Liam Duckstein
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Everton welcome Newcastle to the Hill Dickinson Stadium for a Round 4 EFL Cup tie that arrives at an awkward moment for both sides. Neither club has found rhythm lately, and the cup often becomes a stage for squad rotation rather than full-strength statements. One quirky detail worth flagging: these two sides have already met twice this calendar year in other competitions, and both of those earlier meetings produced goals at both ends, a pattern that could easily repeat here given how porous each defense has looked recently.
Thierno Barry carries most of Everton’s attacking hope right now, his movement up front giving Moyes a focal point even on a night when rotation is likely. For Newcastle, Harvey Barnes has racked up more shots than anyone else in either squad over the last five games, and his willingness to shoot from distance makes him the man most likely to break a stalemate.
Hot stat: Newcastle’s heaviest defeat of the season came in this very competition, a 1-4 beating away at Coventry in the previous round, a result that still looks like the outlier on their otherwise respectable cup resume.
| 🏆 Tournament: | EFL Cup 2026/27, Round 4 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool |
| 🗓️ Date: | 29.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
Everton vs Newcastle prediction
We predict goals at both ends here. Everton have scored in just two of their last five matches, but Newcastle’s defense has been leaky enough to concede eleven goals across their own last five outings. Backing both teams to score feels like the sharpest read on this fixture, and we lean toward Newcastle edging the tie given the gap in overall quality between the two squads this season, even accounting for Everton’s home advantage.
Style-wise, Newcastle have committed more fouls (34 to Everton’s 25) and picked up more yellow cards (10 to 6) across their last five matches, suggesting a side playing with more physical intensity and perhaps more desperation. Everton’s passing numbers edge out Newcastle’s too, completing around 84.7% of their attempts compared to Newcastle’s 80.7%, which points to Moyes’ side controlling spells of possession without necessarily converting that control into clear chances. Expect a scrappy midfield battle with cards flying and Newcastle’s directness eventually breaking through.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Newcastle Double Chance & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Everton arrive off the back of two consecutive goalless defeats, losing 0-2 to Chelsea before falling by the same scoreline against Arsenal most recently. In our preview of Arsenal vs Everton we called a routine clean sheet win for the Gunners built on their tight defensive record, and the 0-2 scoreline delivered exactly that. Before those two defeats Everton had managed a 2-2 draw with Hull and back-to-back 1-0 wins over Ipswich and Wolves, so the attacking spark has clearly cooled off at the worst possible time heading into a cup tie.
Newcastle’s form reads as two wins and three losses across their last five, a mixed bag capped by a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace in their most recent outing. In our preview of Crystal Palace vs Newcastle we called the Magpies to avoid defeat in a tight, low-scoring game, and the 2-0 away win delivered on that call comfortably. Before that result Newcastle had lost to Aston Villa and suffered that heavy 1-4 cup defeat at Coventry, results that still hang over Jaissle’s side as they travel to Merseyside.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Everton | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 8 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Everton vs Newcastle stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Everton the favourite
- Moneyline Everton 2.10 | Newcastle 3.10
- Draw 3.50
Markets lean toward Everton despite their recent slump, mostly thanks to home advantage and the assumption that Newcastle will rotate heavily for a midweek cup tie. We think that price undersells Newcastle’s squad depth, and to be hones, we see the value sitting on the away side or at least on a BTTS angle rather than a straight Everton win.
Possible Starting Lineups
Everton possible starting eleven
- GK: Jordan Pickford
- DF: James Tarkowski, Jarrad Branthwaite, Jake O’Brien, Vitaliy Mykolenko
- MF: James Garner, Christian Nørgaard, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Tyler Dibling, Tyrique George
- FW: Thierno Barry
Moyes tends to favor his regular 4-2-3-1 even in cup competition, and the players above have logged the most minutes across the last five fixtures. Dewsbury-Hall stands out as the creative spark behind Barry, having contributed a goal and an assist in that stretch. Pickford remains undroppable given his save count and experience.
Newcastle possible starting eleven
- GK: Nick Pope
- DF: Amar Dedić, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall
- MF: Nico González, Joelinton, Jacob Murphy, Joe Willock, Yoane Wissa
- FW: Harvey Barnes
Jaissle’s 4-2-3-1 keeps González and Joelinton anchoring midfield while Barnes leads the line after racking up the most shots of any player in either squad lately. Botman adds goal threat from the back having scored in this stretch, and Hall’s workload on the left flank has been heavy enough to make him a near-automatic starter.
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Newcastle. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Everton’s defensive solidity in their last two games came at the cost of any attacking output, while Newcastle, even in defeat, have kept finding the net. We predict a tight, foul-ridden affair that ends up open at both ends, with Newcastle’s extra quality in the final third proving decisive late on. Our punters team is siding with Newcastle to progress, backing BTTS Yes alongside over 2.5 goals as the most sensible combination given both sides’ recent scoring and conceding patterns.
