Liam Duckstein
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Group 1 of League A already looks unforgiving. Turkey opened with a 0-1 loss to France, and Italy fell 0-2 to Belgium, leaving both sides pointless at the bottom of the table after matchday one. Montella and Mancini now meet with a shared problem to fix, and neither coach has much room left for another slow start.
The interesting wrinkle here is how differently each side misfired. Italy piled up 21 shots against Belgium and still walked away with nothing to show for it, while Turkey barely troubled the French goal at all. Same result, very different routes to disappointment.
Two names worth tracking closely: Arda Güler for Turkey, who carried the heaviest passing and set-piece load in the France defeat, and Moise Kean for Italy, who took five of his side’s 21 shots against Belgium and remains their most direct route to goal.
The hot stat of the week belongs to Italy. Firing 21 shots without scoring is the kind of number that flags a finishing problem rather than bad luck, and it is the widest shot-to-goal gap either of these two teams has produced in their most recent outing.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League A Group 1 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Turkey vs Italy prediction
We predict a tight, low-scoring night with Italy edging it, perhaps by the odd goal. The bookmakers rate Italy slight favourites at 38% against Turkey’s 34%, and that gap feels fair rather than generous. Italy’s squad depth and passing control (590 passes against Belgium versus Turkey’s 364 against France) should let them dominate territory, even if their finishing was poor last time out.
Turkey’s game plan under Montella leans on compact defending and quick transitions rather than sustained pressure, which explains their modest 12 shots in the France defeat. Italy commit fewer fouls per match (12 against Turkey’s 14) and generally keep the ball better, but their conversion rate has been the real issue, not their control of the game. Expect a cagey opening period, few clear chances, and a match that could easily be settled by a single set piece or moment of individual quality from Güler or Kean.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Italy to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Turkey’s last five results read L-W-L-L-W, a mixed bag that shows real inconsistency against varied opposition. The most recent match against France ended 0-1, and Turkey struggled to create anything of note, managing just 12 shots and relying heavily on Güler and Özcan to move the ball forward. In our preview of Turkey vs France we backed the French to win while still expecting Turkey to find the net, and the 0-1 scoreline delivered the win we called but not the goal at the other end.
Italy’s last five results read L-W-W-L-W, a slightly better trend on paper, but the manner of their most recent defeat is the bigger concern. Losing 0-2 to Belgium despite 21 shots and 539 accurate passes points to a side that dominates territory without dominating scoreboards. In our preview of Italy vs Belgium we backed Italy for a narrow home win with goals kept tight, and the 0-2 result went against that call entirely.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Turkey and Italy have not met in a competitive fixture recently enough to feature in our records for this preview. There is no fresh head-to-head data to draw from ahead of this Group 1 clash.
🚨Check out our dedicated Turkey vs Italy stats page for more info.
Turkey. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Italy the favourite
- Moneyline Turkey 2.78 | Italy 2.47
- Draw 3.37
The market keeps this close, with barely a few percentage points separating Turkey and Italy in implied probability. Italy’s slight edge in the odds reflects their possession and passing quality rather than any real scoring threat right now, and the draw price at over 3.30 across most books looks fair given how both defenses have shaped up in their opening fixtures. We would not be surprised if this one finishes level, to be hones, given how blunt both attacks looked last time out.
Possible Starting Lineups
Turkey possible starting eleven
- GK: Uğurcan Çakır
- DF: Zeki Çelik, Merih Demiral, Abdulkerim Bardakçı, Ferdi Kadıoğlu
- MF: Ismail Yüksek, Salih Özcan, Arda Güler
- FW: Baris Alper Yilmaz, Oğuz Aydın, Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Montella should stick with the 4-3-3 that started against France, built around a settled back four and Güler pulling strings from midfield. Baris Alper Yilmaz and Oğuz Aydın give width up front, while Çakır’s distribution from the back stays important against an Italy side that likes to press high.
Italy possible starting eleven
- GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- DF: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Gianluca Mancini, Riccardo Calafiori, Diego Coppola
- MF: Sandro Tonali, Nicolò Barella
- AM: Nicolo Cambiaghi, Alessandro Romano, Davide Frattesi
- FW: Moise Kean
Mancini keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 that started against Belgium, with Tonali and Barella screening the back four and Kean left isolated up top. Cambiaghi’s pace on the flank offers the clearest route to unlocking Turkey’s defense, and Donnarumma’s distribution will matter if Italy get pinned back on the counter.
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Italy. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a low-scoring affair that leans, narrowly, toward Italy. Both sides struggled to score in their opening fixture, but Italy’s control of possession and shot volume against Belgium suggests they will create more openings here, even against a well-organized Turkish back four. Our punters team leans toward Italy to win by a single goal, with under 2.5 total goals and no BTTS as the value routes alongside the main result. Turkey’s home support and Güler’s creativity give them a puncher’s chance, but Italy’s squad depth should tell in the closing stages.
Read also: Turkiye vs Italy Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 26 Sep 2026
Read also: Predicted Lineups: Turkiye vs Italy – Expected XIs and Team News
