Everton vs Newcastle Prediction: 29.11.2025 English Premier League

As Everton and Newcastle prepare to lock horns at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, Wirral, on a crisp Friday evening, the narrative runs deeper than their current league placements. Separated by just three points, both sides find themselves at a crossroads, each seeking consistency in a campaign marked by unpredictability and shifting momentum. With both David Moyes and Eddie Howe tactically astute managers steering their squads, this clash feels less like a run-of-the-mill mid-table meeting and more like a pivotal test that could set the tone as we edge into a busy winter slate.

For Everton, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall brings much-needed dynamism in midfield, combining determined ball-winning with clever forward surges and creative output. On the other side, Newcastle’s Harvey Barnes is enjoying a purple patch, netting 4 goals in his last five appearances, and is now a prime source of attacking impetus in Howe’s evolving frontline. The tactical balance between these bright sparks and their supporting casts will be crucial — particularly with both teams preferring a 4-2-3-1 formation that emphasizes midfield control and quick transitions.

Here’s an eye-catching stat: In their last five outings, Newcastle have registered 20 corners – evidence of relentless attacking pressure, refining their set-piece threat and frequently forcing the opposition onto the back foot.

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Everton vs Newcastle prediction

This matchup comes defined by two equally unpredictable sides, both with a 50% win rate over the past month but very different approaches to recent fixtures. While Newcastle have not drawn in their last six league games, Everton have proven somewhat stubborn, notching gutsy clean sheets against Manchester United and Fulham before stumbling against Tottenham and Manchester City.

The data signals a clash likely to be settled on fine margins: Everton’s more conservative approach leads to lower shot counts (25 in the last 5 matches) and fewer goals, whereas Newcastle’s expansive play brings both high reward (7 goals) and risk (7 yellow cards and 55 fouls). Expect Newcastle to dominate possession and chances, but Everton’s discipline and shape could see them frustrate and counter — particularly with the lively Dewsbury-Hall and the revitalized Iliman Ndiaye to break with pace.

Given Newcastle’s propensity to concede (15 goals in 12 league matches and 3 losses in the last 6), both teams finding the net feels likely. Add to this Everton’s steady defensive improvement, and there’s every reason to anticipate another narrow outcome.

Everton’s tendency towards fouls (32 in their last five), combined with Newcastle’s high corner tally and aggressive press, suggests set pieces and cards could play a major role — don’t be surprised if we see a disruption-heavy midfield battle with plenty of stops and starts. Both sides are capable of disciplined defensive work, but with Newcastle’s broader array of attacking threats, they seem slightly better equipped to edge this contest, provided they keep their discipline at the back.

Team Analysis

Everton come into this fixture in fluctuating form, having secured pragmatic wins against Manchester United (1-0) and Fulham (2-0), a draw against Sunderland, and heavy losses to Tottenham and Manchester City. The 1-0 win over United stood out — not only for the clean sheet but also for the display of structured defending, spearheaded by an organized back four and the vigilant Jordan Pickford. With Dewsbury-Hall and Iliman Ndiaye both growing into creative roles, Everton are starting to look more incisive, though goal conversion remains a concern.

Newcastle, meanwhile, display a more cavalier approach: they bounced back from a Champions League setback (1-2 vs Marseille) with a rousing 2-1 win over Manchester City, albeit offset by sloppy defeats to Brentford and West Ham. Harvey Barnes’ return to form, plus the midfield dynamism of Bruno Guimarães and Sandro Tonali, offers depth and flexibility — but their increased yellow card (7 in last 5) and foul (55) count hints at a lack of midfield discipline, a factor that nearly cost them the Brentford match.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Everton vs Newcastle stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Newcastle the favourite

• Moneyline Everton 2.80 | Newcastle 2.60
• Draw 3.28
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.04 | Under 2.5 1.81
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.70 | No 2.05

The odds place Newcastle as marginal favourites — a fair reflection of their attacking output and slightly higher league standing. However, the relatively high draw price suggests bookmakers are wary of Everton’s stubbornness at home. With both teams sharing a win rate of 50% in the last month, and Newcastle’s propensity for both scoring and conceding, there’s good value in draw no bet options and expecting goals from both sides. If you’re hunting value, look towards corners or BTTS markets rather than outright winners.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Everton possible starting eleven

Moyes is likely to stick with the tried-and-trusted 4-2-3-1, favouring Pickford between the sticks and a solid centre-back pairing of Keane and Tarkowski. Dewsbury-Hall remains the linchpin in midfield, with his recent form making him one to watch. Expect Ndiaye and Barry to provide width, with McNeil supporting in attacking transitions. This setup has brought defensive solidity and spells of intricate play, especially with Dewsbury-Hall drifting between lines.

Newcastle possible starting eleven

Howe’s 4-2-3-1 will revolve around the creativity of Guimarães and the physicality of Joelinton. The wide play of Murphy and Barnes gives Newcastle both pace and end-product — especially crucial on counter-attacks. Pope’s leadership from the back keeps the defence organised, and with Schär’s distribution, Newcastle can quickly switch from defence to attack. Harvey Barnes is unquestionably the player to keep an eye on given his hot scoring streak.

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My take on the Match

We’re braced for a finely poised battle here, and while neither side has truly lit up the Premier League yet, Newcastle’s combination of attacking verve and depth slightly edges it for me. The Magpies’ high-energy pressing and corner-winning ability should carve openings, especially if Barnes continues his scoring streak. Still, Everton have proven they’re no pushovers at home and their compact shape can stifle even the best attacks, as shown in their shutouts against United and Fulham. For the smart punter, the Draw No Bet market on Newcastle and BTTS both offer appealing value, but expect the margins to be razor-thin — one moment of quality, or a set-piece, could be decisive. A 1-1 draw or a 2-1 Newcastle win seem the likeliest outcomes as we size up both sides’ strengths and frailties.

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