Southampton vs Leicester Prediction: 14.02.2026 FA Cup 2025/26

As the FA Cup enters its Round of 32, Southampton host Leicester at St. Mary’s Stadium in what promises to be a tactical clash writ large on English football’s greatest knockout stage. With Southampton’s recent resurgence and Leicester grappling to rediscover their edge, this match is more than just a ticket to the next round—it’s a study in contrasting trajectories. Both squads have significant stories brewing, and the prospect of redemption or further glory will weigh heavy under the mid-February floodlights.

Keep a keen eye on Southampton’s lively winger Léo Scienza, whose knack for timely goals and assists could swing momentum at any moment, and Leicester’s midfield dynamo Abdul Fatawu Issahaku, a player with game-turning ability and a keen sense for exploiting opposition gaps.

The “hot stat”? Southampton stand undefeated in five, with their 4-3 thriller win over the Foxes a vivid reminder that recent history is on their side when it matters most.

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Southampton vs Leicester prediction

Best Value Match Prediction: Southampton to Win

Given Southampton’s strong home form (four wins in their last six, including a recent 4-3 over Leicester), their clinical edge in key moments and a tactical fluidity under manager Tonda Eckert, the value lies in backing the Saints to progress. Leicester’s rotten run—winless in six and a porous backline—gives Southampton both psychological and functional advantages.

Southampton average 2.6 goals per match across their previous five, with Scienza, Stewart, and Charles particularly sharp. Leicester’s defence has been leaky, conceding nine in five, and their attack has been overly reliant on Issahaku’s brilliance. Southampton’s 4-2-3-1 allows for control in midfield, with Downes and Charles disrupting opposition rhythm—a key asset given Leicester’s pressing style that often leaves them vulnerable to counters.

Discipline is a minor concern for Southampton (12 yellows in the last five), but the strategic fouling has so far prevented game-changing red cards. Leicester have seen fewer bookings but have lost composure late in games—another edge to the home side. With superior ball retention (79% pass accuracy vs Leicester’s 73%) and a more consistent front line, Southampton are heavily fancied to secure victory in front of their faithful.

Team Analysis

Southampton Recent Games:

The Saints have been in commanding form, losing just once in their last six outings. Their last fixture prior to this FA Cup tie was a high-octane 4-3 home triumph over Leicester themselves—a testament to both their attacking swagger and resilience under pressure. Prior to that, tight wins over Watford and Stoke (1-0, 2-0) showed their ability to grind out results when necessary, while the 1-1 away draw to Portsmouth highlighted a more measured approach against defensively stubborn opposition. Key patterns: high pressing in attack, effective transition play, and a midfield willing to put in the hard graft.

Leicester Recent Games:

The Foxes, by contrast, are suffering through a barren patch—winless in their last six, with five defeats. Their 3-4 loss at St. Mary’s revealed both attacking intent and defensive disarray. Most notably, they lack consistency up front and are heavily reliant on moments of individual inspiration from Fatawu Issahaku and Patson Daka. The defeat to Birmingham (1-2) and a 0-2 loss at Charlton further exposed their defensive frailties and inability to seize momentum after setbacks. If Leicester are to threaten, they’ll need both structure and more from their secondary attackers.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Southampton vs Leicester stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Southampton the favourite

• Moneyline Southampton 1.73 | Leicester 4.30
• Draw 3.80
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.96 | Under 2.5 1.97
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.69 | No 2.10

The bookies have Southampton as clear favourites (average win probability 54%), reflecting both the form table and a home advantage. The sharp drop for Leicester (winrate just 0% in last six) underlines the risk in backing the Foxes. The Over 2.5 goals market is tightly balanced, but Southampton’s attacking record and both teams’ recent high-scoring affairs make this a strong play. The BTTS price is short, echoing each side’s defensive vulnerabilities. In short, this contest leans toward goals, with Southampton on the front foot.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Southampton possible starting eleven

Southampton have gone with the reliable 4-2-3-1 in their previous outings, and there’s no reason to expect a change. Daniel Peretz has been a steady hand in goal, while Harwood-Bellis and Stephens form an assured central partnership. Scienza stands out as a pivot in attack, buoyed by support from the creative Azaz and Charles’s dynamism in midfield. Ross Stewart, with three goal contributions in recent games, remains the spearhead. Expect a disciplined shape, with overlapped runs from Bree and Manning offering width.

Leicester possible starting eleven

Expect Leicester to mirror the 4-2-3-1, hoping to plug defensive gaps with Nelson and Okoli at the heart of defence and Begović’s experience between the posts. Issahaku remains their main attacking outlet, supported by the elusive Mavididi, while Daka leads the line needing better service. If the Foxes are to surprise, it will rest on their ability to find greater balance between their pressing game and defensive transitions. The midfield duo of Winks and Choudhury will look to shield, but it’s up front where creativity must shine.

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My take on the Match

Everything points towards a feisty, high-tempo FA Cup battle, but it’s Southampton’s form and cohesion that tip the scales. The Saints’ sharper frontline and tougher midfield engine mean they should have too much for an underperforming Leicester. Expect the home side’s combination play and proactive pressing to make the difference; Leicester’s recent history in conceding late goals seems likely to continue unless they dramatically shore things up at the back. My main pick is Southampton to secure a result inside 90 minutes—possibly by a two-goal margin, with goals on both sides and plenty of attacking football for the neutral.

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