Levi Rothermund
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Paderborn welcome Stuttgart to the Home Deluxe Arena with both clubs sitting awkwardly close in the bottom third of the table. That’s the odd part here. Stuttgart arrive as heavy favourites on the betting markets, yet they’re actually two places below the hosts in the standings right now, three points worse off too. Form and squad depth say one thing, the early-season table says another.
Paderborn have been competitive without being convincing, a side that can grind out points but rarely overwhelms anyone. Stuttgart, under Sebastian Hoeneß, carry far more attacking quality on paper and a squad that’s used to fighting near the top rather than the bottom half. This one has layers worth unpacking before backing either side blindly.
Watch Ermedin Demirović up front for Stuttgart. He’s scored three times in his last five outings and remains the focal point of their attack whenever they push numbers forward. On the other side, Santiago Castaneda has quietly been Paderborn’s most involved attacker, chipping in with a goal and carrying most of the creative load in midfield.
Hot stat: across their last five matches combined, Stuttgart racked up 45 total shots to Paderborn’s 23, almost double the output despite a similar number of matches played. That gap says plenty about where the attacking threat likely sits on Saturday.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
Paderborn vs Stuttgart prediction
We think Stuttgart edge this one, but not by the margin the odds suggest. Paderborn have shown they can score, three goals in their last two outings before this round, and they’re not the kind of side that sits back and absorbs pressure for 90 minutes. Stuttgart’s defense has leaked goals too, conceding in three of their last four Bundesliga matches. Our punters lean toward a Stuttgart win with both teams finding the net, somewhere around a 2-1 or 1-2 final score.
Paderborn foul more per shot taken and have picked up fewer cards recently, just one yellow across their last five fixtures compared to Stuttgart’s two, which hints at a slightly more disciplined if less expansive approach. Stuttgart dominate possession and pass volume heavily, 1683 passes to Paderborn’s 784 over the same stretch, so expect the visitors to control territory even if Paderborn create their moments on the counter.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Stuttgart to win & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Paderborn’s recent run has been a mixed bag, honestly. Two wins and two losses in their last four, no draws, which tells you Kettemann’s side rarely settles for a point, they either win it or lose it. Their most recent match was a tight 1-0 success, a result built on a single clinical moment rather than sustained dominance. Before that they beat Hoffenheim 3-1, showing the attack can click when given space, but they’ve also shipped goals badly against Dortmund and Freiburg without scoring at all. In our preview of Paderborn vs Hoffenheim we backed the visitors to keep a clean sheet and win low-scoring, and the 3-1 result went firmly against that call.
Stuttgart look sharper on the whole, three wins from their last five with only two defeats, and their underlying numbers back that up. Their latest outing produced a 5-0 win, a rout that padded the confidence but came against lighter opposition than what they’ll face in the league. Before that, a 3-0 win and a tight 0-1 victory over Dortmund show they can win games both comfortably and ugly. In our preview of Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund we called Dortmund to win on the road, and the 0-1 scoreline delivered exactly that outcome.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two clubs have no recent competitive meetings on record before this fixture, so there’s no head-to-head trend to lean on here.
🚨Check out our dedicated Paderborn vs Stuttgart stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Stuttgart the favourite
- Moneyline Paderborn 5.00 | Stuttgart 1.57
- Draw 4.75
The market has Stuttgart around 60% to win this one, with Paderborn given just 19% and the draw sitting at 20%. That gap feels a touch wide given Paderborn’s recent scoring form at home, but bookmakers clearly trust Stuttgart’s squad quality over a small sample of league results. We’d argue there’s more value backing goals in this match than simply following the heavy favourite price.
Possible Starting Lineups
Paderborn possible starting eleven
- GK: Nahuel Noll
- DF: Tjark Scheller, Jano Ter-Horst, Laurin Curda
- MF: Santiago Castaneda, Laurin Ulrich, Mattes Hansen, Raphael Obermair
- FW: Stefano Marino, Marvin Pieringer, Steffen Tigges
Kettemann tends to stick with his 3-4-2-1 shape and the squad minutes back that up. Noll has started every recent match in goal, while Scheller and Ter-Horst anchor the back three with the most playing time among the defenders. Castaneda is the one to watch going forward, he’s the only outfield player with a goal across his last two appearances and tends to drift centrally to link play with Marino and Pieringer ahead of him.
Stuttgart possible starting eleven
- GK: Fabian Bredlow
- DF: Jeffrey Chabot, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Finn Jeltsch
- MF: Grischa Prömel, Angelo Stiller, Bilal El Khannouss, Chris Führich
- FW: Ermedin Demirović, Deniz Undav, Dženan Pejčinović
Hoeneß mirrors the 3-4-2-1 setup too, and Bredlow’s minutes make him the clear starting keeper over Funk. Stiller remains the passing engine in midfield, over 200 passes attempted across his recent appearances, while Demirović’s three goals in five games make him the obvious threat up top. Führich’s wide involvement gives the side width that Paderborn’s back three will need to track carefully.
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Stuttgart. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We’re backing Stuttgart to come away with the win, but we don’t expect it to be one-sided. Paderborn have scored in most of their recent matches and their home form, two wins in their last four, suggests they won’t just roll over. Stuttgart’s attacking numbers, nearly double the shots and passes of their hosts over the last five games, should be enough to see them through, maybe 2-1 or 2-2 if Paderborn find an early goal. Both teams to score feels like the smarter angle here rather than just trusting the short price on Stuttgart alone.
