Sofia Quijada
La Liga’s closing stages often present matches with plenty at stake and unpredictable energy. Alavés welcomes Rayo Vallecano to Estadio de Mendizorroza, with both teams eager to finish strong. The home side recently toppled Real Oviedo and even pulled off a stunning win against Barcelona—clear signs of a late resurgence. For Rayo Vallecano, steady form and a punchy attack have kept them on the edge of European places. The midfield battle, featuring Antonio Blanco’s engine for Alavés and Rayo’s playmaker Unai López, promises intensity and tactical intrigue. “Hot stat”: Rayo Vallecano remain undefeated in their last 8 matches (5 wins, 3 draws), showing impressive late-season steel.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2025/26, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
We predict a tightly contested match, with the best value on a double chance for Rayo Vallecano or draw. Rayo’s recent form is superior: no losses in eight games, with a balanced attack led by Alexandre Zurawski and Sergio Camello. Alavés struggles for consistency but has a solid home record and defensive structure. The home side’s formation (5-3-2) sacrifices attacking width for stability, which often leads to low-scoring affairs. Rayo’s 4-2-3-1 provides more control in midfield and frequent overlapping runs from the fullbacks.
Both teams play physically: Alavés averages nearly 14 fouls per five matches, Rayo 12. Both rack up yellows at a similar rate. Alavés’s passing is less precise (68% accuracy), suggesting more turnovers and defensive transitions. Rayo’s 83% pass accuracy points to better retention and control, vital for dictating the game’s tempo. Expect a match where Rayo seeks possession dominance and Alavés looks to exploit transitions and set pieces. This dynamic, combined with both teams’ conservative recent goal output, points to a draw or narrow Rayo edge.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Draw or Rayo Vallecano (Double Chance) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Alavés’ previous matches show a side battling for every point. Their latest result, a 1-0 victory over Real Oviedo, saw them control possession but create limited chances. Toni Martínez netted decisively, and the team showed defensive grit. Prior to that, an upset 1-0 win against Barcelona highlighted their ability to frustrate stronger teams with disciplined lines and swift counters. Set-piece threat remains a key weapon, with Rebbach and Blanco pulling strings from midfield. However, their attacking output is inconsistent, and reliance on Martínez for goals is a vulnerability.
Rayo Vallecano’s recent streak is more convincing. Their 2-0 win over Villarreal stands out: Zurawski and Camello combined well up front, while the midfield marshaled by Unai López and Gumbau kept the ball moving efficiently. Rayo’s pressing game forced turnovers and opened up transition opportunities, evidenced by a high shot count (71 in last five matches). Their last three draws show some attacking inefficiency but a robust defensive shape. They spread goals around the squad, limiting predictability and making them harder to shut down.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Alavés | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 50 | 71 |
| Free kicks | 11 | 7 |
| Corner kicks | 24 | 18 |
| Total fouls | 68 | 83 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 68 | 83 |
| Interceptions | 38 | 52 |
| Offsides | 11 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Alavés the favourite
- Moneyline Alavés 2.58 | Rayo Vallecano 2.98
- Draw 3.43
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.35 | Under 2.5 1.55
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.91 | No 1.87
Bookmakers rate Alavés as slight favourites, mostly due to home advantage and a recent win against Barcelona. Still, punters should note Rayo’s stronger form and higher pass accuracy. Odds on the draw remain attractive, with under 2.5 goals providing strong value given both teams’ defensive strengths and conservative playing styles. Both teams to score markets are finely balanced, but the numbers suggest a low-scoring, one-sided goal outcome is likely.
Possible Starting Lineups
Alavés possible starting eleven
- GK: Antonio Sivera
- DF: Nahuel Tenaglia, Victor Parada, Jonny Otto, Youssef Enriquez, Ville Koski
- MF: Antonio Blanco, Jon Guridi, Abderrahmane Rebbach
- FW: Toni Martínez, Angel Pérez Hidalgo
Quique Sánchez Flores keeps faith in a 5-3-2, banking on defensive security and efficient transitions. Sivera is a stable presence in goal, while Martínez carries the main attacking threat (4 goals in last 5). Rebbach’s creativity and Blanco’s ball-winning are vital. Watch for Rebbach’s set-piece deliveries and Martínez’s movement in the final third.
Rayo Vallecano possible starting eleven
- GK: Augusto Batalla
- DF: Ivan Balliu, Pathé Ciss, Florian Lejeune, Pep Chavarria
- MF: Óscar Valentín, Unai López, Gerard Gumbau, Jorge De Frutos
- FW: Alexandre Zurawski, Sergio Camello
Coach Iñigo Pérez prefers a 4-2-3-1, using Batalla’s distribution from the back and Lejeune’s leadership. Zurawski and Camello form a dynamic forward duo, supported by versatile midfielders like Gumbau and Valentín. Expect Rayo to build through short passes and create width with overlapping fullbacks.
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Rayo Vallecano. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a low-scoring battle, with Rayo Vallecano’s superior form and technical edge earning them at least a point. Alavés’ home record and recent upset over Barcelona warn against underestimating their defensive resolve. Expect Rayo’s midfield control to limit Alavés’ chances, and one moment of quality from Zurawski or Camello could decide it. A draw or away win appears the most probable outcome, with under 2.5 goals the safest bet.
