Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction: 28.12.2025 Serie A 2025/2026

The Serie A campaign resumes at the iconic Stadio Renato Dall’Ara as Bologna host Sassuolo in a clash that could carry European qualification implications. While both teams come into the match on contrasting runs of form, there is an intriguing tactical subplot; both managers—Vincenzo Italiano for Bologna and Fabio Grosso for Sassuolo—have favoured a fluid 4-2-3-1 system throughout their latest fixtures. It’s a contest shaping up to be a test of consistency versus potential, as Bologna look to solidify their top-six standing against a Sassuolo side clawing to climb the table after a rocky month.

Two players will surely command attention in this fixture. For Bologna, Federico Bernardeschi, with 2 goals in his last 4 appearances, injects creativity and unpredictability from wide positions—exactly the sort of form that can tip close matches. On the Sassuolo side, the lively Armand Lauriente, having contributed with both a goal and assist in recent outings, remains a perpetual nuisance for opposition fullbacks with his direct running and eye for a final ball.

The “hot stat”? Bologna have notched a 50% win rate across their last 8 matches, while Sassuolo have managed just a single win in their last 5—a trend that might well shape the tone for this contest.

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Bologna vs Sassuolo prediction

With momentum and home advantage firmly in their favour, Bologna are rightly installed as favourites to take all three points. Their recent performances, including a four-goal thriller to see off Inter, signal an attacking verve not seen with such regularity in previous seasons. Backing Bologna to win looks the safest play, especially as Sassuolo have struggled for both rhythm and resilience away from home.

Tactically, expect Bologna to exercise patience in possession—their pass accuracy over the last five matches sits at an impressive 66%, compared to Sassuolo’s 49%. This emphasis on control has also delivered a flurry of corners (22 over five games) and high ball retention in midfield, led by the likes of Nikola Moro and Lewis Ferguson. Conversely, Sassuolo’s style has been more direct, looking to spring counters through Armand Lauriente and Ismael Kone, but their lower shot output and higher foul count (49 fouls in five matches) point to discipline issues that could cost them in key moments.

Both sides have a tendency to let matches open up: Bologna recently shipped two goals without reply to Napoli but scored four against Inter; Sassuolo, meanwhile, are perpetual wildcards. However, Bologna’s greater solidity in midfield and slightly sharper attacking unit tip the scale in their favour.

Team Analysis

Bologna’s recent run has been defined by adventure and resilience. Their dramatic 4-3 win over Inter showcased their ability to go blow-for-blow with elite opposition, while a gritty 2-1 victory against Celta Vigo hinted at newfound defensive steel. Recent setbacks—a narrow 0-1 defeat to Juventus and a 0-2 reverse against Napoli—underscore the challenge of balancing attack and defence, but Vincenzo Italiano’s men have shown the sort of flexible approach needed to grind out points. The emergence of Bernardeschi as a match-winner, along with the defensive presence of Juan Miranda and Jhon Lucumi, offers balance across the lines.

Sassuolo, on the other hand, have been more erratic; a 3-1 success over Fiorentina stands out, but draws with Milan and Pisa and a disappointing home loss to Torino reveal a side still chasing consistency. Fabio Grosso has leaned heavily on Armand Lauriente and Ismael Kone for creative spark, while the defence—anchored by Sebastian Walukiewicz—is solid but prone to lapses, as evidenced by recent defeats and a high total-fouls count. Sassuolo’s pressing game can unsettle, but against a possession-oriented Bologna, risks leaving them exposed on the counter.

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🚨Read our full Bologna vs Sassuolo stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bologna the favourite

• Moneyline Bologna 1.75 | Sassuolo 4.70
• Draw 3.65
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.88 | Under 2.5 1.93
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.71 | No 2.04

Considering Bologna’s superior home form, their heightened attacking threat, and Sassuolo’s defensive erraticism, the odds make a good deal of sense. The strong lean towards Bologna reflects their recent 50% win ratio, coupled with Sassuolo’s meagre single win in five. The value for both teams to score also appears justified, as both have a penchant for high-scoring, back-and-forth encounters. Over 2.5 goals is well within reason, given the open approach by both managers and the attacking talent on show.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Bologna possible starting eleven

Bologna should line up in their now-customary 4-2-3-1, with Ravaglia between the sticks and Miranda and Holm set to provide width and overlapping support. Bernardeschi starts on the left, with Orsolini cutting in from the right. Odgaard is likely to spearhead the attack given his recent form, while Pobega’s work rate in midfield gives the team both bite and distribution. Bernardeschi is a particular player to watch, as his technical quality and recent decisiveness could be pivotal against a leaky Sassuolo defence.

Sassuolo possible starting eleven

Sassuolo are also likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1. Murić anchors the defence, with Walukiewicz and Muharemovic the central pairing and Doig offering drive from left-back. In midfield, veteran Matić sits deep, with Kone tasked with box-to-box duties. Lauriente and Volpato offer pace and craft behind Pinamonti, who leads the line. Lauriente’s influence out wide could cause problems for Bologna, especially on the counter, but Sassuolo’s frequent disciplinary issues might prove costly.

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My take on the Match

Given the available data, match context, and tactical nuances, my pick is for Bologna to edge out a competitive, entertaining affair—think a 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline. Bologna’s home form, depth in attacking roles, and overall better cohesion provide the edge, but expect Sassuolo’s forwards to craft chances—this is unlikely to be a defensive stalemate. For the neutrals, goals and entertainment beckon, but the smart money stays with the home side to keep their European hopes on track.

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