Get ready for some decisive duels as European giants and ambitious underdogs take to the pitch to battle for a spot in the world’s most prestigious club tournament. We’ll soon find out who will continue their quest for Champions League qualification and who will drop down to a lower-tier European competition.
Dynamo Kyiv vs. Pafos
Dynamo Kyiv began their qualification journey against Hamrun Spartans, a team that proved to be a walkover. This was evidenced by a dominant 3-0 away win and another confident 3-0 victory at home. The Kyiv side had no problems advancing to the next round.
The Ukrainian Premier League also kicked off, with Dynamo beating Veres 1-0 in their first match. While it was a narrow win with only one goal scored, there weren’t high expectations for Shovkovskiy’s team’s performance after their move from Poland and a difficult preseason.
Meanwhile, Pafos had a much tougher time in the previous round. They faced Maccabi Tel-Aviv and managed a 1-1 draw at home. In the away leg, they secured a 1-0 victory, but with a crucial caveat: Maccabi’s goalkeeper was substituted in the 13th minute, and his replacement received a red card in the 30th minute. This significantly impacted the flow of the game. Pafos had a 14-7 advantage in shots (4-4 on target), but Maccabi had slightly better possession. Had Maccabi played with a full squad, the result could have been different.
I can confidently say that Dynamo is the favorite here, and in my opinion, you can safely bet on their win, not even with a handicap, just a straight-up victory. However, it’s worth noting that Pafos hasn’t lost in regular time in 11 consecutive matches. So I have two options for bets: a home win (W1) at 1.75, or Both Teams to Score at 1.83. Of course, you could combine these outcomes, but I reiterate that Pafos is a solid team and might play quite defensively in the first away leg.
Match Bet: Dynamo Kyiv to win at odds of 1.75
Rangers vs. Viktoria Plzeň
The Scottish club has maintained its playing style from last season. This means we should once again expect exciting matches, both in attack and with plenty of defensive errors. Last year, Rangers scored in 10 of their 14 European matches but conceded even more frequently, in 78% of their games.
The new season started with a clean sheet victory against Panathinaikos, but it’s important to note they played with a man advantage for over half an hour. Even with a numerical advantage, their defense didn’t look convincing. In the away leg in Greece, the Scots allowed their opponent to take 20 shots with an xGA of 1.7, which could have easily resulted in more than one goal conceded. And in a league match against Motherwell, a typical mid-table Scottish team, Rangers conceded (2.2 xG), which indicates poor defensive organization.
As for Viktoria Plzeň, their path to qualification was more difficult. In the first game, the Czechs lost at home to Servette, but secured a crucial 3-1 away win to advance. The team has already started their Czech league campaign, so there’s no lack of match fitness. However, their quality of play is still far from optimal, especially defensively.
This will be one of the most interesting matchups of the Champions League third qualifying round. In the first leg, the bookmakers have deservedly made the home team favorites. Rangers will try to take control of the game and play from a position of strength, while Plzeň will play on the back foot, focusing on counter-attacks and set pieces. I believe there will be goals in this match, so a Total Goals Over bet looks promising.
Match Bet: Total Over 2.5 at odds of 1.93
Red Bull Salzburg vs. Club Brugge
Salzburg has lost its status as the strongest club in Austria and is forced to go through Champions League qualification for the second year in a row. Last season, the team handled this task, but now they face a more serious opponent in Club Brugge, who reached the Round of 16 in the last tournament. Furthermore, Salzburg started the Austrian league season with a draw, which doesn’t inspire confidence in their current form.
In turn, Brugge has proven time and again that they can not only develop young talent but also flexibly adapt to their opponent’s style. Last year, the Belgians knocked out Atalanta, a team known for its pressing and attacking football.
Brugge’s main advantage is their game maturity and tactical flexibility. And it is precisely because of this that the Belgians look like the better candidates to advance to the next round.
At the same time, an open game is expected: Salzburg will not play cautiously at home, and this will create a lot of space for the opponent’s counter-attacks. Both teams are good at attacking and not very reliable defensively.
Match Bet: Club Brugge Double Chance (X2) + Total Over 1.5 at odds of 1.81
Lech Poznań vs. Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade)
Crvena Zvezda has consistently reached the Champions League group stage for the second season in a row. And while the Serbian club is not among the tournament’s favorites, they are capable of putting up a fight against the giants. This summer, the team has made some serious additions: Xavi Babika from Toulouse, Brazilian goalkeeper Matheus from Braga, and the main star of the transfer window, Marko Arnautović—an experienced striker who can make a difference in attack. In the second qualifying round, the Serbs confidently dispatched Lincoln with a 6-1 aggregate score. They also have a perfect record in their domestic league with two wins and a total score of 11-1.
Lech Poznań looks like a club of a more modest level. Despite a spectacular 7-1 victory over Icelandic side Breiðablik, the Poles have noticeable defensive problems. A defeat in the Polish Super Cup to Legia and two losses in the first rounds of Ekstraklasa with 7 goals conceded are a troubling sign. It seems that after their championship-winning season, the team has lost its stability.
Lech’s return to European competition has been a loud one, but for now, it feels like their next opponent is in a completely different league. The Serbian team is on the rise, looking formidable even without the star Arnautović, and they handle lower-level opponents with impressive composure.
Match Bet: Crvena Zvezda Individual Total Over 1.5 at odds of 2.43
Feyenoord vs. Fenerbahçe
This is the first official meeting for both clubs this season, so their readiness can only be judged by the results of friendly matches. And here, Feyenoord hasn’t been impressive: defeats in key friendlies against Gent and Nice by the same 1-2 scoreline leave more questions than answers. Furthermore, according to media reports, the club may lose its key player Igor Paixão, which would significantly impact their attacking potential.
In turn, Fenerbahçe, forever the runners-up in Turkey, hopes to take a step forward this season. The departure of Džeko is expected to be offset by the young Duran, and the signings of Amrabat and Škriniar are meant to add quality to the midfield and defense, respectively. A friendly against Benfica (2-3) showed that the Turkish team has attacking potential, but at the same time, remains vulnerable in defense. However, Fenerbahçe’s main weapon is not the squad, but the coach—José Mourinho. His experience in European competitions could play a key role in a two-legged tie, especially in terms of tactics and psychology.
The players definitely need time to get into the game, and I don’t think Fenerbahçe will rush things, considering the return leg will be in Turkey. In my opinion, there should be goals because both clubs were vulnerable in defense last season and are likely to remain so this year, but in the first leg, everyone will be cautious, especially the Turkish team.
Match Bet: Fenerbahçe Handicap +0.5 at odds of 1.77
Nice vs. Benfica
On one hand, things are a bit simpler for Nice—the French team didn’t have a Club World Cup, and their squad was only selectively updated this summer. However, in their last 28 European matches, Nice has only defeated teams from Eastern Europe and Israel, and the “Eaglets” are looking to get into the Champions League for the first time in eight years.
Benfica has significantly updated its squad, but the new players didn’t disappoint in the first official match of the season, winning the Portuguese Super Cup against the country’s best team, Sporting. Reaching the Round of 16 in the Club World Cup with a victory over Bayern also says a lot about the Lisbon club’s potential in international matches.
Over the past five years, the “Eagles” have started their Champions League journey from the third qualifying round twice, and both times they secured comfortable victories both at home and away. I assume that the visitors will once again show their class away against a less experienced opponent and will not lose on the road.
Match Bet: Benfica Double Chance (X2) + Total Over 1.5 at odds of 1.71