The San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder meet Tuesday evening in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals with the series locked at 2-2. San Antonio took the opener in double overtime on the road, Oklahoma City answered with back-to-back wins to move ahead 2-1, and the Spurs dominated Game 4 to force a decisive stretch. This is now a best-of-3 for the right to face the New York Knicks in the 2026 NBA Finals.
San Antonio carries no official injuries into Game 5, though De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper have each missed time in the series. On the Thunder side, Ajay Mitchell is out, and Jalen Williams remains questionable after exiting Game 2 with a hamstring issue and sitting out the last two contests.
The picks below are drawn from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has produced well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated picks across eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the conference finals on a 26-10 run (72%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season.
NBA Playoffs Best Bets for Tuesday, May 26
- Spurs +4.5
- Under 216.5
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 assists
- Keldon Johnson Over 5.5 points
Spurs +4.5
San Antonio has kept games competitive even in defeat, and now holds the healthier roster. The Spurs are 14-7 ATS as underdogs this season and 11-6 ATS as road underdogs specifically. Oklahoma City was one of the league’s premier home teams in the regular season at 34-7 straight up at Paycom Center, but sits at just 23-24 ATS there. The Spurs cover in 50% of simulations.
Under 216.5
The Under lands in 58.4% of SportsLine‘s simulations. Only Game 4 went Under this specific line, partly because of Oklahoma City‘s perimeter struggles. Returning home may help role players like Alex Caruso and Jared McCain find their footing, but the absence of Mitchell and the likely unavailability of Williams limits the Thunder‘s offensive ceiling.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 7.5 Assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander recorded seven assists in Game 4, his series low. SGA had compiled 33 assists across the first three games as Thunder shooters connected at a high rate. Those shots stopped falling in Game 4, and the rotation has been disrupted by injuries. With the supporting cast compromised, Gilgeous-Alexander may need to prioritize scoring over distribution. The SportsLine props model projects him at 6.1 assists.
Keldon Johnson Over 5.5 Points
The SportsLine props model projects Keldon Johnson for 8.9 points in Game 5. He logged reduced minutes in Games 3 and 4, though Game 4’s lopsided final score likely distorted his usage. Johnson has not shot efficiently in the series, so even a modest uptick in percentage should push him past this line, which he has cleared in three of the four previous games.
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