Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction: 24.10.2026 La Liga 2026/2027

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Valencia sit 19th in La Liga with just six points from nine games, a return built on one win and a defense that has shipped fifteen goals already. Villarreal arrive in mid-table but carry a heavier fixture load, having faced Liverpool and Napoli on the European stage in the last ten days. That contrast, a rested relegation battler against a fatigued but technically superior side, is what makes this Mestalla meeting worth a closer look.

Keep an eye on Hugo Duro, who leads Valencia’s attacking line despite a goalless run and remains their clearest aerial and hold-up outlet. On the other side, Georges Mikautadze has scored twice in his last four appearances and offers Villarreal a reliable focal point even on an off night for the wide players.

Hot stat: Villarreal have won 19 corners across their last five matches compared to just 5 for Valencia, a gap that points to clear territorial and attacking dominance regardless of the scoreline.

Valencia vs Villarreal prediction

We lean toward Villarreal here, but not through a straight moneyline bet. Villarreal’s away form has been patchy, one win in four across the last month, and Valencia have at least drawn two of their last three. Our pick is a Double Chance Draw or Villarreal (X2), which covers the likely outcome without overpaying for an outright win against a Valencia side that rarely loses by more than a goal at home this season.

Villarreal’s passing numbers dwarf Valencia’s across the last five games, 1955 passes against 787, and their shot count sits at 65 to Valencia’s 26. Valencia foul more relative to their possession share and have picked up six yellow cards in that span against Villarreal’s eight, so card counts should run similar regardless of who dominates the ball. That gap in possession and shot volume supports backing Villarreal’s control without expecting a goal avalanche, since Valencia’s deep block has limited high-pressing sides before.

Team Analysis

Valencia’s last match ended goalless against Athletic Bilbao, a result that stretched their winless run and left the attack with just six goals in nine league fixtures. The draw at least kept a clean sheet, something Javier Aguirre’s side has struggled to manage, having conceded eleven goals across their five previous outings before that. In our preview of Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao we called an Athletic win, and the 0-0 scoreline went against that primary pick, though the low-scoring nature of the game matched our under 2.5 lean. Before that, Valencia drew 2-2 with Racing Santander and lost 2-3 to Real Sociedad, a pattern of conceding first and chasing games that has defined their season so far.

Villarreal’s most recent outing was a 3-4 defeat to Liverpool, a game where they scored three times away from home but could not match Liverpool’s attacking edge. In our preview of Liverpool vs Villarreal we backed the hosts to win with goals at both ends, and the 4-3 result delivered on that call. Before the Liverpool trip, Villarreal drew 0-0 with Elche and beat Napoli 3-1, results that show a side capable of scoring against good opposition but still shaky defensively when stretched.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Valencia vs Villarreal stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Villarreal the favourite

• Moneyline Valencia 3.20 | Villarreal 2.15
• Draw 3.60

Bookmakers give Villarreal a 44% implied chance against 30% for Valencia, a gap that reflects the quality difference in the squads despite Villarreal’s mid-table position. The draw price near 3.60 looks reasonable given Valencia have drawn five of their last nine league games, and we see value sitting between the straight win and the draw rather than backing either outright price in isolation.

Possible Starting Lineups

Valencia possible starting eleven

Aguirre tends to set up in a 4-2-3-1, leaning on Rodríguez and García Vayá to shield the back four while Guerra drives from a more advanced role. Duro leads the line, with Danjuma and Raba offering width and pace in behind him, both capable of stretching a Villarreal side that can be caught on transitions.

Villarreal possible starting eleven

Pérez’s matching 4-2-3-1 keeps Comesaña and Gueye as the double pivot, freeing Moleiro to drift centrally behind Mikautadze. Moleiro has logged the most minutes of any Villarreal attacker over the last five games and remains the player most likely to unlock Valencia’s compact shape, while Ayoze Pérez adds two assists from the right in that span.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict Villarreal to edge this one, perhaps by a single goal, with Valencia’s bottom-table attack unlikely to trouble a back line that has shown more resolve than its La Liga ranking suggests. Villarreal’s fixture congestion could blunt their sharpness in the final third, which is why we favor the double chance route over backing the outright win at shorter odds. To be honest, a low-scoring 0-1 or 1-2 finish fits both teams’ recent attacking output better than an open, high-scoring affair.

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