Tulsa vs Monterey Bay Prediction: 18.06.2026 USL Championship

Tulsa welcome Monterey Bay to Oneok Field in a USL Championship regular season fixture that carries real weight for both sides. Tulsa sit 14th in the standings with 16 points from 11 games, sitting right on the edge of the playoff conversation. Monterey Bay are 22nd with 11 points from 12 games, desperate for a result on the road.

The most interesting angle here is that these two clubs already met earlier this season, with Tulsa winning 2-1. Monterey Bay will be looking to reverse that result, and they arrive in form, having won all three of their matches in the last 30 days. Tulsa’s own recent form is patchier, with just one win across their last three.

Keep an eye on Riley Bidois for Monterey Bay. The forward has scored four goals in his last three appearances and leads his side in shots. For Tulsa, Bruno Lapa provides the creative spark in midfield, registering an assist in recent action while showing solid pass accuracy relative to his teammates.

Hot stat: Monterey Bay have scored eight goals across their last five matches, more than double Tulsa’s three in the same span, suggesting a significant offensive gap between these sides right now.

Tulsa vs Monterey Bay Prediction

Tulsa hold home advantage and beat Monterey Bay just a few weeks ago, but Monterey Bay’s current momentum is hard to ignore. Three wins from three in the last 30 days, combined with a superior shot volume over the last five matches (37 to Tulsa’s 28), points toward a visitor side that is genuinely finding form at the right time.

Tulsa’s home record is decent enough, but their last outing ended in a 1-5 thrashing against Charleston, which raises real questions about their defensive shape. Monterey Bay won their last three against Sporting Jax, Loudoun, and Birmingham Legion, all of which were lower-ranked opposition, so the quality step up is real. Still, the offensive data favors the visitors here.

We predict Monterey Bay to earn at least a point, with the most value sitting on the draw or a narrow Monterey Bay win. The 3.55 on the draw from Bovada is the pick that stands out, given the pattern of this rivalry, three of the last six head-to-head meetings have ended level, and Tulsa’s shaky defensive display last time out.

Tulsa commit fouls at a high rate across five matches (48 total), while Monterey Bay’s 60 fouls suggest a physical, disjointed midfield battle is likely. Tulsa’s pass accuracy across five games is poor relative to Monterey Bay, who have recorded 1,204 accurate passes to Tulsa’s 493. That dominance in possession could allow Monterey Bay to control the tempo and frustrate the hosts.

Corners are relatively even at 10 for Tulsa and 11 for Monterey Bay across five games, so no edge there. Both teams have recorded three offsides each, suggesting disciplined defensive lines on both ends. The foul count and yellow card data (7 for Tulsa, 6 for Monterey Bay) suggest this will be a fairly physical encounter without necessarily going off the rails.

Team Analysis

Tulsa’s recent five-match run has been inconsistent at best. They beat Hartford Athletic 2-0 and El Paso 4-1 earlier in the run, which suggested genuine attacking quality. A 2-1 win over Monterey Bay followed, but then came a 0-0 draw against Las Vegas Lights and, most recently, a 1-5 loss to Charleston. That loss to Charleston is the headline. Charleston are a solid side, but conceding five at home is a concerning sign for Luke Spencer’s defense. Tulsa’s goal difference sits at zero across the season, which reflects a team that can score but also leaks goals without warning.

Monterey Bay have turned a difficult season around over the last few weeks. After a run that included a 1-3 loss to Lexington and a 1-2 defeat to Tulsa, they have since beaten Birmingham Legion 2-0, Loudoun 4-1, and Sporting Jax 2-1. The 4-1 win over Loudoun is the standout result, showing they can put teams away when the opportunity is there. Riley Bidois has been central to this revival, scoring four goals in the last three games. Their 22nd-place position in the table does not reflect this recent surge, and Alex Covelo’s side will feel they can build on it with a result in Tulsa.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Tulsa vs Monterey Bay stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Tulsa the Favourite

• Moneyline Tulsa 1.88 | Monterey Bay 3.65
• Draw 3.55

The bookmakers’ average gives Tulsa a 50% chance of winning, which feels slightly generous given their recent defensive frailty. Monterey Bay at 3.65 with Bovada represents real value for a side that has won three straight. The draw at 3.55 is also compelling, especially given the historical pattern of this fixture. To be honest, backing Tulsa at 1.88 feels like chasing a favourite based on home advantage alone, rather than current form.

Possible Starting Lineups

Tulsa Possible Starting Eleven

Alexandros Tabakis gets the nod in goal after making 13 saves across three appearances, making him the clear starter. Lucas Stauffer has been the most consistent defensive presence with three games played and a solid interception count. Bruno Lapa is the key creative outlet in midfield, and Bailey Sparks adds energy and pressing with five free kicks taken. Tulsa’s likely 4-4-2 shape gives them a compact defensive block, though the recent 1-5 loss suggests the back line needs to tighten significantly.

Monterey Bay Possible Starting Eleven

Jacob Jackson has played two of the last three games and appears to be the current first choice, with Fernando Delgado having picked up a yellow card. Zack Farnsworth and Nico Gordon anchor a back line that has looked solid recently, combining for five interceptions in five games. Nick Ross and Ryuga Nakamura provide the midfield engine, both playing all 270 minutes across the last three games. Riley Bidois is the standout attacker with four goals in three matches, and Ilijah Paul contributes three assists to give Monterey Bay a dangerous front partnership. Their 5-4-1 formation can shift to a 5-3-2 in attack, and it has worked well in their recent winning run.

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The Verdict

This is a closer match than the standings suggest. Tulsa are at home and have already beaten Monterey Bay once this season, but their last performance, a 1-5 loss to Charleston, puts a real question mark over their defensive reliability. Monterey Bay are riding a three-game winning streak, have scored eight goals in their last five matches, and carry a shot volume advantage heading into this game.

We predict the draw as the best value pick at 3.55. Monterey Bay have the form and the firepower to avoid defeat, and Tulsa’s home record alone is not enough to justify backing them at odds under 2.0 given their current defensive issues. Both teams to score is a fair call as well, given Tulsa’s ability to find the net and Monterey Bay’s recent attacking output led by Riley Bidois.

Perhaps the most telling data point is that three of the last six meetings between these sides have ended level. The pattern, combined with Monterey Bay’s momentum and Tulsa’s defensive vulnerability, makes the draw the standout bet for this one.

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