Chaves vs Benfica Prediction: 17.10.2025 Taça de Portugal

The anticipation is high for this Round 3 Taça de Portugal matchup as Chaves welcome a formidable Benfica side to Estádio Engenheiro Branco Teixeira. Under the strategic gaze of Moreno, Chaves approach the contest in impressive domestic form, while José Mourinho’s Benfica aim to assert their superiority and march further in the competition. An intriguing subplot in this fixture is the tactical battle between a resolutely organized Chaves side and a reinvented, possession-dominant Benfica led by one of Europe’s most decorated managers.

Two players primed to make a decisive impact are Roberto, Chaves’ opportunistic forward fresh from scoring twice in his last two outings, and Vangelis Pavlidis, Benfica’s sharp talisman whose finishing has been vital in tight fixtures. Roberto’s knack for exploiting defensive lapses could trouble Benfica’s backline, while Pavlidis’ spatial awareness ensures Benfica are always a threat in transition and set-piece situations.

A ‘hot stat’ heading into the game: Benfica have clocked six goals in their last five matches, compared to Chaves’ three, while also recording a commanding 20 corner kicks — a testament to their territorial dominance and attacking persistence.

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Chaves vs Benfica prediction

Given their superior squad depth and recent record, Benfica enter this tie as clear favourites. The Eagles’ structured 4-2-3-1 approach allows them to control possession (2,264 passes in last five games) and generate a high volume of attempts on goal (61 shots), whereas Chaves, despite their strong run at home, rely heavily on direct play and opportunism, with fewer shots and a compact defensive block.

Benfica’s ball retention will likely stretch Chaves’ back line, especially as the hosts have averaged just 47 percent win rate this year and face a relentless pressing game. Mourinho’s team does have a caveat: their discipline, having accumulated 14 yellow cards in the last five matches, could be exploited by Chaves’ swift counters.

While Chaves’ defensive organization remains solid, the likelihood of them holding out for 90 minutes seems slim against the attacking trident featuring Pavlidis and the creative Heorhii Sudakov. Expect Benfica to break the deadlock through sustained pressure, but with Chaves’ home form and commitment, a goal from the hosts is also far from impossible.

Team Analysis

Chaves’ recent form has been marked by resilience and efficiency. Their last outing, a dogged 1-0 win over Vizela, showcased defensive discipline but also some lack of attacking fluidity — needing just a solitary goal to seal victory. In the preceding fixtures, Chaves picked up a 2-0 win over SC Farense and Paredes, and a tough 1-1 against Feirense. The defense, led by Tiago Melo Almeida and Zach Muscat, conceded just one goal in four games, but the attack has over-relied on sporadic moments from forwards like Roberto.
The team’s tactical setup (4-3-3 in recent matches) emphasizes defensive solidity and gradual build-up, with Pedro Pinho offering balance in midfield and Vozinha providing experience in goal.

Benfica’s recent games contrast sharply — high in ball precession, attacking intensity, and squad rotation. Their latest clash was a goalless draw in O Clássico against Porto, where disciplined defending from Otamendi and Antonio Silva neutralized their rivals. Prior, they were narrowly defeated by Chelsea (0-1), but took decisive wins over Gil Vicente (2-1) and AVS (3-0). Mourinho’s tactical flexibility is evidenced by frequent switches from a high press to patient, intricate buildup. The team has managed 6 goals, 20 corners, and a robust 43 interceptions in their last five outings, showing both defensive and offensive imprint.
Notably, Benfica’s midfield, marshaled by Sudakov and Aursnes, dictates play, and Pavlidis remains a clinical spearhead up front.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Chaves vs Benfica stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Benfica the favourite

• Moneyline Chaves 0.00 | Benfica 0.00
• Draw 0.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 0.00 | Under 2.5 0.00
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 0.00 | No 0.00

Despite the lack of concrete betting market figures, all statistical indicators and qualitative trends point toward Benfica being the overwhelming favourites. Their attacking metrics, squad depth, and tactical variety from Mourinho outweigh Chaves’ compact but limited approach. If there is value in the market, it is likely on Benfica covering a sizeable goal handicap and the likelihood of three or more goals.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Chaves possible starting eleven

Moreno is expected to stay loyal to the 4-3-3 formation that has yielded three clean sheets in the past four matches. Vozinha’s leadership and the emerging defensive partnership between Muscat and Almeida remain crucial. Pedro Pinho’s energy in midfield provides both cover and thrust, while Roberto’s recent goals underline his status as the chief attacking threat. Henrique Pereira’s work down the left adds an unpredictability factor that could stretch the Benfica defense.

Benfica possible starting eleven

José Mourinho is likely to deploy a 4-2-3-1 configuration to maximize his midfield control and attacking diversity. Otamendi and Silva anchor the defense with experience and composure. Sudakov provides the creative link between lines, and Pavlidis as the focal point up front is supported by the technical Schjelderup and the pace of Ivanovic. Dedić and Dahl’s adventurous full-back play offers width and crossing threats, suggesting a game plan built on overloads and rapid transitions.

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The Verdict

My primary prediction is a commanding Benfica victory. Their superior technical quality, balanced squad, and tactical innovations from Mourinho are primed to break down Chaves’ resistance. Expect Benfica’s disciplined creativity in central areas, powered by Sudakov’s intelligence and Pavlidis’ finishing, to deliver decisive moments. Chaves’ best hope is capitalizing on Benfica’s occasional lapses or discipline issues, but the breadth and depth of the visitor’s bench make an upset unlikely. Final score prediction: Chaves 1-3 Benfica.

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