Liam Duckstein
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Bottom club hosts second-bottom at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo on Friday night, and the arithmetic gives this fixture real teeth. A win lifts Udinese out of the drop zone; even three points leave Venezia in it, a quirk that shapes how desperately each side chases the result. The two already met this season, with Udinese winning 2-1 in Venice during the Coppa Italia second round, so a revenge thread runs through this one as well.
The hot stat sits with the hosts: Venezia have failed to score in three straight league games, falling 0-1 to Genoa, 0-2 to Inter and 0-1 to Como. Udinese arrive colder still, winless in five with twelve goals conceded in that run, capped by a 2-5 home collapse against Roma. Keep an eye on Akor Adams, fourteen shots and eight offsides in five matches for Venezia, and on Nicolo Zaniolo, Udinese’s sharpest attacker with a goal and eight shots in under 180 minutes.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season (Italy) |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venice |
| 🗓️ Date: | 06.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:45 CEST |
Venezia vs Udinese prediction
We predict Venezia to win 1-0. The market makes them narrow favourites at roughly 2.23, and the lean makes sense. Udinese have lost four of their last five, conceded twelve goals in that stretch and scored three in reply, numbers that describe a side failing in both boxes. Venezia’s league record is uglier, nine defeats from ten, but their only win came at home against Napoli, and Davide Nicola has spent a career drilling teams to survive exactly this kind of night. Against a defence that just shipped five, one clean strike at the Penzo should settle it.
Style points favour a scrappy contest. Udinese commit 56 fouls across their last five matches against Venezia’s 38, so expect the visitors to break up rhythm and turn this into a fight, with both sides collecting six yellow cards in that span. Passing profiles are nearly identical, 85.1 percent accuracy for the hosts and 84.5 for the visitors, with Udinese slightly busier on the ball at 2469 passes to 2176. Venezia’s thirteen offsides, mostly from Adams running channels, signal direct balls in behind rather than patient build-up. Both teams average under five corners per game, so set pieces and errors will decide a low-event match.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Akor Adams to be caught offside (Yes) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Venezia’s last five matches read one win and four defeats, and the pattern is grim. A 1-3 loss to Atalanta preceded the 1-0 home win over Napoli, the lone bright spot, and since then three consecutive games without a goal. Last time out they fell 0-1 at Como, creating almost nothing against a side in form. In our preview of Como vs Venezia we called a Como win, and the 1-0 result delivered it, even though the -1.5 handicap came up short. Two goals scored in five matches sums up an attack that cannot finish, and no team in Serie A has drawn fewer games than their zero.
Udinese’s slide runs deeper. Five games without a win, four defeats, twelve conceded against three scored. Friday’s 2-5 home defeat to Roma was the low point, a defensive mess despite two goals of their own, and it followed a 0-0 with Parma, a 0-2 loss to Milan, a 0-3 defeat by Lecce and a 1-2 loss to Torino. In our preview of Udinese vs Roma we called a comfortable Roma win, and the 2-5 result delivered it, even if the margin blew past our 2-0 or 3-0 projection. Keinan Davis has ten shots in five games without scoring, and Paolo Zanetti has yet to find a fix.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Udinese hold the recent edge in this pairing. They won 2-1 at the Penzo in this season’s Coppa Italia second round, and the 2024/25 league series split one win apiece on a pair of one-goal scorelines. The table below compares both squads across their last five matches.
| Statistic | Venezia | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 3 |
| Total shots | 66 | 76 |
| Free kicks | 40 | 46 |
| Corner kicks | 21 | 22 |
| Total fouls | 38 | 56 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 85.1 | 84.5 |
| Interceptions | 45 | 40 |
| Offsides | 13 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Venezia vs Udinese stats page for more info.
Udinese. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Venezia the favourite
- Moneyline Venezia 2.23 | Udinese 3.09
- Draw 3.49
Bookmakers price this at 42 percent home, 27 draw and 31 away, and the odds above carry those implied probabilities almost exactly. We buy the home lean. The Penzo has hosted Venezia’s best football this season, the Napoli win above all, while Udinese own the worse defensive numbers of the pair and their confidence looks shot. The draw is the trap. Venezia have played ten league games without a single stalemate, so their fixtures tend to produce a winner one way or the other. Udinese at 3.09 appeals on squad depth, with Zaniolo and Alaba available, yet zero wins in five makes that price a leap of faith rather than value. To be honest, the goals markets carry more certainty than the 1X2 here, and our 1-0 call lands Under 2.5 by design.
Possible Starting Lineups
Venezia possible starting eleven
- GK: Filip Stankovic
- DF: Redouane Halhal, Juan Jesus, Matias Moreno
- MF: Ridgeciano Haps, Richie Sagrado, Simon Sohm, Enrique Pérez Muñoz, Toma Bašić, John Yeboah
- FW: Akor Adams
Davide Nicola has leaned on the 3-4-2-1 all month, and the minutes pick this eleven for us. Stankovic has played every minute in goal and made 24 saves. Halhal and Juan Jesus anchor the back three, with Moreno holding off Antoine Hainaut, whose goal against Napoli keeps him in the conversation. Haps and Sagrado work the flanks as wing-backs, Sohm and Pérez Muñoz do the graft in midfield, and Bašić joins Yeboah behind Adams. Yeboah is the creative spark with thirteen shots in five games, while Adams remains the outlet even if his eight offsides show how direct this side plays.
Udinese possible starting eleven
- GK: Maduka Okoye
- DF: James Abankwah, Matteo Palma, Christian Kabasele
- MF: Mergim Vojvoda, Jesper Karlstrom, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, Hassane Kamara, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Nicolo Zaniolo
- FW: Keinan Davis
Zanetti also runs with the 3-4-2-1, and Okoye has been ever-present behind a back three of Abankwah, Palma and Kabasele. Oumar Solet and David Alaba give the bench experience. Vojvoda and Kamara provide the width, Karlstrom screens in front of the defence, and Ekkelenkamp, Chakvetadze and Zaniolo form the creative band behind Davis. Zaniolo is the one to watch, a goal and eight shots in fewer than 180 minutes making him the most efficient attacker in this squad, while Davis needs one attempt to finally drop after ten fruitless efforts.
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Venezia. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Two struggling sides, one survivor’s instinct. We predict a 1-0 Venezia win built on organisation, home intensity and the simple fact that Udinese’s defence has been the weaker in this pairing all season. The Roma collapse exposed a back line that Kabasele and Abankwah cannot fully patch, while Venezia’s problem sits purely in the final third, where Adams and Yeboah need only one clean look. Nicola’s survival pedigree matters in games like this, tight, ugly and decided by a set piece or a mistake. Take the home win as the headline, pair it with Under 2.5 goals, and leave BTTS alone, because one clean sheet is the most likely shape of this scoreline. Perhaps the September cup win gives the visitors belief, but their league form argues otherwise.
