Levi Rothermund
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Werder Bremen host a struggling Paderborn side off the back of a wild few weeks. Bremen were thumped 0-7 away at Twente barely two weeks ago, then bounced back with a share of the points against Dortmund. Paderborn, meanwhile, sit second from bottom and have scored in barely half their last five outings. There’s an odd little quirk here too: these clubs have met only once competitively since 2024, a narrow 1-0 Bremen win in the DFB Pokal, so recent history offers almost nothing to lean on.
Keep an eye on Niclas Füllkrug up top for Bremen, he’s scored twice in his last two appearances and remains the focal point of their attack. For Paderborn, Santiago Castaneda has been their most creative outlet lately, carrying the bulk of their shot and set-piece responsibility. Both deserve attention even if the supporting cast around them looks shaky.
Hot stat: Werder conceded seven goals in a single away match at Twente this season, the heaviest defeat of any club involved in this fixture across the sampled games.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Weser-Stadion, Bremen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn prediction
We’re leaning Werder Bremen here, and honestly the gap in quality looks wider than the table suggests. Bremen sit 7th with 8 points from five games, Paderborn are 15th with just 4. Paderborn have managed only three goals across their last five matches in all competitions, a scoring rate that simply won’t trouble a Bremen side playing at home.
Style-wise, Paderborn rack up more shots and corners per game (13 corners in their last five versus Bremen’s five) but convert little of it into end product. Bremen have picked up more fouls and cards recently (20 fouls, 3 yellows versus 16 fouls, 1 yellow for Paderborn), which hints at a more physical home approach that could disrupt Paderborn’s rhythm early. That physicality, paired with home comfort, should be enough to see Bremen through, maybe not comfortably, but enough.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Werder Bremen -1 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Werder Bremen’s last match ended 2-2 against Dortmund, a result that actually flatters them given how porous they’ve looked recently. Before that it was the 0-7 collapse at Twente, a win over Augsburg, a draw with Köln, and a win over Leipzig. The form is streaky, two wins, two draws and a heavy loss in their last five, and the Dortmund draw at least showed some resilience after the Twente horror show. In our preview of Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen we backed Dortmund to win comfortably, but the 2-2 scoreline means that call went against us. Bremen clearly have more fight in them on the road than that preview gave credit for, which honestly makes their home form here look even more promising.
Paderborn’s last match was a 0-2 loss to Stuttgart, continuing a rough stretch, loss, loss, win, win, loss across their last five. The attack has gone cold, no goals in three of their last five games, and their away form in particular has been shaky all season. In our preview of Paderborn vs Stuttgart we called a Stuttgart win, and the 0-2 result delivered exactly that. Nothing in Paderborn’s recent displays suggests they travel to Bremen with any extra confidence.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Werder Bremen | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Werder Bremen vs Paderborn stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Werder Bremen the favourite
- Moneyline Werder Bremen 1.75 | Paderborn 4.22
- Draw 4.37
Pinnacle’s numbers, usually the sharpest in the market, price Bremen around 53% to win once margin is stripped out, with Paderborn given roughly 23% and the draw sitting close behind. That lines up with what the form and table positions suggest, Bremen aren’t world-beaters right now but they’re clearly the stronger side on paper, and bookmakers agree without much hesitation.
Paderborn. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Werder Bremen possible starting eleven
- GK: Karl Hein
- DF: Marco Friedl, Niklas Stark, Amos Pieper
- MF: Mitchell Weiser, Iván San José Cantalejo, Youri Regeer, Ludovit Reis, Arthur Augusto De Matos Soares
- FW: Niclas Füllkrug, Marco Grüll
Bremen look set to stick with their 3-5-2 shape that’s featured in five straight matches. Füllkrug remains the main scoring threat, while Grüll’s three assists in his last two outings make him worth watching off the left. Weiser’s experience at wing-back should give Bremen extra width against a Paderborn side that likes to sit narrow.
Paderborn possible starting eleven
- GK: Nahuel Noll
- DF: Tjark Scheller, Felix Götze, Jano Ter-Horst
- MF: Laurin Curda, Mattes Hansen, Raphael Obermair, Jonah Sticker
- AM: Santiago Castaneda, Gabriel Vidović
- FW: Steffen Tigges
Paderborn’s 3-4-2-1 relies heavily on Castaneda and Vidović linking play behind Tigges, who’s had limited minutes but still carries goal threat when on the pitch. Noll’s goalkeeping has been steady with six saves across his last two starts, and he’ll likely be tested often here given how one-sided this matchup looks on form.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Werder Bremen. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Bremen take this one, maybe not by a landslide, but comfortably enough. Paderborn have struggled to score against far weaker defenses than Bremen’s, and the home crowd at Weser-Stadion should add extra pressure on a visiting side already low on confidence. Our lean is Bremen to win, the match to go over 2.5 goals, and Paderborn to go scoreless given their recent drought in front of goal. Corners should flow too, Paderborn’s set-piece habit of forcing them combined with Bremen’s attacking width points toward a high count.
