Sofia Quijada
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The Strongest host Tomayapo at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz, sitting third in the Bolivian Professional Football League standings with 30 points from 16 matches. Tomayapo occupy 14th place with just 16 points and a goal difference of -19, making this a significant mismatch on paper. The altitude factor at Hernando Siles, one of the highest-altitude stadiums in world football, plays heavily in The Strongest’s favor against visiting sides, and Tomayapo have shown little ability to cope with road games this season. One thing worth noting: The Strongest’s most recent result was a 2-4 home defeat to Bolivar, so there is a reaction performance expected from coach Antônio Carlos Zago’s side.
Defender Martin Chiatti stands out for The Strongest, contributing three goals in five matches from the backline, a remarkable output that makes him a genuine threat at set pieces. For Tomayapo, midfielder Lisandro Sebastián Montenegro has been quietly influential, recording a goal and nine interceptions across three appearances, giving the visitors their best chance of disrupting The Strongest’s build-up play.
The hot stat from recent matches: The Strongest have scored 12 goals across their last five games, averaging 2.4 per match, and their attack has registered 79 total shots in that span. Even in the heavy loss to Bolivar, they found the net twice, which speaks to the team’s attacking continuity regardless of result.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bolivian Professional Football League 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
The Strongest vs Tomayapo Prediction
The Strongest are the clear favorites here, and the value lies firmly on their side winning by a comfortable margin. Their home record at altitude, combined with Tomayapo’s season-long defensive problems (32 goals conceded in 17 league games), points strongly toward a one-sided contest. The Strongest’s 4-1-4-1 setup gives them numerical control in midfield, and Tomayapo’s 5-3-2 defensive block has already conceded five to Nacional Potosi just days ago.
In terms of style, The Strongest average more passes per game and carry a noticeably higher pass accuracy, reflecting a possession-based approach that suffocates lower-ranked sides. Tomayapo commit a comparable number of fouls (61 vs 62 over five matches) but generate far fewer shots (76 vs 79), meaning their defensive aggression does not translate into attacking transitions. The Strongest’s 13 yellow cards over five games show they press with intensity, which at home altitude becomes a real physical weapon. We predict The Strongest to win comfortably, with their set-piece threat via Chiatti adding to the goal tally.
- Best bet: The Strongest to win
- Value pick: The Strongest -1.5 Asian Handicap
| 🔥Hot Tip: | The Strongest to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
The Strongest have played seven matches in the last 30 days, winning four and losing three, with no draws. Their year-long record of 17 wins from 32 matches (53% win rate) shows consistency at the top end of the table. The last five results tell a more layered story: wins over SA Bulo Bulo (3-0), Universitario de Vinto (4-3), and Oriente Petrolero (2-1) demonstrate attacking output, but losses to Guabira (1-3) and Bolivar (2-4) expose defensive vulnerabilities against well-organized or high-quality opposition. The Bolivar defeat, the most recent outing, was particularly costly, but Zago’s side had won three of the four matches before it. At home against a side of Tomayapo’s level, a strong response is expected.
Tomayapo arrive in poor shape. Their last six matches produced three wins, two losses, and one draw, but the most recent result was a 1-5 home thrashing by Nacional Potosi, which exposed serious defensive fragility. Before that, they had beaten Independiente Petrolero 3-0 and Real Potosi 1-0, suggesting their form is inconsistent rather than trending upward. Their season record of just six wins from 23 matches (26% win rate) is one of the worst in the division. With a goal difference of -19 and no away wins of note against higher-ranked sides, the road trip to La Paz looks very difficult.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | The Strongest | Tomayapo |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 14 | 4 |
🚨Check out our dedicated The Strongest vs Tomayapo stats page for more info.
Tomayapo. Source: Official Facebook
The head-to-head record tells a clear story. Across the last five meetings, The Strongest have scored 14 goals to Tomayapo’s four. The most recent encounter this season ended 0-0, but bookmakers priced that as a near-even match. Before that, The Strongest posted a 6-0 and a 5-0 win in the same calendar year. The lone exception is a 0-1 Bolivian League 2025 Apertura loss and a 3-3 Copa draw, both of which came under different conditions. At altitude in La Paz, The Strongest’s dominance is well-established.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: The Strongest the Favourite
- Moneyline The Strongest 1.19 (avg) | Tomayapo 10.51 (avg)
- Draw 6.07 (avg)
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The market is pricing The Strongest at roughly 1.17-1.22, reflecting the 76% win probability assigned by bookmakers. To be honest, these odds leave little margin for straight moneyline bets, but the handicap and “both halves” markets offer better value given Tomayapo’s defensive record and The Strongest’s scoring volume at home. The draw at 5.75-6.50 is not worth chasing; Tomayapo have not drawn against top-half sides on the road this season.
Possible Starting Lineups
The Strongest Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Diego Valdivia
- DF: Adrian Jusino, Martin Chiatti, Pablo Pedraza, Kevin Romay
- MF: Victor Cuellar, Jaime Arrascaita, Raúl Castro, Jovani Welch, Kevin Salvatierra
- FW: Adrián Estacio
The Strongest’s preferred 4-1-4-1 sees Diego Valdivia in goal, with Martin Chiatti anchoring the defense after his three goals in five games make him a set-piece threat at both ends. Jaime Arrascaita drives from midfield with two goals and consistent passing volume, while Adrián Estacio leads the line with 12 shots in five matches. Luis Banegas has also featured in goal across recent games, so there may be rotation between the posts. Salvatierra adds energy from the midfield, and the combination of Arrascaita and Raúl Castro gives The Strongest control through the center.
Tomayapo Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Luis Cardenas
- DF: Gino Barbieri, Javier Guerra, Kevin Mamani
- MF: Lisandro Sebastián Montenegro, Yordy Álvarez, Mario Barbery
- FW: Ramiro Eguez, Ronald Cuellar, Jorge Orozco, F. Nouet
Tomayapo’s 5-3-2 collapses into a deep defensive block, with Gino Barbieri and Javier Guerra providing experience at the back. Guerra has scored once and committed 12 fouls in five matches, showing his combative style. Lisandro Montenegro is the most dynamic midfielder, combining a goal with nine interceptions, and he will need to be at his best to disrupt The Strongest’s midfield. Ramiro Eguez leads the attack with one goal and 10 shots from three appearances, making him the primary outlet on the counter.
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The Strongest. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
The Strongest should win this match without too much difficulty. Their altitude advantage, superior squad depth, and scoring rate of 2.4 goals per game over the last five matches all point in one direction. Tomayapo just conceded five at home against a mid-table side, and their away record this season offers no encouragement for backers. The 0-0 draw in the first meeting this season was an anomaly, priced accordingly at the time with near-even odds. The last two home meetings produced 6-0 and 5-0 scorelines, and while a repeat of that margin seems unlikely given Tomayapo’s occasional defensive resilience, we predict The Strongest to win by at least two goals. The best bets remain The Strongest on the Asian Handicap -1.5 and The Strongest to win both halves, with Over 2.5 goals as a supporting selection.
