If the Champions League and Europa League UEFA finished their group stage yesterday and today, the third-tier European cup still has two more game days before Christmas. The hottest fight is in full swing. The TipsGG team has prepared the most interesting bets for the fifth-round Conference League matches.
Strasbourg vs Breidablik
Strasbourg lead the overall Conference League stage and even beat the tournament’s main favorite Crystal Palace in a head-to-head. However, in the league, the Alsatians’ affairs are not going great — they earned one point in four matches, most against not the most prestigious opponents. The starting lineup and bench are unequal, and it is inconvenient for the team to play with a limited squad. However, most of the African legionnaires did not go to the Africa Cup of Nations, and Strasbourg clearly outclass their opponent.
Breidablik failed the season in Iceland, finishing only fourth and missing European cups next season, which led to a coaching change. The new manager benched the team’s top scorer Tobias Thomsen.
The Icelanders lack practice due to the early end of the championship, they play poorly away in Europe, so logically, for all the above reasons, assume a heavy guest defeat.
Bet: Strasbourg Handicap (-2) (odds 1.9)
Zrinjski vs Rapid
In Mostar, a team desperately needing a win to reach the top-24 will host Vienna’s Rapid, who have lost any chances of a European spring.
Zrinjski have perhaps the best chances among teams outside the playoff zone to jump into the playoffs. The opponent in the form of the worst team in the Conference League edition looks like the most convenient option for the Nobles to continue their European journey. Optimism is added by home European results — two wins in two matches without serious game failures.
Rapid cannot break an eight-match winless streak that dates back to early November. Even Peter Stöger’s dismissal did not change the unpleasant trend. Along with Nice, the Vienna collective have the worst European indicators this season — 0 points earned and minimal chances of at least a positive campaign end.
The motivational factor in this pair looks decisive. If for Rapid the match has no tournament meaning, for Zrinjski this is practically the game of the season. That’s what I suggest betting on.
Bet: Zrinjski to Win (odds 1.90)
Mainz vs Samsunspor
Mainz are led by Urs Fischer — a specialist who once turned Union Berlin from the 2. Bundesliga into a Champions League participant. In the first two matches under the Swiss, the Carnival Club did not lose — drew with Lech and almost beat Bayern. The team are clearly coming out of crisis, though they have major squad losses on the defensive flanks. At home, Mainz are good in this Conference League but beat only more modest and problematic clubs.
Samsunspor are performing solidly in the Turkish league, not falling apart after last year’s sensational bronze. However, the team lost three in a row, and the winless streak is six games. Their best forward went to the Africa Cup of Nations. On the other hand, away Samsunspor score in every match this season.
Given Mainz’s defensive problems, the streak can continue, and the Turks are capable of playing as the first number in this match, so I expect goals from both teams.
Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 1.68)
Sigma Olomouc vs Lech Poznań
It is unlikely that anything will change dramatically for these two teams after the final round. Theoretical chances of staying outside the playoffs exist, but given the rivals’ calendars, they look minimal.
Immediately five teams after previous rounds have the same number of points, and two of them will meet at Andrův Stadion. Sigma approach the match amid an unsuccessful four-game losing streak across all competitions. At the same time, at home the Czechs traditionally look much more confident — only two defeats in 12 matches. Additional pressure is created by the negative goal difference, which will force the hosts to take more risks.
Lech, unlike their opponent, are on a six-match unbeaten streak. Despite the positive goal difference (+3), chances of reaching the top-8 look minimal. However, the Railwaymen are unlikely to take the field without motivation — this is the last match of the calendar year, which they want to end on a high note.
Given the tournament situation where Sigma are forced to push forward, and the guests’ overall goal-scoring nature, both teams scoring looks quite logical.
Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 1.90)
Dynamo Kyiv vs Noah
Kyiv’s Dynamo aim for a second win in the Conference League League Phase at least in the final round. The blue-and-whites sit fourth in the Ukrainian Premier League, Noah fifth in Armenia, but this is a case where paper indicators do not match the real state on the international arena. In the Conference League, the gap between the sides is five points, and the situation is not in favor of the much more famous and titled Ukrainian club.
