91.9% pass accuracy split across recent games, numbers that point to a side forced into reactive, physical defending rather than controlled possession play. The Dutch, by contrast, average 348 passes at a cleaner 85.1% accuracy and commit a similar 11 fouls, but they generate far more shots and corners from that platform. Expect Netherlands to dominate territory, with Serbia relying on transitions and set pieces to stay competitive.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Netherlands -1 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Serbia’s recent form reads three losses, a win, and another loss across their last five games, and the pattern is ugly: 5 conceded against Mexico, 3 against Cape Verde, and 2 in their most recent defeat to Greece. In our preview of Serbia vs Greece we called a tight, low-scoring game with Serbia edging it at home or the match finishing level, backed by under 2.5 goals and a draw no bet on the hosts. The 1-2 final score went against us on both fronts, with Serbia losing outright and the game producing three goals rather than staying under the line.
Netherlands arrive with a steadier recent record of a draw, a loss, and two wins across their last five, though their own defending has been shaky at times, conceding four against Morocco and drawing 1-1 with Germany most recently. In our preview of Netherlands vs Germany we leaned toward goals at both ends, suggesting Over 2.5 combined with BTTS Yes as the safer angle while giving Netherlands a slight edge. The 1-1 result delivered on the BTTS side since both teams scored, but the goals total stayed under 2.5, so the call only landed in part.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Serbia and the Netherlands have not met in any recent competitive fixture that our data covers, so there is no head-to-head table to draw from for this preview.
🚨Check out our dedicated Serbia vs Netherlands stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Netherlands the favourite
- Moneyline Serbia 7.00 | Netherlands 1.42
- Draw 4.65
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 1.95
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.90 | No 1.80
Bookmakers have this fixture pegged at roughly 66% for Netherlands, 21% for the draw, and just 14% for Serbia, and the market prices back that up clearly. The tight gap between the Over/Under lines suggests bookmakers expect goals from both ends rather than a shutout win, which lines up with what both sides have shown defensively this year.
Serbia. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Serbia possible starting eleven
- GK: Vanja Milinković-Savić
- DF: Strahinja Pavlović, Strahinja Eraković, Nikola Simić, Filip Kostić
- MF: Sergej Milinković-Savić, Nemanja Maksimović, Dušan Tadić, Saša Lukić
- FW: Andrija Živković, Luka Jović
Paunovic sticks with his usual 4-2-3-1 shape. Tadić operates just behind Jović as the creative outlet, and his set-piece quality matters given how few clean chances Serbia have generated from open play recently.
Netherlands possible starting eleven
- GK: Bart Verbruggen
- DF: Virgil van Dijk, Micky van de Ven, Jan Paul van Hecke, Denzel Dumfries
- MF: Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Joey Veerman, Guus Til
- FW: Cody Gakpo, Crysencio Summerville
Xavi also favours a 4-2-3-1 setup, with Gravenberch and Reijnders screening in front of a back four anchored by van Dijk. Gakpo leads the line and is the player most likely to convert the volume of chances this side tends to create.
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Netherlands. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Netherlands to win this one, and perhaps comfortably given the gulf in shot volume and recent scoring output between these two squads. Serbia’s defense has cracked open against far weaker opposition than this Dutch attack, and there is little in their recent form to suggest a clean sheet is realistic. To be hones, the bigger question is whether Serbia can find the net themselves, and their set-piece work with Tadić gives them a puncher’s chance at BTTS. Netherlands to win with Over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring covers the most likely version of how this match plays out.
Read also: Serbia vs Netherlands Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 25 Sep 2026
Read also: Serbia vs Netherlands Predicted Lineups, Team News & Expected XIs
