Liam Duckstein
Shandong Taishan welcome Yunnan Yukun to Jinan in what looks like a deceptively tricky home fixture. Taishan sit fifth in the Chinese Super League table, but their defensive record has been a concern all season, conceding 16 goals in just 16 league games. Yunnan, meanwhile, have quietly built momentum and arrive having won both of their matches in the last 30 days.
Two players stand out heading into this match. For Shandong, Jose Joaquim de Carvalho has been in outstanding form, contributing five goals and two assists across his last three outings. On the visiting side, Oscar Maritu grabbed a brace in Yunnan’s most recent match and will be the primary threat on the counter-attack.
The hot stat from recent fixtures belongs to Shandong: they put five goals past both Liaoning Tieren and Guangxi Hengchen in back-to-back matches, showing their attack can be clinical when the opposition allows them space.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Chinese Super League 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Jinan |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 13:35 CEST |
Shandong Taishan vs Yunnan Yukun Prediction
Shandong Taishan are the clear bookmaker favourites at home, and that pricing makes sense on paper. They play at the Jinan Olympic Sports Center, have a stronger squad depth, and their attack has been capable of big numbers. The concern is consistency. They lost to Beijing Guoan 0-2 just days ago and have drawn eight of their 16 league matches this season, suggesting they struggle to close out games convincingly.
Yunnan Yukun have shown they can hurt anyone. Their 4-0 win over Shandong in the first meeting of this season in the Chinese Super League 2026 is hard to ignore. They also beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-0, a side currently sitting second in the table. Jordi Vinyals has his team organised and dangerous on the break.
We predict Shandong Taishan to win this match, but not comfortably. Their home advantage and attacking quality should be enough, though Yunnan will create chances. Both teams scoring looks very likely given Taishan’s defensive frailties and Yukun’s attacking output in recent weeks.
Shandong commit fouls regularly and Yunnan tend to exploit set-piece situations. With Taishan averaging a relatively low pass accuracy across their last five matches and Yunnan’s 4-2-3-1 setup designed to press and transition quickly, this game could be open and end with goals at both ends.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Shandong Taishan to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Shandong Taishan have had a mixed recent run. They beat Liaoning Tieren 5-1 and Guangxi Hengchen 5-0 in two of their last five games, but lost 0-1 to Chengdu Better City and 0-2 to Beijing Guoan. The draw with Wuhan Three Towns 3-3 further shows how difficult it is for Han Peng’s side to hold leads. Their last five matches brought 10 goals scored but also showed a team that leaks chances far too easily. The 0-2 home defeat to Beijing Guoan is the most recent result and raises real questions about their defensive shape ahead of this match.
Yunnan Yukun’s recent form is more encouraging. A 4-2 win over Suzhou Dongwu in their latest outing was a statement performance. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Wuhan Three Towns and lost 2-3 to Qingdao Youth Island, but they also beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 in a result that showed their ability to grind out wins against quality opposition. Over their last five matches, they have won two, drawn one, and lost two, with their attack looking sharp when given space to operate. Oscar Maritu and Fei Ernanduo both got on the scoresheet in the Suzhou game, and Yunnan’s front line looks capable of doing damage against Shandong’s shaky defence.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have met three times in recent seasons, and Yunnan have the edge in that record. Their 4-0 win over Shandong in the reverse fixture of this very season is the standout result.
| Statistic | Shandong Taishan | Yunnan Yukun |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 8 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Shandong Taishan vs Yunnan Yukun stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Shandong Taishan the Favourite
- Moneyline Shandong Taishan 1.60 | Yunnan Yukun 4.50
- Draw 4.40
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
The moneyline odds around 1.60 for Shandong reflect their home status and superior squad ranking, but to be honest, those odds look a little tight given their inconsistency this season and Yunnan’s head-to-head record. Yunnan at 4.50 offers real value if you trust their recent form. The draw at 4.40 is also worth considering, given that Shandong have drawn eight of their 16 league games. The best value bet in this match sits with the “Shandong to win and both teams to score” combination, which accounts for both sides’ attacking and defensive tendencies.
Possible Starting Lineups
Shandong Taishan Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Wang Dalei
- DF: Liu Yang, Zheng Zheng, Gao Zhunyi, Peng Xiao
- MF: Guilherme Miranda Madruga Gomes, Mewlan Mijit, Huang Zhengyu
- FW: Valeri Qazaishvili, Jose Joaquim de Carvalho, Xie Wenneng
Shandong line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape, consistent with their recent matches. Wang Dalei is the undisputed first choice in goal and has made nine saves across his last three appearances. The midfield pivot of Guilherme Miranda and Mewlan Mijit provides the base for Taishan’s build-up play. Up front, Jose Joaquim de Carvalho is the main man to watch, with five goals in his last three games. Valeri Qazaishvili operates as a creative force behind him, contributing two goals and two assists recently.
Yunnan Yukun Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Bao Yaxiong
- DF: Andrei Burcă, Yang Zihao, Yi Teng, Zhang Xiangshuo
- MF: Caio Vinicius da Conceição, Ye Chugui, Zhang Yufeng, Sun Xuelong
- FW: Oscar Maritu, Fei Ernanduo
Yunnan set up in a 4-2-3-1 as well, with Bao Yaxiong starting in goal. Andrei Burcă anchors the backline and brings experience to a defence that will need to be disciplined against Shandong’s attack. Oscar Maritu leads the line and scored twice in the last match, making him the primary danger man. Ye Chugui and Zhang Yufeng provide creative support from midfield, with both registering assists in recent outings.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Yunnan Yukun. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
This match carries more risk for Shandong Taishan than the odds suggest. Yunnan beat them 4-0 earlier this season, and their attack has been sharp in recent weeks. Shandong’s home record offers some comfort, but their defence has been soft all season, conceding 16 goals in 16 league games.
We predict a Shandong Taishan win, with both teams scoring. De Carvalho and Qazaishvili have the quality to punish Yunnan’s backline, but Oscar Maritu and the visiting attack will find space in behind. A 2-1 or 3-2 scoreline feels like the most likely outcome, reflecting the attacking nature of both sides and the defensive vulnerabilities on display throughout the season.