The Kyiv collective showed their attacking potential by earning a 6:0 home win over Zrinjski, but other European results speak against the Kyivans. Noah earned points in four of their last five Conference League matches but still have not won away. Given the teams’ state, tournament motivation for both, defensive indicators in particular and overall capabilities, giving an edge to one side is difficult.
I will risk assuming the spectators are in for a match with good scoring, and of course goals from both teams.
Bet: Both Teams to Score + Total Over 2.5 (odds 2.25)
Slovan Bratislava vs Häcken
In Slovakia, fans are in for a match that by status more resembles a friendly, as apart from UEFA prize money it decides nothing. However, the financial factor can be additional motivation for both teams.
For Slovan and Häcken, this game will be the last in 2025, so there is an opportunity to end the year on a positive note despite missing the Conference League playoffs.
In the previous round, Slovan earned their first tournament win, somewhat sensationally beating Rayo Vallecano (2:1). Since the start of the season at home, the white have played maximally uncompromising — no draws in 13 matches. Moreover, Slovan’s home games often delight with scoring: in nine cases both teams scored.
Häcken, although they have not won any of their five rounds, drew three times with opponents. One such match was against Rayo Vallecano, whom Slovan beat last round. The Swedish championship ended at the beginning of November, so the team had enough time for targeted preparation for the decisive European cup matches.
Under such circumstances, I expect open and high-scoring football with the hosts’ advantage.
Bet: Slovan Bratislava Don’t Lose + Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 2.21)
Alternative Bet: Slovan Bratislava to Win (odds 2.32)
AEK vs Universitatea Craiova
AEK have hit great form and completely forgotten about failures — the last one happened at the beginning of November; since then the winning streak reached eight matches across all competitions. If recently the Greek team usually beat opponents with their favorite 1:0 score, now scoring has become much higher: AEK easily score at least two goals, in December they could shoot even four and five in one meeting.
Universitatea clearly lack such stability. Although it should be said they have noticeably improved away play: unbeaten in seven matches in a row, barely concede and rarely even draw. However, in the Conference League on this stretch the team only visited frankly weak Rapid, who still have zero points.
Now a tougher test awaits — there is a risk that Universitatea will not cope. Confident to secure a top-8 spot, the Eagles at home will win, so I believe in their victory.
Bet: AEK to Win + AEK Individual Total Over 1.5 (odds 1.7)
Legia vs Lincoln Red Imps
The Legionaries, who have lost all chances of continuing the European campaign, will host the sensational newcomer to the European arena, who still have real chances of reaching the top-24.
A series of lackluster matches and elimination from the Polish Cup led to Iordănescu’s dismissal. However, after that the situation not only did not improve but in some ways became even worse — 9 matches without a win, of which only 3 draws, the rest ended in defeats. In this state, the winter break looks vital for Legia — the team clearly needs a complete reset.
The team from Gibraltar have already written their name in history by reaching European cups for the first time. Now Lincoln are one step away from continuing the fairy tale and reaching the playoffs. For this, the Red Devils need to create another sensation by beating a fairly prestigious opponent. Under certain layouts, even a draw may be enough, but in this case they will have to rely even more on rivals’ slip-ups, as Lincoln have the worst goal difference among potential playoff participants (–5).
Optimism is not added by away results — two defeats in two matches. All their points Imps earned at home, though against fairly serious opponents: Sigma Olomouc, Rijeka and Lech Poznań. This only underlines the team’s character and organisation.
Even Legia’s terrible form does not guarantee Lincoln a positive result. However, giving a worthy fight to such an unstable Legia is quite possible for a team with character. Both teams scoring looks risky but quite logical. Also worth attention is the guests’ individual yellow cards total — fighting for a historic result will force the Red Devils to play on the edge.
Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes (odds 1.77)