Sportivo Luqueno vs Ameliano Prediction: 07.09.2026 Paraguayan Primera Division Clausura

Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover

Add on Google

Two mid-table sides with identical points totals meet in Itaugua in what amounts to a six-pointer for Clausura survival credibility. Sportivo Luqueno host Ameliano at Estadio Juan Canuto Pettengill, and the most telling detail heading into this fixture is that Ameliano have won three of the last four competitive meetings between these sides, including a 1-0 win and a 1-3 defeat of Luqueno in 2024. Roberto Nanni’s men arrive as narrow favourites despite playing away, and the bookmakers’ numbers back that assessment. Midfielder Marcelo Pérez has been one of Luqueno’s more productive attacking outlets in recent weeks, chipping in with a goal and regularly generating shots from midfield. For Ameliano, defender A. Paredes has been unusually dangerous going forward, registering a goal and leading the team in total shots across the last five games.

Hot stat: Ameliano have accumulated 47 free kicks across their last five matches, the highest figure in this fixture by a significant margin, pointing to a physical, disrupted style that could hand Luqueno set-piece opportunities in dangerous areas.

Sportivo Luqueno vs Ameliano Prediction

Ameliano’s head-to-head record gives them a genuine edge here. They have won four of the last nine meetings and have lost just once in the last six, while Luqueno have only one win across that same stretch. Luqueno’s season record (9 wins from 31) is marginally worse than Ameliano’s (10 wins from 31), and their goal difference of -5 versus Ameliano’s -1 in the Clausura standings tells a clear story about defensive fragility. Luqueno have conceded 15 goals in just 8 Clausura games, the worst defensive record outside of San Lorenzo.

Luqueno operate in a 4-1-4-1 shape that tends to compress the midfield but leaves them exposed on the counter. Their pass accuracy across the last five games sits at a lower level than Ameliano’s, and they have committed 36 fouls in those five matches to Ameliano’s 42, suggesting both sides play with physical intensity. Ameliano’s higher foul count and 9 yellow cards indicate a team that defends aggressively and can disrupt rhythm, which suits a game where Luqueno need to build from deep. With Luqueno’s leaky defence and Ameliano’s recent winning form (2 wins in the last 30 days against Luqueno’s 3, but Ameliano beating stronger opposition on balance), the away side’s attacking threat is real.

We predict Ameliano to win or the draw as the main value, with the match likely producing goals at both ends given Luqueno’s defensive numbers.

• Main tip: Ameliano to win or draw (Double Chance X2)
• Value alternative: Both Teams to Score – Yes

Team Analysis

Sportivo Luqueno’s last five results paint a mixed picture. They drew 2-2 with table-toppers 2 de Mayo in their most recent outing, a creditable result given that opponent’s form, and they backed that up with a 2-1 win over Rubio Nu before it. The concern is the 0-2 home loss to Nacional Asuncion sandwiched in between, and a 1-2 defeat to Libertad Asuncion before that. In the Clausura, Luqueno have won 3 and lost 4 from 8 games, scoring 10 but conceding 15. Coach Rodrigo López’s side can create chances, evidenced by their 51 total shots in the last five, but converting and keeping clean sheets remain persistent problems. Their 30-day form shows 3 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw from 6 games, which represents genuine improvement but is not consistent enough to inspire confidence against a motivated away side.

Ameliano’s most recent fixture was a 0-3 defeat at home to Sportivo Trinidense, a sobering result that followed a 1-1 draw with Guarani. Before those two, they beat Recoleta 3-1, showing they can score freely against certain opponents. Their 30-day record reads 2 wins, 3 losses, and 1 draw, which is weaker than Luqueno’s over the same period on paper. The 0-3 loss to Trinidense is a red flag, but Trinidense are one of the better sides in the division right now. Ameliano’s 53 total shots across five games slightly edge Luqueno’s 51, and their 1784 passes compared to Luqueno’s 1512 show a team that wants to control possession. The single red card in recent matches adds a discipline concern, though their 4-4-2 shape gives them width and a direct option through the channels.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

Across the nine most recent head-to-head meetings, Ameliano have outscored Luqueno 11-8, with four Ameliano wins, three draws, and two Luqueno victories. The last three competitive meetings produced two Ameliano wins and one draw, with Luqueno failing to win any of those three fixtures.

🚨Check out our dedicated Sportivo Luqueno vs Ameliano stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Ameliano the favourite

• Moneyline Sportivo Luqueno 2.95 | Ameliano 2.37
• Draw 3.10
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

Ameliano’s odds hovering around 2.35-2.49 across bookmakers reflect a slight but clear market lean toward the away side. The bookmakers’ win probability of 38% for Ameliano versus 32% for Luqueno aligns with the head-to-head data. Pinnacle, typically the sharpest book, prices Ameliano at 2.49, suggesting the true probability is close to that 38-40% range. Luqueno at 2.65-3.15 carries value only if you believe the home advantage and their recent uptick in form outweighs the historical record. The draw at 3.00-3.30 is not without merit given how evenly matched these sides are on paper, but Ameliano’s H2H dominance makes the Double Chance X2 the more measured play.

Possible Starting Lineups

Sportivo Luqueno possible starting eleven

Dante Campisi has featured in four of the last five matches and is the expected starter between the posts. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Facundo Wiechniak and Alexis Cantero as the most consistent defensive presences. Lucas Morales is worth watching: he has contributed a goal and an assist from defence across five games and leads the team in passes attempted at the back. Giovanni Bogado anchors the midfield with the most passes of any outfield player. Marcelo Pérez, operating as an advanced midfielder in the 4-1-4-1, has a goal and two shots on average per game recently and is Luqueno’s primary creative threat. Oscar Ruiz leads the forward line, having scored once and averaged consistent shot involvement.

Ameliano possible starting eleven

Á. Sánchez is the clear first-choice goalkeeper with four consecutive starts and 9 saves in that span. Luca Falabella and Julio González are the most reliable defensive starters by minutes played. A. Paredes deserves a mention as a defender who has taken 10 shots across five matches, the most of any player in either squad, and has scored once, making him a set-piece and forward-run threat in a 4-4-2. Estivel Moreira has been Ameliano’s most productive midfielder, scoring twice and picking up two yellow cards in four appearances. Roberto Nanni’s 4-4-2 relies on wide midfielders to support the forwards, with Valentin Larralde and Ayala Bentos providing the width to stretch Luqueno’s defensive block.

🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅

• Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
• Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
• Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.

TipsGG Match Prediction

The numbers stack up clearly in Ameliano’s favour. They lead the H2H record 4-2-3 across the last nine meetings, have outscored Luqueno in those games, and arrive with a possession-based style that can exploit a defence that has shipped 15 goals in 8 Clausura matches. Luqueno’s home form offers some resistance, and their 2-2 draw against 2 de Mayo shows they can compete, but their underlying defensive numbers are hard to ignore. Ameliano’s 47 free kicks in five games signal a team that disrupts play and draws fouls, which could translate to dangerous dead-ball situations against a side that has not kept a clean sheet reliably. We predict Ameliano to win, with both teams likely to score given Luqueno’s attacking output and Ameliano’s own defensive inconsistencies shown in the 0-3 loss to Trinidense. The Double Chance X2 is the safest play, and BTTS Yes at a sensible price adds value to the ticket.

More useful links for football fans

• Gamble Responsibly
• Best Football Betting Websites
• How to Bet On Sports
• Sports Betting Glossary
• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG