Sofia Quijada
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Necaxa welcome Juarez to Estadio Victoria in a fixture between the two worst teams in the Apertura table. Necaxa sit 17th with 9 points, Juarez prop up the division with just 4 from 13 games. The interesting angle here is history at this venue: Necaxa have not lost to Juarez in their last three meetings, winning one and drawing two, and Juarez have managed just three goals combined across those games. Both sides arrive out of form, but one of them has to pick up points eventually, and we think the home side is better placed to do it this weekend.
Julián Carranza has been Necaxa’s only reliable source of goals lately, scoring twice and setting up another in his last four appearances, and he leads the squad in shots on top of that. Oscar Estupiñan carries almost the entire attacking burden for Juarez, racking up nine shots in his last four games while his side has managed only one goal elsewhere from open play. Juarez have conceded 32 goals in 13 league matches this season, the worst defensive record in Liga MX, and that single stat tells most of the story about where this fixture is heading.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Liga MX 2026 Apertura, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:00 CEST |
Necaxa vs Juarez prediction
We predict Necaxa win this one, and the case is straightforward once you line up the numbers. Juarez have won just once all season, have lost 11 of 13 league games, and have scored only eight goals total. Necaxa’s own form is poor too, but they have scored five goals in their last five matches against Juarez’s two, and they hold a clear home record over this exact opponent. The value sits with Necaxa on the moneyline, perhaps combined with Necaxa to win either half, given how often Juarez concede early.
Discipline could shape the game at the margins. Juarez picked up 15 yellow cards and a red in their last five outings against Necaxa’s nine yellows, suggesting Tomás Campos’ side are chasing games and committing cynical fouls under pressure. Necaxa also out-shoot Juarez heavily, 62 attempts to 36 across the same span, which backs up the idea that Necaxa create more and should convert at least some of that volume at home.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Julián Carranza to score or assist |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Necaxa’s last match ended 0-1 against Chivas Guadalajara, their fourth defeat in five outings, and it followed a 0-2 home loss to Atlas before that. In our preview of Necaxa vs Atlas we called Atlas to edge the match by a single goal with both teams scoring, and the 0-2 result half delivered it. Atlas won as expected, but Necaxa failed to find the net, so the BTTS side of that call missed. Before the Atlas defeat, Necaxa drew 3-3 with Pachuca and lost 2-4 to Club America, a run that shows a side still capable of scoring but consistently porous at the back, which fits their league-worst minus 11 goal difference.
Juarez’s last match was a 0-1 loss away to Atlante, their fifth defeat in six games. Before that they were beaten 0-5 by Cruz Azul, a result we covered directly. In our preview of Cruz Azul vs Juarez we called Cruz Azul to win comfortably with goals at both ends, and the 0-5 scoreline confirmed the win and the goal tally, though Juarez never scored themselves, so the BTTS portion of that call fell short. Juarez did draw 1-1 with Club Tijuana two matches before that, their only point in the last four, and lost to Club Leon in between. The pattern is clear: Juarez concede constantly and rarely trouble opposing goalkeepers.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Necaxa | Juarez |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 3 meetings) | 6 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Necaxa vs Juarez stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Necaxa the favourite
- Moneyline Necaxa 1.69 | Juarez 4.25
- Draw 3.85
Bookmakers price Necaxa at roughly 54% to win, with Juarez given only 22%. That gap looks fair given the table positions, but it undersells Necaxa’s own defensive issues, so we are not rushing to back short odds on the home win alone. Backing Necaxa alongside a goals market, as we outlined above, offers better combined value than the straight moneyline price.
Possible Starting Lineups
Necaxa possible starting eleven
- GK: Luis Jiménez
- DF: Diego Ochoa, Carlos Vargas, Emilio Martínez, Kaiky Marques Naves
- MF: Danny Leyva, Matias Espindola, Owen González, Javier Ruiz, Lorenzo Faravelli
- FW: Julián Carranza
Juan Reynoso has leaned on Diego Ochoa and Danny Leyva as the backbone of his 4-1-4-1 in recent weeks, with Leyva shielding the back four and Carranza left isolated but productive up top. Espindola and González add the goal threat from deeper positions that Carranza alone cannot provide.
Juarez possible starting eleven
- GK: Sebastián Jurado
- DF: Gilberto Sepulveda, Daniel Piña, Jesus Murillo, Eder Lopez, Manuel Mayorga
- MF: Denzell Garcia, Ricardo Oliveira, José Luis Rodríguez
- FW: Oscar Estupiñan, Madson de Souza Silva
Tomás Campos sticks with a back five in the 5-3-2 shape, with Jurado busy between the posts given how often Juarez face shots. Estupiñan remains the focal point up front, and how much service Garcia and Oliveira can supply from midfield will decide whether Juarez create anything at all at Estadio Victoria.
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Necaxa. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Necaxa take this at home. Juarez’s defense has leaked 32 goals in 13 games and their attack has produced only eight, a combination that rarely survives a trip to a side that has scored five in its last five. We lean toward Necaxa winning with over 2.5 total goals and BTTS landing on the no side, since Juarez’s scoring touch has deserted them almost entirely. Carranza remains the player most likely to decide this one, and to be honest, Necaxa’s home record against this exact opponent is the clearest edge on the board this round.
