Sofia Quijada
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Levante host Athletic Bilbao at the Ciudad de Valencia with both sides sitting in the bottom half of the table after five rounds, though the Basque club arrives with clearly the better recent head-to-head record. Athletic won both of last season’s meetings by an aggregate of 6-2, and Levante have failed to keep a clean sheet at home in four of their last five matches. Luís Castro’s men also just shipped four goals to Barcelona, which raises real questions about how they cope with a side that averages 84% pass accuracy and controls games through midfield.
Roger Brugué deserves attention for Levante, he has scored three goals in his last four appearances and remains their sharpest outlet on the counter. For Athletic, Oihan Sancet is the man pulling strings behind the front line, he has produced 15 shots and a goal across his last five outings and links the midfield to the attack better than anyone else in Terzic’s squad.
Hot stat: Levante’s 5-2 demolition of Real Betis two matches ago is the standout number from either camp’s recent form, proof that this attack can hurt anyone when it clicks, but the very next match saw them concede four to Barcelona, a swing that says everything about their inconsistency.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:30 CEST |
Levante vs Athletic Bilbao prediction
We predict Athletic Bilbao to win this one. Bookmakers already price them as clear favourites at 44% implied probability, and the underlying numbers back that view: Athletic complete more passes per match (2261 vs 1761 over the last five games), hold a sizeable corner advantage (32 vs 18) and have scored in every one of their last five meetings with this opponent. Levante’s home form, just one win in five, leaves them exposed against a side built to control possession.
Style-wise, Athletic pick up more cards, 10 yellows and a red across five matches against Levante’s five yellows, which points to a more physical, higher-tempo approach that could open up space in transition. Levante foul at a similar rate (50 vs 53 fouls) but with far less end product from set pieces, so their route back into the game likely runs through pace on the counter rather than a war of attrition in midfield.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Athletic Bilbao win & BTTS Yes |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Levante’s last match summed up their season, a 2-4 home defeat to Barcelona in which they matched the champions for spells but folded defensively late on. In our preview of Levante vs Barcelona we backed Barcelona to win comfortably and pointed punters toward the goals and handicap markets over a straight moneyline bet, and the 2-4 scoreline delivered exactly that outcome. Before that they drew 0-0 with Malaga and thrashed Real Betis 5-2, so this is a team capable of big swings in either direction rather than steady consistency.
Athletic Bilbao’s most recent outing was a 1-1 draw against Elche, a result that continues a rough patch, just two wins from their last seven matches. Before that they beat Atletico Madrid 3-0 and Celta Vigo 2-0, results that show real quality when their front three fire, sandwiched around a 0-2 loss to Barcelona and a 1-3 defeat to Sevilla that expose defensive lapses on the road. Their away form remains the concern heading into Valencia.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Levante | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 6 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Levante vs Athletic Bilbao stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletic Bilbao the favourite
- Moneyline Levante 3.35 | Athletic Bilbao 2.13
- Draw 3.42
The market gives Athletic roughly a 47% chance of winning once the bookmaker margin is stripped out, against Levante’s 30% and a draw at 29%. That gap lines up with the underlying stats, Athletic dominate possession and set-piece output, and their two prior wins over Levante by an aggregate 6-2 support the price. Perhaps the more interesting angle here is that draw at 3.42, given Levante’s habit of grinding out stalemates against mid-table sides this season, but our lean stays with the away win.
Possible Starting Lineups
Levante possible starting eleven
- GK: Mathew Ryan
- DF: Manu Sánchez, Aïssa Mandi, Adrián de la Fuente Barquilla, Nacho Pérez Gómez
- MF: Oriol Rey, Jon Ander Olasagasti, Enzo Bardeli, Iván Romero, Thiago Cruz Fernandez
- FW: Roger Brugué
Castro sticks with his usual 4-2-3-1, built around the everyday starters who have played all five recent matches, Mandi and Manu Sánchez anchor the back line while Brugué leads the line on his own after his recent scoring run. Watch Iván Romero for pace on the break against Athletic’s high line.
Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven
- GK: Unai Simon
- DF: Jesus Areso, Aymeric Laporte, Yeray Álvarez, Yuri Berchiche
- MF: Oihan Sancet, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Mikel Jauregizar, Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta, Alex Berenguer
- FW: Iñaki Williams
Terzic keeps the same 4-2-3-1 shape, with Laporte’s experience central to a defense that has to travel and control tempo away from home. Sancet sits just behind Iñaki Williams and remains the player most likely to unlock a stubborn Levante block.
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Levante. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Our team leans toward Athletic Bilbao here, backed by both the passing numbers and the recent head-to-head results. Levante can score, the 5-2 win over Betis proves that, but their defensive record at home this season, conceding in four of five, hands Athletic a route to control the game and take the points. We expect goals at both ends given each side’s scoring rate over their last five matches, with Athletic’s superior corner count (32 to 18) also pointing toward a set-piece edge worth backing in the corners market.
