Sofia Quijada
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Villarreal sit fourteenth after a rough opening block of fixtures, one win from six league games, while Levante arrive just a place below them with an almost identical points tally. Both clubs have leaked goals defensively this season, yet history between them is lopsided: Villarreal have won all three of the last meetings, scoring seven and conceding just once. That imbalance sits at the heart of our read on this fixture.
Nicolas Pépé carries Villarreal’s cutting edge right now, twelve shots and a goal across five appearances, the most dangerous attacking figure in the squad by output. For Levante, Roger Brugué has been the standout, three goals in four matches, giving Luís Castro’s side a genuine threat on the counter even away from home.
Hot stat: Villarreal have scored seven goals against Levante across the last three meetings while conceding only once, a head-to-head record that heavily favors the hosts on paper.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal |
| 🗓️ Date: | 20.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Villarreal vs Levante prediction
We lean toward Villarreal on the win here, but not by a wide margin. Their home shot volume, 79 attempts across the last five matches against Levante’s 54, points to control of the ball and territory, and the historical head-to-head record adds confidence. Perhaps the safer angle, though, is Villarreal Draw No Bet, since Iñigo Pérez’s side has drawn two of its last six and lost four, a defense that has been breachable all month.
Villarreal’s 4-4-2 generates width through Cardona and Freeman on the flanks, feeding Pépé and Moreno up top, while their 49 fouls and 8 yellow cards over five games show a physical, sometimes reckless edge in midfield battles. Levante’s 4-2-3-1 is tidier on the ball in patches but has committed 43 fouls in the same span with fewer cards, suggesting a side that fouls smart rather than desperate. Expect a scrappy midfield with cards likely before either keeper is truly tested.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Villarreal Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Villarreal’s form line reads one win and four losses across their last five outings, a stretch that includes a 1-2 defeat to Real Betis and a 2-3 loss to Deportivo La Coruna, both games where they conceded late. Their most recent result, a 3-1 win over Malaga, offers some reassurance, Pépé and Moreno both contributed to a display that finally matched the underlying shot numbers with a result. In our preview of Malaga vs Villarreal we backed a narrow Villarreal win via Draw No Bet, and the 3-1 scoreline delivered the victory, even if the margin ran wider than we expected.
Levante’s last five yield one win, two draws and two losses, a mixed run capped by a 2-4 defeat away at Barcelona where they were simply outclassed. The more telling result before that was a 5-2 win over Real Betis, proof that Brugué and this attack can hurt anyone on their day, followed by a goalless draw against Malaga that showed the flip side, a defense that can also shut games down. Our team previewed Levante vs Athletic Bilbao and called Athletic to control that game on the back of Levante’s shaky home defense, though that exact fixture’s result isn’t in our data here to confirm the call.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Villarreal | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 7 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Villarreal vs Levante stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Villarreal the favourite
- Moneyline Villarreal 1.50 | Levante 5.70
- Draw 4.60
The market puts Villarreal clearly ahead, roughly 63% implied probability against Levante’s 17%, a gap wider than the underlying stats justify given both sides’ defensive issues this season. We see value fading a heavy Villarreal price and instead targeting goals markets, since neither defense has shown it can keep a clean sheet consistently.
Possible Starting Lineups
Villarreal possible starting eleven
- GK: Péter Gulácsi
- DF: Renato Veiga, Alex Freeman, Pau Navarro, Sergi Cardona
- MF: Pape Gueye, Santi Comesaña, Nathan-Dylan Saliba, Tajon Buchanan
- FW: Nicolas Pépé, Gerard Moreno
Iñigo Pérez sticks with the 4-4-2 that has produced the highest shot volume in the squad this season. Gueye and Comesaña anchor the midfield with the most passes among their teammates, while Pépé’s shot count makes him the player defenders must track closest up top.
Levante possible starting eleven
- GK: Mathew Ryan
- DF: Aïssa Mandi, Adrián de la Fuente Barquilla, Manu Sánchez, Jeremy Toljan
- MF: Oriol Rey, Jon Ander Olasagasti
- FW: Enzo Bardeli, Iván Romero, Thiago Cruz Fernandez, Roger Brugué
Luís Castro’s 4-2-3-1 leans on Rey and Olasagasti to screen the back four, freeing Bardeli and Romero to support Brugué, the club’s sharpest finisher this term. Mandi remains the most experienced figure at the back and the one Villarreal’s attack will look to isolate.
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Villarreal. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Villarreal edge this one, most likely by a single goal, backed by home shot dominance and a clean head-to-head sweep over the last three meetings. Levante’s attack, led by Brugué, should find the net at least once given how often Villarreal’s defense has been breached this month, so both teams to score reads as the sharper side bet alongside the win. To be honest, a flat Villarreal moneyline bet at current prices looks short for a side that has lost four of its last six, so Draw No Bet or a BTTS combo protects better value while still following the stats toward the home side.
