Liam Duckstein
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Slovenia and North Macedonia meet in round two of League B Group 1 with both sides still searching for their first win of the campaign. Slovenia scraped a goalless draw against Scotland while North Macedonia were taken apart 3-0 by Switzerland, a result that already separates the group’s contenders from its strugglers.
The interesting wrinkle here is North Macedonia’s total inability to score. Across their last five internationals they have found the net exactly zero times, shipping eleven goals in the process. Slovenia, by contrast, managed three separate goalscoring matches in that same span. That gap alone tells punters plenty about where the value sits.
Watch Andraž Šporar for Slovenia. He logged 74 minutes and a pair of shots against Scotland and remains the side’s most direct route to goal when the wide players struggle to break down a low block. On the Macedonian side, Enis Bardhi is the one player capable of unlocking a stubborn Slovenian back line through his passing range, even if his teammates have offered him little support in front of goal lately.
Hot stat: North Macedonia have failed to score in five consecutive fixtures, conceding eleven goals in that stretch. No side in this group looks more blunt in the final third right now, and that trend is the backbone of our prediction below.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League B Group 1 |
| 🗓️ Date: | 29.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Slovenia vs North Macedonia prediction
We predict Slovenia to win this one, and not by a slim margin either. North Macedonia have not troubled a goalkeeper meaningfully in five matches, and Slovenia, even in a stodgy 0-0 with Scotland, created enough half-chances through Šporar and Danijel Sturm to suggest the goals will eventually come against weaker opposition. To be honest, backing Slovenia alongside Under 2.5 goals feels like the sharper combination rather than piling into a big-scoreline punt, since Slovenia themselves have struggled for fluency in attack this year.
Slovenia have picked up 3 yellow cards and 15 fouls across their sample of recent matches, a touch more physical than North Macedonia’s 4 cards from 10 fouls, though neither side looks reckless. Slovenia also lead 5-0 on corners in the data we hold, hinting at more sustained pressure through wide areas, which lines up with our lean toward a Slovenia-dominated, low-event match rather than an end-to-end shootout.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Slovenia to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Slovenia arrive off a 0-0 draw with Scotland, a result that fits their recent pattern of tight, low-scoring games against sides of similar or greater quality. Before that they lost 1-2 to Croatia, drew 1-1 with Cyprus, beat Montenegro 3-2 and lost 0-1 to Hungary. That is one win, two draws and two losses across their last five, a modest return but one built mostly against tougher opposition than North Macedonia will offer here. In our preview of Slovenia vs Scotland we called Scotland on the draw no bet as the value angle alongside a low-scoring script, and the 0-0 result meant that pick pushed rather than won outright, though the tight, goal-shy match we expected did play out almost exactly as forecast.
North Macedonia go into this match on the back of a 0-3 loss to Switzerland, extending a run that also includes a 0-4 defeat to Turkey, a 0-0 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina, a 0-0 stalemate against Ireland and a 0-4 hammering by Denmark. Zero wins, two draws and three losses, with zero goals scored in any of them, paints a grim picture heading into Bergen. In our preview of North Macedonia vs Switzerland we called a comfortable Switzerland win by two goals or more paired with BTTS No, and the 0-3 final score delivered exactly that.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Slovenia and North Macedonia have no recent competitive meetings in our records, so there is no head-to-head sample to draw statistics from for this preview.
🚨Check out our dedicated Slovenia vs North Macedonia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Slovenia the favourite
- Moneyline Slovenia 1.66 | North Macedonia 5.53
- Draw 3.66
Bookmakers price Slovenia as clear favourites, and rightly so given the gulf in recent attacking output. A price near 1.66 on the home win looks fair rather than generous, reflecting that Slovenia still need to prove they can convert chances against inferior sides. North Macedonia’s price beyond 5.50 tells its own story about how little confidence the market has in their ability to turn this around away from home.
Possible Starting Lineups
Slovenia possible starting eleven
- GK: Jan Oblak
- DF: Erik Janža, Žan Karničnik, Jaka Bijol, David Brekalo
- MF: Adam Gnezda Čerin, Timi Elsnik, Sandi Lovric, Mark Zabukovnik
- FW: Andraž Šporar, Danijel Sturm
Bostjan Cesar tends to stick with his 4-4-2 shape, and the personnel above played the bulk of the minutes against Scotland. Šporar remains the player to watch given his shot volume, while Oblak’s presence between the posts should keep Slovenia’s defensive shape tidy even if North Macedonia manage a spell of pressure.
North Macedonia possible starting eleven
- GK: Stole Dimitrievski
- DF: Visar Musliu, Sebastian Herera, Gjoko Zajkov, Andrej Stojchevski
- MF: Elif Elmas, Enis Bardhi, Matej Gashtarov, Tihomir Kostadinov, Agon Elezi
- FW: Bojan Miovski
Goce Sedloski’s 4-2-3-1 leans heavily on Bardhi and Elmas to create anything from midfield, with Miovski left isolated as the lone forward. Miovski is the man to watch simply because he is the only realistic outlet for a team that has struggled to string attacking sequences together all year.
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Slovenia. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Slovenia to win this Group 1 fixture, most likely by a one or two-goal margin rather than in a rout. North Macedonia’s scoreless run over five matches is the single biggest factor pushing us toward Slovenia to win to nil, and Under 2.5 goals covers the possibility that Slovenia themselves need time to break down a defensive-minded Macedonian setup. Perhaps the visitors nick a set piece somewhere along the way, but on the balance of recent form and squad quality, Slovenia’s punters should walk away satisfied here.
Read Also: Predicted Lineups: Slovenia vs North Macedonia – Expected XIs and Team News
