Wales (w) vs Italy (w) Prediction: 03.06.2025 UEFA Women's Nations League

The final matchday of League A Group A4 in the UEFA Women’s Nations League brings us a telling clash between Wales (w) and Italy (w), set in the atmospheric Brann Stadion. While Italy still harbour hopes of progressing, Wales aim to restore pride and disrupt the hierarchy. What lends additional intrigue to this fixture is both sides’ contrasting fortunes in the group, alongside Italy’s pressing need for three points to potentially leapfrog up the standings.

Key players to keep a particularly close eye on include Italy’s versatile forward, Barbara Bonansea, who, despite not scoring recently, brings relentless movement and flair to Italy’s attack, as well as Wales’ resolute defender Hayley Ladd, whose reading of the game and distribution out from the back are vital to their build-up. Their respective performances could be pivotal in swinging the balance of this contest. A “hot stat” emerges from Italy’s comprehensive 3-0 win over Denmark earlier: a display of cohesive attacking able to break down a stubborn defence proof their potency shouldn’t be underestimated whatever their recent record.

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Wales (w) vs Italy (w) prediction

Given Italy’s superior form across the group and a squad studded with continental experience, the most logical prediction is for Italy (w) to secure all three points. Their victory over Denmark revealed new levels of attacking efficiency, and although defensive lapses have cost them at times, Wales have yet to register a win in this year’s campaign and have struggled to threaten going forward an average of just 0.6 goals per match in the group, and a solitary goal in each of their draws.

In terms of style, Wales tend to favour a cautious approach, reflected in their modest ball possession numbers and disciplined defensive structure. However, their 3-5-2 shape can become stretched against aggressive wide players a facet Italy’s 4-3-3 system is well-equipped to exploit. Notably, both sides have shown restraint in disciplinary matters, with Wales yet to pick up a single yellow, but Italy’s slight edge in ball retention and shot generation (averaging 12 shots per match to Wales’ 10) could tip the encounter their way. Expect a competitive duel in midfield but, ultimately, Italy’s greater efficiency in the final third makes them the clear favourites.

Team Analysis

Wales (w) recent games:

Wales’ campaign has been a tough watch for supporters. Most recently, they suffered a 0-1 home defeat to Denmark a result reflecting their general struggles in the group. In that match, Wales managed 10 total shots and 474 passes but failed to convert possession into meaningful chances, with disciplined defending only breached late on. Welsh performances have been notable for defensive organisation, yet attacking shortcomings have left them winless after five outings, with only three goals scored and minimal attacking contributions from their midfield.

Italy (w) recent games:

Italy arrive off the back of a goalless draw with group leaders Sweden no mean feat given the Swedes’ attacking pedigree. They produced 12 shots and completed 432 passes with 61 percent accuracy, but both sides’ goalkeepers were largely untested. Previously, a 3-0 drubbing of Denmark highlighted Italy’s capability when moving the ball quickly through midfield and exploiting space in wide areas. Manager Milena Bertolini has rotated her squad in search of attacking consistency, and the Azzurre are more likely to dictate possession and create chances this time.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Wales (w) vs Italy (w) stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Italy (w) the favourite

• Moneyline Wales (w) 6.77 | Italy (w) 1.48
• Draw 4.20
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.38 | Under 2.5 1.62
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.70 | No 1.48

The odds accurately capture Italy’s status as favourites. Italy’s squad depth, technical proficiency, and experience at this level make the 1.48 available fair, with Wales’ continued scoring issues justifying their hefty odds. Draw backers will note Italy’s inconsistent finishing, yet on balance, the gulf in quality and tactical flexibility should be enough for a routine away win.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Wales (w) possible starting eleven

Anticipating a tried-and-tested 3-5-2 from Jeff Strasser, Wales will look for defensive solidity and compactness, trusting experienced operators like Fishlock and Ingle to keep the ball moving. Hayley Ladd will be crucial in marshalling the defence, while Carrie Jones’ energy offers a rare attacking spark. Don’t be surprised if the fullbacks drop deep to nullify Italy’s wingers.

Italy (w) possible starting eleven

Milena Bertolini has found success with a dynamic 4-3-3, employing fullbacks who push on and link play. Bonansea and Girelli provide attacking threat and movement, combining with midfielders like Giugliano pulling strings. Watch for Linari’s composed distribution in building attacks from deep.

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The Verdict

All signs point to Italy (w) claiming victory here. We expect a professional and patient performance, with the Azzurre’s tactical flexibility and technical superiority shining through. Should Wales stay compact and disciplined, it may take time to break the deadlock, but once Italy find their stride, the chances will flow. Expect the deeper squad and creative verve of Bonansea and Girelli to make the critical difference predicting a 2-0 result in Italy’s favour.

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