Levi Rothermund
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Schalke sit second from bottom with just six points from seven games, and their attack has basically gone silent. One goal in five matches tells its own story. Leipzig arrive in decent shape too, sitting fifth and winning four of their last six outings, though their own defense has leaked goals in bursts against bigger sides.
Here’s the interesting wrinkle: Leipzig’s recent scorelines look wildly inconsistent. A 4-0 romp over Elversberg sits right next to a 1-6 hammering from Bayern Munich. They can score for fun, but they also leave the door open at the back, something Schalke, blunt as they’ve been, might actually need to exploit.
Watch Kenan Karaman for Schalke. He’s their most involved forward in recent weeks, the only player on the roster with a goal contribution in this sample, and he’ll need to carry a quiet attack almost alone. On the other side, Christoph Baumgartner has been a genuine spark for Leipzig, three goals in just three appearances, and if he starts, he’s the one Schalke’s defense must track closely.
Hot stat: Leipzig have scored nine goals across their last five matches while Schalke have managed just one, despite Schalke racking up 31 shots in that same stretch. That gap between shot volume and actual end product sums up Schalke’s season so far, and it’s honestly hard to see it fixing itself in one match.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 31.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:30 CEST |
Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig prediction
We lean Leipzig here, but not by a landslide margin. The away side have won four of their last six, scored freely against weaker domestic and cup opponents, and sit comfortably mid-table with a plus-nine goal difference. Schalke, meanwhile, have scored once in five games and sit 15th. Our pick is Leipzig to win, though we’d hesitate to back a heavy handicap given how open Leipzig’s defense can be when stretched.
Stylistically these two differ quite a bit. Leipzig’s squad data shows far higher shot volume, 66 total shots across the sample against Schalke’s 31, and a noticeably cleaner passing game, over 2,100 passes compared to Schalke’s 1,656. Schalke do pick up more fouls per match relatively, which could mean more set-piece opportunities for Leipzig given their 71 free kicks won in five matches. Expect Leipzig to dominate possession and territory, with Schalke likely sitting deeper and hoping to nick something on the break or from a dead ball.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | RB Leipzig to win & Over 2.5 corners for Leipzig alone |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Schalke’s last five results read loss, draw, loss, loss, win, and the most recent outing was a 0-2 defeat to Dynamo Dresden. In our preview of Dynamo Dresden vs Schalke 04 we leaned toward Dresden avoiding defeat and flagged a narrow Dresden win as a live outcome while warning against backing Schalke outright, and the 0-2 scoreline backed that caution up pretty well. Before that, a goalless draw with Köln and a 0-1 loss to Mainz confirm the same pattern: shots without end product. Karaman remains their only consistent attacking threat, and Loris Karius has at least kept them competitive between the posts.
Leipzig’s form sequence shows win, win, loss, loss, win across their last five, with that 2-1 victory over RW Essen the most recent result. In our preview of RW Essen vs RB Leipzig we called for a one-sided scoreline, maybe 0-3 or 1-4, and a comfortable cover of a -1.5 handicap with goals flowing over 2.5. The actual 2-1 only just crossed the goals line and Leipzig didn’t come close to covering that handicap margin, so that particular call went against us. Still, the underlying attacking numbers, Baumgartner’s hot streak and Nusa’s three assists in five games, suggest Leipzig’s firepower is real even when results look tighter than expected.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides haven’t met in a recent competitive fixture based on the data available to us, so there’s no head-to-head table to build from recent form here.
🚨Check out our dedicated Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: RB Leipzig the favourite
- Moneyline Schalke 04 3.90 | RB Leipzig 1.83
- Draw 4.00
Bookmakers price Leipzig around 51% to win this, and honestly that tracks with the underlying numbers. Schalke’s odds near 3.90 feel fair given their goal drought, not generous enough to be tempting as an outright bet, in our view. The draw sitting close to 4.00 reflects how unpredictable Leipzig’s defense has looked lately, even against weaker sides.
Possible Starting Lineups
Schalke 04 possible starting eleven
- GK: Loris Karius
- DF: Hasan Kuruçay, Nikola Katić, Timo Becker, Vitalie Becker
- MF: Satoshi Tanaka, Soufiane El-Faouzi, Adil Aouchiche, Junior Dina Ebimbe
- FW: Hwang Hee-Chan, Edin Džeko
Muslic has largely stuck with a 4-2-3-1 shape over the last five matches, and these names carry the most minutes in that system. Karius is the clear number one, Kuruçay and Katić anchor the back line with the most defensive work rate on the roster. Karaman’s absence from this XI by raw appearances is notable, but he’s still the player we’d watch closest if he gets the nod, given he’s Schalke’s only real goal threat this season.
RB Leipzig possible starting eleven
- GK: Maarten Vandevoordt
- DF: Willi Orbán, Castello Lukeba, David Raum, Ridle Baku
- MF: Neil El Aynaoui, Ezechiel Banzuzi, Antonio Nusa, Brajan Gruda, Christoph Baumgartner
- FW: Rômulo Cardoso da Cruz
Demichelis keeps faith with a 4-2-3-1 as well, and Vandevoordt’s 22 saves across five games confirm he’s the trusted keeper. Orbán and Lukeba have barely missed a minute at the back. Up top, Baumgartner’s three goals in three starts make him the player to watch, while Nusa’s creativity from the wing, three assists already, gives Leipzig width Schalke will struggle to match.
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Schalke 04. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We think Leipzig edge this one, maybe 2-1 or 2-0, without needing to be at their absolute best. Schalke’s defense isn’t terrible on paper, but their attack has no teeth right now, and that’s the bigger problem heading into a home game they probably need to win just to stop the slide. Our punters team leans toward Leipzig to win and under 3.5 goals, backing the shot volume and recent scoring trend from Baumgartner and Nusa over any romantic idea of a Schalke upset. Keep an eye on team news too, if Karaman sits out, Schalke’s attacking ceiling drops even further.
