Sofia Quijada
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Valencia welcome Athletic Bilbao to Mestalla sitting 19th in the table with only five points from eight games, their worst start in years. Athletic arrive in far better shape, unbeaten in five across all competitions and have conceded just once in that stretch. The interesting wrinkle here is that Athletic have already played two fewer league matches than most of the top half, yet still sit level on points with several sides above them, a sign their underlying form reads better than the raw table position suggests.
Keep an eye on Javi Guerra pulling strings for Valencia from midfield, his nine shots and three assists combined across the last five matches make him the side’s most productive creator. On the other side, Nico Williams’ directness out wide gives Athletic a transition threat that Valencia’s leaky back line has struggled to contain all season.
Hot stat: Athletic Bilbao have conceded just a single goal across their last five matches in all competitions, while Valencia shipped eleven in the same span, including a 0-5 mauling at the hands of Barcelona.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio de Mestalla |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao prediction
We predict Athletic Bilbao to win this one, most likely by a 0-1 or 0-2 scoreline. Valencia have scored just six goals in eight league games, the second worst return in the division, and their defense has now conceded eleven times in five matches. Athletic have not lost in five and their 1-0 win over Real Sociedad last time out shows a side comfortable grinding out tight results on the road.
Valencia average 32 shots and 10 corners across their last five matches against Athletic’s 24 shots and 5 corners, yet their conversion has been poor, scoring only four from that volume. Valencia also picked up five yellow cards in that span compared to Athletic’s two, suggesting a side chasing games and fouling under pressure, which plays into Athletic’s favour on the counter. Pass accuracy also favours the away side’s control-based approach despite fewer total passes, 90% for Athletic against 81% for Valencia.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Athletic Bilbao Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Valencia’s draw against Racing Santander, 2-2, snapped a run of three straight defeats but did little to ease concerns at Mestalla. Before that they lost 2-3 to Real Sociedad, beat Alavés 1-0, fell 0-1 to Sevilla and were thrashed 0-5 by Barcelona. One win, one draw and three losses in five is a worrying sequence for a side with Champions League pedigree now sitting in the relegation zone with just five points from eight rounds. In our preview of Racing Santander vs Valencia we called a narrow home win built on Racing’s advantage, with goals expected at both ends. The 2-2 result delivered the goals but not the home win, so that call went against us on the primary pick.
Athletic Bilbao’s 1-0 win over Real Sociedad continued a strong run: a draw with Alavés, a draw with Elche, a 3-0 win over Atletico Madrid and a 2-0 win against Celta Vigo precede it. Three wins and two draws from their last five, with only one goal conceded in that run, paints a side that defends with real discipline under Edin Terzic. In our preview of Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao we backed Athletic’s double chance paired with a low-scoring match, though that fixture’s result does not appear in the data available to us, so we cannot confirm whether the call landed.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Valencia | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 5 meetings) | 4 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletic Bilbao the favourite
- Moneyline Valencia 3.40 | Athletic Bilbao 2.20
- Draw 3.30
Bookmakers have Athletic as clear favourites at 43% implied probability against Valencia’s 29%, with the draw sitting at 28%. The gap reflects Athletic’s defensive solidity and unbeaten run against a Valencia side that has lost five of eight league games. Perhaps the most telling number is Valencia’s price drifting above 3.40 for a home fixture, something that rarely happens for a club of this size unless the market has genuinely lost faith in their current form.
Valencia. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Valencia possible starting eleven
- GK: Stole Dimitrievski
- DF: José Gayà, Pablo Maffeo, Justin De Haas, Iker Córdoba
- MF: Guido Rodríguez, José Luis García Vayá, Javi Guerra, Filip Ugrinic, Harvey Elliott
- FW: Hugo Duro
Aguirre keeps faith in the 4-2-3-1 that has featured in his last five outings. Guido Rodríguez and García Vayá shield the back four, while Guerra and Ugrinic carry the creative burden behind Hugo Duro, who leads the line despite a quiet goal return. Elliott’s inclusion on the right offers width and pace that Valencia have missed in recent matches.
Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven
- GK: Unai Simon
- DF: Yuri Berchiche, Aitor Paredes, Aymeric Laporte, Jesus Areso, Johaneko Louis-Jean
- MF: Oihan Sancet, Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta, Mikel Jauregizar
- FW: Iñaki Williams, Nico Williams
Terzic’s 5-3-2 leans on Laporte’s experience and Paredes’ reading of the game at the back, freeing Sancet to dictate tempo centrally. The Williams pairing up top gives Athletic genuine pace in behind, a mismatch against a Valencia backline that has shipped eleven goals in five matches.
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Athletic Bilbao. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Athletic Bilbao leave Mestalla with the points, most likely 0-1 or 0-2. Valencia’s attack has produced only six goals in eight league games and their defense has leaked eleven in the last five outings alone, a combination that rarely holds up against a side as disciplined as Athletic currently look. To be honest, the double chance plus under 2.5 goals angle offers better value than backing the outright away price given how low-scoring these fixtures between the two sides have trended historically.
