Alex MacQuoid
Breidablik host Keflavik at Kópavogsvöllur on July 13 in what looks like a one-sided affair on paper — but the table standings tell a more interesting story. Breidablik sit fourth in the Besta deild karla with 18 points from 10 games, a position that feels slightly underwhelming given the quality they have shown in stretches. Keflavik are seventh with 11 points from 9 matches, and the gap between these two sides is real, but Keflavik have already held Breidablik to a 0-0 draw earlier this season. That result, played when bookmakers gave Breidablik only a 24% chance of winning, shows that Keflavik can be stubborn visitors.
One player to track closely is Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson for Breidablik. He scored in the most recent match and is clearly the most dynamic attacking presence in the squad, combining movement with directness that disrupts defensive structures. On the Keflavik side, Stefan Alexander Ljubicic carried real threat in their last outing — he scored, made two shots, and pressed high. If Keflavik are to cause any damage here, it will likely flow through him.
Hot stat: Breidablik put six goals past KR Reykjavik earlier in the season. That kind of output from a side sitting fourth shows there is genuine firepower in this squad when things click.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Besta deild karla 2026 — Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Kópavogsvöllur, Kopavogur |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:15 CEST |
Breidablik vs Keflavik Prediction
Breidablik are the clear favourite here, and honestly the form backs it up. They have won all three matches in the last 30 days with a 100% win rate, beating sides including Vikingur Reykjavik (3-0) and Akranes (2-1). Their recent sequence shows a team that has found consistency after an earlier stretch of mixed results. Keflavik, by contrast, played just one match in the past 30 days and drew it. They were beaten 6-1 by IBV Vestmannaeyjar not long ago — a result that exposed real defensive fragility.
We think a Breidablik win is the safest route, but the handicap or a combined market is where the value sits. The 0-0 draw from the reverse fixture keeps us honest about clean-sheet potential for Keflavik, but Breidablik at home are a different animal. Their 4-2-3-1 setup creates width and overloads in transition, and Keflavik’s 3-1-4-2 leaves them exposed on the flanks when they lose the ball high. With Breidablik averaging more corner kicks and fewer fouls, they tend to control games through possession and set-piece pressure rather than direct aggression. Keflavik commit fewer fouls too (7 per recent match), but their pass accuracy sits at 352 out of 423 attempted — decent, yet not enough to dominate midfield against a Breidablik side that moves the ball efficiently. We lean toward Breidablik to win and both teams not to score, given Keflavik’s attacking limitations on the road.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Breidablik to Win to Nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 6.5 |
Team Analysis
Breidablik’s last five matches paint a picture of a team that is heating up at the right time. They brushed aside Vikingur Reykjavik 3-0 and then edged Akranes 2-1 in their most recent outing. That Akranes win on July 5 was tight — Breidablik managed only 8 total shots and 7 corners, but they were clinical enough to take the three points. Earlier, they put three past Aegir and three past Vikingur, and they also produced that remarkable 6-3 result against KR Reykjavik. The one blip was a 3-4 defeat to Fram, but that was a high-scoring game against a side sitting second in the league. Coach Ólafur Ingi Skúlason has his team playing with confidence, and the home environment at Kópavogsvöllur adds another layer of comfort.
Keflavik’s recent form is harder to read. Their last competitive match was a 1-1 draw at home to Fram on July 7 — a respectable point against second-placed opposition. But the broader picture is patchy. They beat Akranes 3-1 and Thor Akureyri 1-0 in earlier rounds, yet they also lost 1-3 to Vikingur Reykjavik and suffered that heavy 1-6 defeat to IBV Vestmannaeyjar. That IBV result is difficult to explain away and suggests something structural went wrong defensively. Coach Haraldur Gudmundsson uses a 3-1-4-2 shape that can work well in compact defensive moments but struggles badly when the midfield gets bypassed. Against Breidablik’s width and movement, that is a real concern.
🚨Check out our dedicated Breidablik vs Keflavik stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Breidablik the Favourite
- Moneyline Breidablik 1.73 | Keflavik 3.85
- Draw 4.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The market is fairly decisive on Breidablik, with odds around 1.73 reflecting a genuine expectation of a home win. The draw at 4.20 carries some interest given the 0-0 from earlier in the season, but Breidablik’s current form makes another stalemate unlikely. Keflavik at 3.85 feels about right for a side that has struggled on the road and just came off a long gap between fixtures. The bookmaker average of 54% for Breidablik is honest. We would not chase the Keflavik price here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Breidablik Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Anton Ari Einarsson
- DF: Ásgeir Helgi Orrason, Arnor Gauti Jonsson, Viktor Orn Margeirsson, David Ingvarsson
- MF: Ivar Orn Arnason, Viktor Karl Einarsson, Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson, Anton Logi Ludviksson
- FW: Dagur Orn Fjeldsted, Arnar Bjarki Gunnleifsson
Breidablik will likely line up in their familiar 4-2-3-1, with Anton Ari Einarsson behind a back four that has been solid enough in recent weeks. Ásgeir Helgi Orrason has been active in buildup from the left side of defense, contributing 60 passes in the last tracked match. Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson is the name to watch — he scored against Akranes and brings the kind of directness that Keflavik’s wide defenders will struggle to contain. Dagur Orn Fjeldsted, despite modest shot numbers, is involved in chance creation through movement and link play. Ivar Orn Arnason anchors the midfield and picks up yellow cards, which is worth monitoring if Keflavik try to draw fouls in dangerous areas.
Keflavik Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Asgeir Orri Magnusson
- DF: David Helgi Aronsson, marin brigic, Anton Kralj, Asgeir Pall Magnusson
- MF: Þorlákur Breki Þórarinsson Baxter, Sindri Snær Magnússon, Muhamed Alghoul, Eidur Orri Ragnarsson
- FW: Stefan Alexander Ljubicic, A. Conteh
Keflavik’s 3-1-4-2 shape requires their wide midfielders to cover huge amounts of ground, and that becomes a problem when facing Breidablik’s width. Goalkeeper Asgeir Orri Magnusson made three saves in the last match and will be busy again. Marin Brigic has been solid defensively with 74 passes and 67 accurate — one of the more composed figures at the back. Up top, Ljubicic and A. Conteh form the strike partnership. Conteh is a live wire — three shots, four free kicks won, and three offsides in one match shows a forward who is constantly trying to get in behind. He drew a yellow card too, which tells you something about how defenders respond to him. If Keflavik get anything from this match, those two will be the reason.
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Keflavik. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Breidablik are in the better shape of these two teams by some distance right now. Three wins from three in the past month, strong home support, and a forward line that has shown it can score in bunches. Keflavik have had over a week between competitive matches, their defensive record away from home is shaky, and their best result in this period came against a struggling Thor Akureyri side.
The 0-0 earlier this season is the main reason for any hesitation. Keflavik can park defensively and absorb pressure when they are well-organized. But Breidablik at Kópavogsvöllur, with form this strong, is a different proposition. We think Breidablik win this one without conceding. The “Breidablik to Win to Nil” market at a price around 2.10-2.20 (depending on the book) offers real value given how limited Keflavik look going forward. Under 2.5 goals is a secondary lean, maybe combined with the clean sheet angle for those who want a consolidated bet.
