Liam Duckstein
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Rot-Weiss Essen welcome RB Leipzig to the Stadion Essen for a Round 2 DFB Pokal tie that looks lopsided on paper. The underdog tag suits Essen fine, this is exactly the sort of fixture where lower-league sides dream of a cup shock.
Leipzig arrive carrying a strange split in form. Domestically they have been ruthless, hammering Frankfurt 6-0 and brushing past Elversberg 4-0, yet in continental competition they shipped ten goals across just two games against Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. That contrast matters here because Essen will not offer the quality those European giants did, but the data shows Leipzig’s defense can wobble when pushed.
Keep an eye on Christopher Nkunku for Leipzig, he has scored three goals in four appearances and looks sharp enough to punish any hesitation at the back. For Essen, Semir Telalovic offers the biggest attacking threat with a goal and an assist from his last three outings, and he will need a big performance if the hosts want any sniff of an upset.
Hot stat: RB Leipzig netted 13 goals across their last five matches overall, yet ten of the goals they conceded in that same stretch came in just two Champions League fixtures against Real Madrid and Bayern. Domestically, almost nobody is scoring on them.
| 🏆 Tournament: | DFB Pokal 2026/27, Round 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stadion Essen, Essen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 27.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:00 CEST |
RW Essen vs RB Leipzig prediction
We predict RB Leipzig to win comfortably here. Their 78% implied bookmaker probability is not just hype, it reflects a squad operating two divisions above Essen in quality and a domestic record that includes a 6-0 and a 4-0 win inside the last five matches. Essen’s own form sits at a modest 40% winrate over the last 30 days, with two draws against sides far weaker than Leipzig.
Essen have fouled more and drawn more cards relative to their shot output, a sign of a team that defends through physicality rather than control. Leipzig’s pass accuracy sits comfortably ahead too, their completed passes against total attempts suggest a side that keeps the ball and tires opponents out over 90 minutes. Expect Leipzig to dominate possession, limit clean chances for Essen, and convert their own volume of shots into goals, perhaps three or more by the final whistle.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | RB Leipzig to win & Over 3.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
RW Essen’s last five results read win, loss, win, draw, draw, a mixed bag that shows resilience but also fragility against decent opposition. Their most recent outing, a 1-0 win over Regensburg, was tidy defensively, but the two draws before that, 3-3 against Preussen Munster and 2-2 versus Arminia Bielefeld, expose a back line that concedes freely once pressed. Against a side with Leipzig’s attacking depth, that trend is a real concern for the hosts.
RB Leipzig’s last five matches show three wins and two losses, both defeats coming against elite European opposition in Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. Their most recent fixture, a 4-0 demolition of Elversberg, confirmed that domestic business remains straightforward for Martin Demichelis’ side. In our preview of RB Leipzig vs Elversberg we called a Leipzig win with both teams scoring, and the 4-0 scoreline went against that BTTS lean since Elversberg failed to score, though Leipzig’s win itself landed exactly as expected.
🚨Check out our dedicated RW Essen vs RB Leipzig stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: RB Leipzig the favourite
- Moneyline RW Essen 11.00 | RB Leipzig 1.15
- Draw 6.50
The moneyline odds leave almost no room for debate, bookmakers price Leipzig as close to a sure thing, and the underlying stats back that view up. Essen’s price at 11.00 reflects a punt rather than a genuine expectation, backing the draw at 6.50 feels like the only way to get any value on the home side without betting against the obvious quality gap.
Possible Starting Lineups
RW Essen possible starting eleven
- GK: Jakob Golz
- DF: Jose-Enrique Rios Alonso, Lucas Brumme, Michael Kostka, Janne Sietan
- MF: Noah Pesch, Ruben Seyram Reisig, Dickson Abiama, Semir Telalovic, Marvin Obuz
- FW: Jaka Cuber Potocnik
Uwe Koschinat sticks with his usual 4-2-3-1, leaning on the same back four that has played every minute across the last four matches. Telalovic gets the nod in the attacking midfield band given his recent scoring form, he is the one player capable of creating something out of nothing against a much stronger back line.
RB Leipzig possible starting eleven
- GK: Maarten Vandevoordt
- DF: David Raum, Willi Orbán, Castello Junior Lukeba, Ridle Baku
- MF: Nicolas Seiwald, Neil El Aynaoui, Antonio Nusa, Brajan Gruda, Ezechiel Banzuzi
- FW: Tidiam Gomis
Martin Demichelis also favours 4-2-3-1, and his double pivot of Seiwald and El Aynaoui has barely missed a minute over the last five matches. Gomis leads the line on appearances and goals, but do not be surprised if Nkunku gets introduced from the bench to add fresh legs against a tiring Essen defense.
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RB Leipzig. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a routine night for RB Leipzig, perhaps a 0-3 or 1-4 scoreline given how comfortably they have dispatched weaker domestic opponents this season. Essen’s inconsistent defensive record, two draws conceding five goals combined in their last two home-type fixtures, suggests they will struggle to contain Leipzig’s attacking midfield trio. To be hones, this looks like a one-sided cup tie, and our value lean sits with Leipzig covering a -1.5 handicap and the match going well over 2.5 goals.
