Alex MacQuoid
Ajax and Olympiacos meet again at the Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam, this time in a July friendly that carries a bit more weight than the scoreline will suggest. These two sides faced each other just months ago in the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 league phase, where Olympiacos came away with a 2-1 win, and they also clashed in a friendly back in July 2024, when Ajax edged it 1-0. Two meetings, two different winners. Something has to give on July 18.
The interesting angle here is Ajax’s form. Under coach Míchel, the Dutch side have looked inconsistent across their last handful of matches, picking up only one win from three games in the past 30 days. Their most recent outing ended in a 1-1 draw with Bochum, and before that they fell 1-3 to Panathinaikos at home. Olympiacos, managed by José Luis Mendilibar, arrive in better shape, winning two of their last three, including a 3-1 victory over Fortuna Sittard in their most recent game.
Two players to watch: Oscar Gloukh for Ajax, who leads the team in shot attempts across the last five matches with nine total shots and has chipped in with an assist, showing he is the most creative presence in the final third. On the Olympiacos side, keep an eye on whoever Mendilibar deploys in the pressing roles of his 4-3-3 – the Greek side’s high-energy approach caused Ajax problems in the Champions League encounter, and that pattern is likely to repeat.
Hot stat: Ajax have scored just three goals across their last five matches, while managing 48 total shots. That is a strikingly poor conversion rate, and it points to a team that is creating opportunities but badly lacking a clinical edge in front of goal.
| 🏆 Tournament: | International Club Friendly 2026, July Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam |
| 🗓️ Date: | 18.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
Ajax vs Olympiacos Prediction
Olympiacos are the better-performing side right now. Their 67% win rate over the last 30 days against Ajax’s 33% is a meaningful gap, especially when you factor in that Ajax have been struggling to finish chances. The Greek side’s 4-3-3 presses high and disrupts buildup play, which is exactly the kind of system that has given Ajax trouble. Mendilibar’s teams tend to be well-organized without the ball and direct when they win it back, and Ajax’s midfield has looked loose enough to be exploited.
Ajax’s style under Míchel has involved a lot of possession through the middle – players like Youri Baas and Davy Klaassen accumulate passes but the team has a tendency to draw fouls and give away free kicks in dangerous areas rather than maintaining clean control. Ajax committed 35 fouls across their last five matches, which hands set-piece opportunities to opponents. Olympiacos, who showed in the Champions League that they can punish Ajax on transitions, will fancy exploiting exactly this.
We think an Olympiacos win or at worst a draw is the most logical outcome. The value is on the visitors. Ajax’s conversion issues and defensive lapses against pressing sides make them vulnerable, and this is not a straightforward home win just because it is at the Johan Cruijff Arena.
- Best bet: Olympiacos win or draw (double chance)
- Alternative: Under 2.5 goals, given Ajax’s poor finishing and Olympiacos’s defensive solidity
- Value pick: Olympiacos to score first
Ajax’s passing accuracy sits at roughly 89% (1381 accurate out of 1557), which looks impressive on paper but has not translated into goals. The team is comfortable on the ball but passive in the final third. Olympiacos, without detailed shot data available, have nonetheless shown in their recent wins that they can be direct and effective. Mendilibar’s record with tactically disciplined sides is strong, and honestly, Ajax look like a team still finding their identity under a relatively new coaching setup.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Olympiacos to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Ajax come into this match having played three games over the past 30 days, winning one, drawing one, and losing one. Their most recent match, a 1-1 draw with Bochum, showed the same problem that has defined their pre-season: plenty of ball, not enough end product. Before that, they beat AEK Larnaca 1-0 in what was a narrow and unconvincing win, and before that came the 1-3 defeat at home to Panathinaikos – a result that will have stung. Across their five most recent matches, they have managed 48 shots for just three goals. Don-Angelo Konadu is the only outfield player with a goal to his name from this stretch. The attack looks blunt. Aaron Bouwman has been reliable at the back with 197 passes and four interceptions, and Youri Baas has been steady in possession, but the link between midfield and attack is not working. Míchel will need more from his forward line if Ajax are to trouble Olympiacos here.
Olympiacos arrive on the back of a strong run. Their most recent fixture, a 3-1 win over Fortuna Sittard, was their most convincing result of the pre-season and showed they have the attacking quality to punish teams that leave space. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Leuven – a slight blip, but nothing alarming given the context of friendly football. Their win over Rakow (2-1) and a draw with AEK Athens (1-1) round out a five-match sequence that shows consistency across different types of opponents. The 1-0 win over Panathinaikos earlier in the year also demonstrated they can grind out results when needed. Mendilibar’s side have been active across 25 matches this year, winning 12 of them, which is a 48% win rate. They are more reliable than Ajax right now, and their 4-3-3 setup gives them both defensive structure and the ability to break quickly.
🚨Check out our dedicated Ajax vs Olympiacos stats page for more info.
Possible Starting Lineups
Ajax possible starting eleven
- GK: Maarten Paes
- DF: Aaron Bouwman, Youri Baas, Lucas Oliveira Rosa, Owen Wijndal
- MF: Davy Klaassen, Youri Regeer, Oscar Gloukh
- FW: Mika Godts, Don-Angelo Konadu, Steven Berghuis
Míchel has been rotating heavily but these are the players who have featured most consistently across the last five matches. A 4-3-3 or 4-4-2 shape is most likely, with the 4-4-2 having been the most frequently used formation in recent games. Oscar Gloukh is the player to watch in the Ajax midfield, combining nine shots with an assist and showing the most creative intent. Maarten Paes has been reliable in goal with four saves across three appearances. Anton Gaaei could come in at right back if Bouwman is rotated. Caio Henrique, who scored in a recent outing, is another option from the bench who could change the game if Ajax need a goal.
Based on the team’s typical approach under Mendilibar and the 4-3-3 formation identified as their preferred setup in the last five fixtures, expect a high-pressing structure with three forwards and a compact midfield trio. Mendilibar historically relies on experienced squad players who understand his system, and with five matches already played this pre-season, the likely starters will be those who have been fit and available throughout the tour.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1,000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Olympiacos. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Ajax are a team with structural problems right now. Forty-eight shots for three goals across five matches is not a pre-season blip – it is a systemic issue in how the attack is connecting, and Olympiacos’s press will make things even harder for them to build rhythm. The Greek side have looked sharper, more direct, and more clinical in their recent outings, and Mendilibar has a strong record of setting up teams to exploit exactly the kind of passive, possession-heavy sides that Ajax resemble at the moment.
We think this ends either as an Olympiacos win or a low-scoring draw. The 3-1 scoreline in their last match against Fortuna Sittard shows Olympiacos can score goals when the opportunity presents itself, and Ajax’s defensive line has been exposed by pressing teams this pre-season. Maybe Ajax nick a late goal through Gloukh or Konadu, but banking on them to control this match feels like wishful thinking. Our call is Olympiacos to win, with under 2.5 goals the safest market on the board.
