Sofia Quijada
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Santos Laguna sit 11th in the Apertura table but arrive on the back of four wins in five, while Necaxa prop up 17th place and haven’t tasted victory in their last five outings. The gap in points (19 to 10) looks modest, but the gap in current form is wide. Oddly enough, Necaxa have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings against Santos, so the home side’s recent dominance doesn’t carry over to this fixture historically, something bettors should weigh before piling onto the favourite.
Tahiel Adrian Jimenez has been the difference-maker for Santos, scoring five goals across his last four appearances and leading the forward line with real purpose. For Necaxa, Julián Carranza remains the one attacker capable of unlocking a stubborn defense, even if his supporting cast has struggled to create clean looks.
Hot stat: Necaxa have failed to win any of their last five matches, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in that span, a 0% winrate that is the worst current run in the league right now.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga MX 2026 Apertura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio TSM Corona, Torreon |
| 🗓️ Date: | 02.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:00 CEST |
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa prediction
We predict Santos Laguna win this one, and comfortably. Four victories in five, a 5-0 demolition of Queretaro, and a near-flawless home record this month build a strong case, while Necaxa have scored just four goals combined in their last five matches. Backing Santos Laguna on the moneyline paired with over 2.5 goals feels like the sharper combination, since the hosts average two goals per game in their current run and Necaxa rarely keep clean sheets even against weaker attacks.
Santos Laguna’s style leans on control, posting 89% pass accuracy in their last five matches against Necaxa’s 78%, and committing fewer fouls per game (9.6 vs 11.2). Necaxa pick up more yellow cards per fixture too, suggesting a side chasing the game rather than dictating it. That disconnect between possession and discipline usually favors the team doing the chasing, and here that’s clearly Santos.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Santos Laguna to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Santos Laguna’s last outing ended in a jarring 4-1 defeat to Club Tijuana, snapping a four-match winning run that included a 5-0 rout of Queretaro and a 2-0 win over Pumas. In our preview of Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna we leaned toward the away side staying unbeaten, and the 4-1 scoreline went firmly against that call. Still, the underlying numbers from that stretch, strong passing accuracy and a sharp finishing touch from Jimenez, suggest the loss was more of a blip than a trend reversal.
Necaxa’s most recent match was a 1-1 draw with Juarez, a side that had conceded 32 goals in 13 games coming in. In our preview of Necaxa vs Juarez we called a Necaxa win with goals, and the 1-1 result went against that primary verdict. Before that draw, Necaxa lost three straight to Chivas, Atlas, and Club America, conceding seven goals combined, a run that points to real defensive issues heading into Torreon.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Santos Laguna | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 7 | 12 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Santos Laguna vs Necaxa stats page for more info.
Necaxa. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Santos Laguna the favourite
- Moneyline Santos Laguna 1.76 | Necaxa 3.80
- Draw 3.95
Bovada’s 1.76 on Santos Laguna reflects roughly 57% implied probability, which lines up with their form advantage this month. The 3.80 price on Necaxa looks generous given their winless run, but their shot volume in recent matches (63 shots over five games) shows they aren’t completely toothless, just inefficient. We see value on the home side rather than the long-shot upset.
Possible Starting Lineups
Santos Laguna possible starting eleven
- GK: Carlos Acevedo
- DF: Felipe Sánchez, Franco Pardo, Mauricio Cuevas, Efrain Orona
- MF: Facundo Cáseres, Ezequiel Bullaude, Francisco Villalba, Aldo Lopez, Javier Guemez
- FW: Tahiel Adrian Jimenez
Renato Paiva’s 4-1-4-1 relies on Cáseres anchoring the midfield with 300-plus passes in recent games, while Bullaude and Villalba carry the creative load. Jimenez, with five goals in his last four matches, is the clear focal point up top and the player most likely to decide this one.
Necaxa possible starting eleven
- GK: Christopher Andrade
- DF: Agustin Oliveros, Carlos Vargas, Kaiky Marques Naves, Emilio Martínez, Diego Ochoa
- MF: Danny Leyva, Owen González, Javier Ruiz, Lorenzo Faravelli
- FW: Julián Carranza
Juan Reynoso’s 5-4-1 packs the back line defensively, with Oliveros the most consistent presence across the last five matches. Carranza plays alone up top and must create his own chances, a tough ask against a Santos defense that’s kept two clean sheets in its last five.
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Santos Laguna. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
Santos Laguna’s recent form, home comfort, and sharper finishing make them clear favourites here, and we expect that advantage to show on the scoreboard. Necaxa’s inability to win in five matches, paired with a leaky defense that has shipped 27 goals this season, points toward another difficult night on the road. We predict a Santos Laguna win by at least two goals, with over 2.5 total goals landing and BTTS leaning toward no given Necaxa’s recent scoring drought. Perhaps the only worry for Santos is complacency after Tijuana punished them for exactly that, but on current trajectory, the hosts should take this comfortably.
